Mining the News (12/23/22)

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

Jared Walsh is expected to be ready by Spring Training.

Walsh had surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, but he is also expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Astros

Michael Brantley should be ready by Spring Training and be the team’s primary DH.

Brantley won’t be able to swing until mid-January, but the Astros believe he’ll be ready when Spring Training begins one month later.

As for his role, the Astros would like to allocate more left-field playing time to Yordan Alvarez, which would shift Brantley into a more prominent DH role. There’d still be a split, but Alvarez is likely slated for more time with his glove. With Brantley back, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick should split time in center.

While I will have a share or two of Yordan Alvarez, I don’t like the idea of his knees playing a bunch in the outfield.

Orioles

• The team plans on rotating players through the DH spot.

But it was obvious then — and even more apparent now with the signing of second baseman Adam Frazier — that the club wants to keep the designated hitter role open for a rotating group of players.

If this holds, it could mean Kyle Stowers and Jorge Mateo could get a decent amount but not full-time at-bats as subs. It’s something to track during Spring Training.

Adam Frazier wants to rework his swing.

He needs to do a better job of driving his feet into the ground in the batter’s box. He wants to simplify his approach. And perhaps most importantly, he hopes to get back to spraying balls all over the field, which was a strength early in his career.

Red Sox

• There is no guarantee that Trevor Story will move back to shortstop.

Trevor Story at shortstop is not a foregone conclusion for the Red Sox.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has singled out Story as a replacement candidate for Xander Bogaerts, but various voices in the Red Sox front office continue to debate the merits of their internal options, and they remain hopeful that an external alternative can be found, ideally on the trade market.

• Masataka Yoshida can supposedly hit high-velocity pitches.

Red Sox hitting coach Pete Fatse: I think the most impactful thing is the ability to hit velocity.

Boras: And what we really watched very clearly when we saw him face the relievers in Japan, they’re throwing 95, 96 [mph]. And there are only a few arms that can do it [in Japan], and he handled those pitchers with great acumen. [He] showed power and had the same level of strike-zone control with velocity that he had for the other pitchers, so those are things that are very impressive about him.

Here are some first-season swinging-strike rates for pitches over 95 mph for players coming over from Japan.

Name (Season): SwStr% (>= 95 mph)
Seiya Suzuki (2022): 5.9%
Shogo Akiyama (2020): 5.0%
Yoshi Tsutsugo (2020): 12.6%
League Average (2022): 10.0%

I’m not sure if the three guys were targeted because they could hit velocity or if it’s not an issue to worry about.

Twins

Joey Gallo is reworking his swing.

“Mentally was honestly tough for me last year,” Gallo said. “It’s good to have an offseason to reset. Obviously, working on different things with my swing mechanically that I can clean up. I kind of got into some bad habits last year that are tough to get out of midseason. Getting that reset, getting back on track, being with a new organization with obviously a great hitting coach that I’ll probably begin to work with soon out in Cali — the main thing is cleaning up my mechanics a little bit at the plate and having that fresh start.”

White Sox

Andrew Benintendi is trying to not hit as many groundballs.

Benintendi felt he was rolling over too many balls. And while there probably isn’t a hitting coach in the past 50 years who would say rolling over the ball is a good thing, it was particularly antithetical to what he and Coleman wanted to see.

“You’re trying to get the ball in the air,” Coleman said. “You hit a ball on the ground, you’re out. I don’t care who you are. Infielders are just so good right now, just groundballs are outs.”

Coleman said. “But you’re trying to keep that left hand underneath throughout the swing. Like, you see Mookie so it’s almost swing like you’re swinging a golf club when he’s hitting. That hand really never breaks over to create a rollover.”

In addition to focusing on keeping his left hand underneath throughout his swing, Coleman feels the two-handed finish gave Benintendi stronger control of the path of his barrel throughout his entire stroke, rather than losing his plane right upon contact when his left hand was coming off.

• Even with the addition of Benintendi, Oscar Colas will remain in the outfield mix.

An outfield of Benintendi, Luis Robert and Oscar Colas, whenever it materializes in 2023, features two Gold Glove winners and a center fielder playing right in Colas.

This move kills whatever value Gavin Sheets had.

National League

Dodgers

Noah Syndergaard is trying everything to get back to his old self.

The right-hander pitched well in 2022, throwing 134 2/3 innings for the Angels and Phillies at essentially a league-average level. But he did so with constant uncertainty about his mechanics. He lacked the proper conviction behind each pitch as he tried to perfect his motion and add extra movement to his pitches.


That work has continued into this winter, as Syndergaard has traversed between private facilities in search of a remedy. He went to a noted pitching factory at Tread Athletics in Charlotte, N.C., to start his throwing program. Then he went to another lauded pitching outpost, Driveline Baseball’s Arizona location. Shortly after the holidays, he’ll head to Dodger Stadium to work under the staff’s watchful eye, hopeful to get back to what he once was.

“The pitches I threw last year, I just want to throw those away,” Syndergaard said. “I fully intend on being a different pitcher next year. I see no excuse as to why I can’t get back to 100 mph and even farther than that. Just doesn’t make any sense.”

So Syndergaard has already been to two facilities this off-season and now heading to the one the Dodgers run. Dude, pick a lane. Also, gaining over 3 mph (max FBv was 96.8 mph) is pretty much a pipe dream for the 30-year-old.

That said, I bet the Dodgers work on a new pitch mix focusing on the change (14% SwStr%) and curve (16% SwStr%).

Padres

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 might see his playing time drop with the signing of Matt Carpenter.

The left-handed hitter is expected to lengthen what had been a top-heavy lineup, likely spending most of his time at designated hitter. Carpenter also can fill in at either corner-infield position and either corner-outfield spot. His presence should allow the Padres to sit expected starting second baseman Ha-Seong Kim against certain right-handers (with Carpenter playing first base and Jake Cronenworth sliding over to second).

I could see the platoon with Kim having a career .653 OPS vs RHP and .735 OPS vs LHP.

Seth Lugo is the team’s fifth starter with Nick Martinez being the fourth guy.

Some team officials envision Seth Lugo traveling a similar path. The veteran right-hander on Monday agreed to a two-year, $15 million deal that includes an opt-out and incentives for starting and relieving. For now, he is penciled as the Padres’ No. 5 starter behind Martinez at No. 4.

The prospects of Lugo, as a starter, are disappointing. The last time he started was for seven 2020 starts. As a starter that year, he posted a 3.12 xFIP with a 93.3 mph fastball and averaged just under 4 IP per start. As a reliever, he posted a 2.76 xFIP with a 94.9 mph fastball. He was effective but the velocity drop is a little worrying.

One point everyone seems to be making about Lugo is that he throws five different pitches. The deal is that his curve (13% SwStr%, 51% GB%) and four-seamer (9% SwStr%, 49% GB% ) are maybe league average. The rest are garbage. He’s going to have issues navigating a lineup a second or third time.

With league-average control and his limited repertoire, I expect he’ll struggle to stay in the starting role.

Phillies

Darick Hall and/or Jake Cave could be the first-half DH against righties.

The Phillies did win a waiver claim on Cave, who has a similar profile to Hall’s. He is 30 and has more defensive versatility in the outfield. He is much, much better against righties than lefties — although most of his production in the majors came during 2018 and 2019 with very little since.

Hall is great insurance, and that is how the Phillies view him.

Both are perfect strong-side platoon candidates.

Name: Career OPS vs LHP, vs RHP
Hall: .167, .865
Cave: .592, .744

• Even though Matt Strahm wants to be a starting pitcher, he’ll start the season in the bullpen.

No, Strahm will be a reliever. He has started before and still throws four or five pitches as a reliever, which is unusual, but he thinks it is an advantage. (It would not be surprising to see the Phillies refine his arsenal in 2023.) Strahm said he keeps all of his pitches because, yes, one day he would like to start again. Maybe the Phillies, if they have a need, go to Strahm occasionally as an opener.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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walt526member
1 year ago

“I could see the platoon with Kim having a career .653 OPS vs LHP and .735 OPS vs RHP.”

FYI, these should be flipped: .735 OPS vs LHP, .653 OPS vs RHP