While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

There are a ton of players that made my normal requirement to write about them. For the steady guys who have been around all year, I didn’t provide much info on them.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• David Fletcher (.674 OPS, 2 HR, 0 SB) has leadoff for three straight games.

• Jo Adell has started in seven of the last eight games and is hitting .216/.310/.333 since the All-Star break. Read the rest of this entry »

On this past weekend’s On The Wire Podcast, there was a discussion surrounding Esteury Ruiz stolen base numbers and the effect of the minor league pitch clock. The gist of the situation can be taken from this Tucker Davidson tweet thread.

Some Take Aways From the newly installed pitch clock. I’ve made 3 starts with it and each time it’s been a different experience. Overall not a fan. Let’s talk about the good and the bad. (Thread) @jjcoop36 @JeffPassan

— Tucker Davidson (@tucktuck6) April 29, 2022

The rate of stolen bases is up in the minors as soon as they implemented the change. With the numbers up, I wanted to calculate a simple rule to see how much I should expect a hitter’s stolen base rate to change once promoted, especially rabbits like Ruiz.

For the calculations, needed to set some ground rules. I limited my sample to this season’s hitters who stole four or more bases in AAA. Additionally, they had to go on and have 30 MLB plate appearances. In the end, 40 players met the requirements. I know the sample isn’t the biggest, but I’m just looking at how a hitter’s stolen base rates should change.

For the first test, I compared the stolen base attempt rate ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) in AAA and the majors. In AAA, the median stolen base rate among these guys was 19.5% and it dropped to 10.8% in the majors. When comparing the ratio change (MLB rate/AAA rate) it worked out to 53.5%. So a hitter’s stolen base rate should drop about 50%.

The next test was to look at the success rate. In AAA, this group had an 80.2% success rate and it dropped to 72.1% in the majors. A success of 80% would help a team while 72% hurts their chances of winning.

One final test, what was stolen base per plate appearance change. This value is a quick rule of thumb that takes into account attempts, success, and changes in on-base rate. This value works that the MLB rate is 43% of the AAA numbers.

So going back to Ruiz, here are his expected stolen base rates knowing what he did in AAA.

Here are the stolen base per 600 PA values for our projection systems.

His projections are close but just a little lower than the value I found. Maybe I should just follow the projections.

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

Make sure to get all the dead weight off your teams. Hitter values have changed a lot.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• David Fletcher has leadoff in the last three games he’s started since coming off the IL. The problem is that he’s started only in four of seven games.

• Jose Rojas (.275/.350/.571 with 18 HR and 5 SB in AAA) was just promoted and started in the cleanup spot.

• Mickey Moniak has started two straight in center field.

Astros

• If the lineup gets healthy, at least two regulars will sit since Aledmys Díaz (.723 OPS) got the start over Trey Mancini (.752 OPS). Going over the pair’s career stats, Mancini has a slight edge, but Diaz is a way better defender. Keep a close eye on Mancini’s playing time to see if he remains rosterable.

• Mauricio Dubón (.594 OPS) and Jake Meyers (.582 OPS) are splitting time in center field.

Athletics

• Everyone besides Ramón Laureano and Sean Murphy are in some sort of timeshare. I think they are the only two rosterable players on the team.

Blue Jays

• The playing time situation will be interesting to see how it works out with the addition of Whit Merrifield (.645 OPS). My best guess is that Santiago Espinal (.689 OPS) and Merrifield cut into each other’s playing time when everyone is healthy. Raimel Tapia‘s (.700 OPS) and Cavan Biggio’s (.701 OPS) playing times might take a hit since Merrifield can play all over the field.

Guardians

• The outfield has gotten to be a mess. Steven Kwan is cemented into the left field job and leadoff spot. Nolan Jones is only starting against righties. The team just promoted Will Benson (.278/.426/.522 with 17 HR and 16 SB) and he started in center field. Myles Straw and Oscar Gonzalez are still in the mix.

• Owen Miller (vs LHP) and Josh Naylor (vs RHP) are in a first base platoon.

Mariners

• The lineup has been set for the last four games but it’s tough to know for sure what changes will stick. During those four games, the team has only faced righties. Additionally, Julio Rodriguez (IL) and Ty France (DTD) have been out of the lineup.

• Jarred Kelenic has started three straight in center field.

• Adam Frazier is now leading off.

Orioles

• Not a ton has changed with Trey Mancini being traded away. Adley Rutschman is now the DH every time he’s not catching. When he does catch, Terrin Vavra (.324/.435/.451 with 2 HR and 5 SB in AAA) is the DH.

Rangers

• When starting, Jonah Heim bats third.

• Ezequiel Duran has started nine straight games.

• Bubba Thompson (.303/.355/.474 with 13 HR and 49 SB in AAA) debuted on Thursday and hit ninth.

Rays

• Jose Siri has started three straight in center field since being acquired from the Astros.

• Isaac Paredes (.534 OPS over the last two weeks) has started in eight of the last 10 games.

Red Sox

• Christian Arroyo (.710 OPS) has started six straight games.

• Tommy Pham has started three straight and is batting second.

• Alex Verdugo (vs RHP) and Jaylin Davis (vs LHP) might be in a left-field platoon.

• Kevin Plawecki is getting most of the catcher starts.

Royals

• Michael A. Taylor has started in 11 of 12 games while playing center field.

• Michael Massey (.325/.392/.595 with 7 HR and 4 SB in AAA) has started the last two games at second base.

• Kyle Isbel has only started in five of the last 10 games.

Tigers

• Harold Castro (.285/.315/.407 and 4 HR) has started in 13 of the last 14 games at first base.

• Eric Haase (.236 AVG, 8 HR) has started in six of the last 10 games, five at catcher.

• In five of the last seven games, Victor Reyes (.658 OPS, 0 SB) has hit second.

Twins

• Several injuries (Kepler, Sano, Kirilloff) have the lineup in flux.

• Mark Contreras (.221/.311/.399 with 10 HR and 14 SB in AAA) has started four straight.

• Nick Gordon has also started four straight (.272 AVG, 4 HR, 4 SB).

White Sox

• While a few injuries have forced some changes, as a general rule, the lineup has been steady.

Yankees

• Andrew Benintendi has started seven straight since joining the Yankees.

• Matt Carpenter has started in seven of the last 10 games.

National League

Braves

• Orlando Arcia is back to being the everyday second baseman.

Brewers

• Steady.

Cardinals

• Tommy Edman (.637 OPS, 0 HR, 3 SB over the last month) has only started in four of the last six games and has moved down to the ninth spot. He’s splitting time with Nolan Gorman at second base with Paul DeJong starting five straight at shortstop.

• Dylan Carlson has leadoff for six straight games.

Cubs

• Christopher Morel has only started in two of the last five games (both against lefties). He’s been sitting against righties even though he hits them better than his replacements.

Diamondbacks

• Jake McCarthy has started nine straight games.

• Emmanuel Rivera (.670 OPS, 6 HR in 211 PA) started the last game at third base and hit out of the six hole.

Dodgers

• James Outman (.225/.340/.475 with 5 HR and 4 SB in 97 AAA PA) has started in four of the five games since being called up from AAA.

• Miguel Vargas (.291/.382/.497 with 15 HR and 12 SB in AAA) has started just one game so far as the DH.

Giants

• Joey Bart has taken over the primary catching duties.

• Wilmer Flores and Dixon Machado 마차도 (SS) look to be the only two hitters who have full-time jobs.

Marlins

• Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday has started in nine of the last 10 games.

Mets

• Eduardo Escobar has only started in four of the last 10 games. Luis Guillorme has been starting instead.

• Tyler Naquin and Mark Canha are splitting time in left field.

Nationals

• Luis García has hit second over the last three games.

• Yadiel Hernandez has hit 3rd or 4th over the last three games. He’s also made seven straight starts.

• Josh Palacios (.299/.378/.437, 7 HR, 18 SB) has started three straight.

Padres

• Intriguing. There have only been two lineups since the Juan Soto and Josh Bell trades. Wil Myers sat against the righty and Jake Cronenworth against the lefty. And Nomar Mazara was nowhere to be found.

Phillies

• Brandon Marsh started his first game with the team in center field.

• Alec Bohm is now hitting third.

Pirates

• Ben Gamel has started in 17 straight games.

• Bligh Madris (.528 OPS) has started five straight games.

• Cal Mitchell (.593 OPS, 4 HR) has started in nine of the last 10 games.

Reds

• The team is getting revamped outfield. Donovan Solano has started four straight games, Albert Almora Jr. three, and Aristides Aquino two.

Rockies

• José Iglesias is sitting against lefties.

• The 23-year-old Elehuris Montero has started three straight after hitting .310/.392/.541 with 15 HR and 4 SB in AAA.

Just to be clear, the following players are far from the worst players traded. I’m focusing on the guys moving down in value. Some might be having great seasons (e.g. Brandon Drury) but have the biggest down arrows attached to them.

1. Raisel Iglesias (ATL): Simply, Iglesias will back up Kenley Jansen. With Jansen not being able to go back-to-back games and his propensity to get injured, Iglesias (4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.1 K/9), Iglesias should remain rostered in deeper formats. Read the rest of this entry »