Every AL Team’s Biggest Fantasy Bust

There is no such thing as the perfect fantasy draft. Even national contest winners in fields of 3,000 teams will have drafted several busts or players who haven’t earned their value. We can still win our leagues despite making numerous mistakes in the draft. In fact, leagues will be won this year by teams who may have even drafted two busts in the first two rounds — the 2026 top 24 has been historically bad. A drafter could have started with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but could have a monster lead on second place if they drafted Dillon Dingler, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler and FAAB’d Jacob Latz, Parker Messick, Liam Hicks and Kody Clemens.

Though in-season free-agent pickups will not always save us, take a look at my worst of four NFBC Online Championship (OC) drafts, a 12-team national contest:

Acuña, Lindor, Anthony, Ragans, Glasnow, Marsee, Santana, Woodruff, Domínguez, Burrows, O’Hoppe — it doesn’t get any worse than this. I picked up Emerson Hancock (Week 2), Miguel Vargas and Jacob Latz (Week 6), Logan Henderson (Week 7), Shane Baz (Week 9), J.T. Realmuto (Week 10), Kodai Senga (Week 14), Trent Grisham (Week 15), Henry Bolte (Week 18), Noah Cameron (Week 19) and Juan Soto two weeks ago. I’m fighting until the end, but it will make no difference as I recently climbed out from 11th place to ninth.

There are lessons to be learned looking at past drafts. Sometimes our squads are hit with a heap of bad luck in the form of major injuries. Sometimes that shows us that we need to alter our draft style to mitigate this risk. Since I usually draft several teams in the OC, I tend to be less risk-averse than I would be in a 15-team Main Event or a stand-alone industry league. What are the chances that a team filled with oft-injured hitters like Byron Buxton, Luis Robert Jr., Tyler O’Neill and Tyler Glasnow does well? Usually, quite low, because we’re compounding risk instead of balancing it with lower-upside, higher-floor picks. At the time of this draft, all of my draft picks up until Josh Hader were healthy, though there was plenty of risk compounded. Combine this with more compounded risk with my next 10 picks and I put myself in an immediate hole I could never climb out of.

Let’s review each team’s biggest fantasy bust. Even though there is a month of action remaining and there may be slight stat-salvaging with a few of these players, it is fair to say these players have crushed fantasy squads.

ADP is from NFBC Online Championship leagues drafted from March 1 – March 27, 153 total.

AL West

• Seattle Mariners – Cal Raleigh, C (ADP 19)
• Texas Rangers – Corey Seager, SS (95)
• Houston Astros – Jose Altuve, 2B/OF (118)
• Los Angeles Angels – Logan O’Hoppe, OF (248)
• Sacramento Athletics – Lawrence Butler, OF (155)

There may not have been a bigger nightmare draft selection than a second-round Cal Raleigh. He missed a month and played hurt. Some might blame it on him not shaking teammate Randy Arozarena’s hand at the WBC. However we justify, it’s been horrendous. Raleigh is the only qualified hitter under the Mendoza line, and he’s way under, with a .171 batting average. He’s been striking out at a near-32% clip, and 224 players have scored more runs than his 35, including summer call-ups (Esmerlyn Valdez and Cole Carrigg) and bench-riders (Edouard Julien, who hasn’t played consistently since June). Raleigh has picked it up of late, crushing six homers in his last seven games. No one expected Raleigh to hit 60 again. Models regressed his projections fairly, but Raleigh’s season turned into a worst-case scenario, as managers couldn’t drop him or easily bench him.

Expect Corey Seager to get the “never again” treatment from thousands of fantasy managers next season. There were likely thousands who avoided him this draft season. The 32-year-old can’t stay healthy for an extended period. Between the IL stints and the .221 batting average, it’s been another rough one.

Jose Altuve was actually a prominent draft-day “fade” across the industry and I recall that he was always available after his ADP in my drafts. The 36-year-old hasn’t declined all that much in his underlying metrics (EV, BRL, HH, ISO this season were all similar to last season’s rates), but the roto 5×5 production drop-off has been stark. Altuve will fall to an area of drafts beyond 200 ADP next season.

There weren’t many high draft capital picks on the Angels other than Zach Neto (35-50 ADP range) and Jo Adell (120-140). The one trap wasn’t a big deal because his ADP was after 225, but Logan O’Hoppe surely did suck a few of us in with the offseason Driveline work. He started the season off poorly (1 HR, .051 ISO in 93 PA) before fracturing his wrist, then had several setbacks with that injury, a concussion, and was eventually traded to the Texas Rangers — all in all, a lost season. Nevertheless, I’m willing to be suckered back in the last couple of rounds if I’m looking for power from a C2 and he has that job as the Rangers primary catcher.

The Athletics have been fully snakebit as their top five hitters (Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson) season’s ended prematurely. It’s particularly unfortunate given some of their per-AB production when healthy and the home park boost. Lawrence Butler suckered many of us in because “he’s done it before”, but when the A’s core was healthy, Butler was no more than a platoon or bench bat who was massively underperforming. Even his wRC+ against righties (95) has been below average.

AL Central

• Chicago White Sox – Seranthony Domínguez, RP (192)
• Detroit Tigers – Framber Valdez, SP (80)
• Cleveland Guardians – José Ramírez, 3B (6)
• Minnesota Twins – None
• Kansas City Royals – Carlos Estévez, RP (123)

One of the preseason calls I got right was that Seranthony Domínguez would be a bust. Ignore that drafted share in the screenshot above — that was my only share. He was available way past his ADP. I needed a healthy closer to cover for Josh Hader. FOMO made me do it (excuses, excuses). Despite signing the big one-year contract, my issue with Domínguez was his volatility with control, a high walk rate, and the fact that Grant Taylor was in the picture.

Framber Valdez’s market price rose when he signed with the Tigers, and he has fallen way short of expectations — a 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and a huge reduction in strikeout rate — from 23-25% the last few seasons to 17.5% so far this season.

José Ramírez has 31 stolen bases, but his power has dropped off, he’s missed chunks of games, and has likely been playing hurt. He’s been as safe as it gets as a first round pick, and there will be a slight discount next season, but Father Time comes for all. Ramírez will be 34 later this month. Steven Kwan is an honorable mention here. The usually stout high-contact hitter was making plenty of contact in the first half, but had a mere .225 BA to show for it and was moved down to the nine-hole. He’s batting .376 since the All-Star break, though with just one home run. Most managers who picked him after he was dropped did so for the expected positive regression in his batting average.

The Twins don’t have an outright bust, unless we want to consider late-round stabs like Mick Abel, Matt Wallner, or never-was-the-closer, Taylor Rogers. We knew the health risks with Byron Buxton coming off a monster season and he hit 25 homers with 65 runs, so it wasn’t all bad. Luke Keaschall wasn’t a great pick in the mid-100s of a shallow second base pool, but he’s been heating up lately and back to the lead off spot. Shout out to folks who picked up working-man contributors like Josh Bell, Ryan Jeffers, Brooks Lee, and Kody Clemens.

There are some other candidates, but I don’t believe there was a team that fell shorter of draft-day expectations than the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. has been fine, but is short of top-30 overall 5×5 fantasy value and has been light on power, with just 16 home runs. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia have been plagued by hand/wrist injuries, which will provide a fantasy discount worth considering next season. Salvador Perez has been brutal. Cole Ragans is technically the biggest bust based on his top-50 ADP, but I prefer to give the nod to Estévez. His underlying metrics and price increase based on a massive season implied that we should have outright avoided him. Many fantasy analysts, including me, didn’t just imply fading him, we recommended doing so. If he does not throw another pitch this season, his stat line will go down as an all-timer: 0.1 IP – 0 W – 0 K – 162.00 ERA – 18.00 WHIP.

AL East

• Tampa Bay Rays – Ryan Pepiot (132)
• New York Yankees – Aaron Judge, OF (2)
• Boston Red Sox – tie, Garrett Crochet, SP (8), Roman Anthony, OF (50)
• Baltimore Orioles – Kyle Bradish, SP (73)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B (18)

Everything about the Rays has been cheery as the best team in the American League for most of the season. That’s why a pitcher injured before the season (Pepiot) is the closest we get to a damaging bust, and even then, there were plenty of replacement level pitchers we could have picked up in his stead in the few weeks that followed. Cedric Mullins was a post-250 pick who has been added and dropped at great volume across fantasy sites this season. We knew not to pick him up or start him when several LHPs were on the schedule. Despite easy predictability in this regard, he continues to be a batting average drain, mustering a mere .208 in 347 PAs against right-handed pitchers.

Aaron Judge was on a fine pace through the first two months. Unfortunately, holding your first round pick for the last three months is a massive blow. He won’t be judged much for it and will be an early first-round pick again next season. At least Giancarlo Stanton was affordable in drafts (250+ ADP) and an easy drop after the chip-bag-opening incident.

The way to handle the Red Sox in drafts was easy in hindsight: fade the early guys and pound the picks late — Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, Willson Contreras, Payton Tolle have all been wonderful. Crochet, Anthony, and Trevor Story were detrimental because of all the time missed and real estate they held on non-IL league benches. Jarren Duran’s front-four roto stats are decent (61 R – 19 HR – 68 RBI – 18 SB), but the .207 average stings. Most managers would not have drafted him in the sixth round of a 12-teamer if they thought he’d fall back into being a platoon hitter. There were some rough starts over his next 18 (three starts where he allowed five earned runs), but the overall ratios (3.27, 1.23) were fine.

The Orioles offense was one of my favorite to target this draft season — some Gunnar Henderson with Pete Alonso, and a mid-round Jordan Westburg or Jackson Holliday, with some late-round Colton Cowser sprinkled in — what could go wrong? Alonso has been fine, Henderson has been picking up the pace, but it was otherwise a poor decision to get on board of the Orioles train this year. The toughest pill to swallow was the Kyle Bradish one, especially for folks who waited and drafted him as their SP1. Bradish went 1-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP (11.9% walk rate) over his first nine starts. Just when things seemed to be on the right track, he gets crushed for seven runs in St. Louis last Wednesday. We’re a forgiving bunch for certain player archetypes, so don’t be surprised if a healthy Bradish next March is a top 100 overall pick again.

I’ve saved for the worst for last, which unfortunately is the almost-champ of 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays. Dylan Cease has been excellent and Kazuma Okamoto has more than paid off his low-200s ADP. The rest is a dumpster fire. There’s aging and ineffective George Springer, a not-so-healthy Trey Yesavage, a broken Addison Barger, and three high-value targets who are no longer with the club, Jeff Hoffman, Kevin Gausman, and Daulton Varsho. I also hate to remind you of the heartbreak we experienced when Cody Ponce got hurt in his first Major League start since 2021 after a scorching spring and was lost for the season. None of it is worse than having invested into a “safe, high-floor” Vladimir Guerrero Jr., going into the final month of the season with 7 HR, 48 RBI and a .258 average. I’ve heard nasty rumors about him: that he has yet to hit a home run at Rogers Centre this season. It’s not as bad as a second-round Raleigh, but it stings harder. The Mariners have scored the fewest runs in the Majors and the Blue Jays have scored the second-least. Will Guerrero fall beyond the fifth round (pick 60) in 12-teamers next season? That’s something we can debate this winter.

Next week, I’ll tackle the National League busts. If this one jolted you out of your seat, then be sure buckle up for next Tuesday!