Author Archive

Lineup Analysis (6/30/23)

American League

Angels

• What a mess with the trades for Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar. Hunter Renfroe got pushed off first base and back to the outfield where he shares two spots with Mickey Moniak and Taylor Ward.

David Fletcher has started in five of the last six games at shortstop. Since being recalled he’s posting a .900 OPS. Read the rest of this entry »


PCL to MLB Hitter Adjustment

Recently, I had to write up Luis Matos and saw he raked in AAA to the tune of .398/.435/.685 in 116 PA. Luis played for the Sacramento River Cats. in the Pacific Coast League (PCL). So far in the PCL, the league-wide OPS of .839 OPS while it is only a .728 OPS in the majors. The league-wide difference can’t be used because not all the hitters get promoted and many who do are only up for a short time. I just ran a quick test to have an idea of how much of a production drop should be expected from AAA to the majors. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 14)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (6/27/23)

• Most AAA pitchers are struggling with the automatic called balls and strikes.

To be fair to Peterson and other pitchers at Triple A, the league ERA is up over five this season as pitchers have struggled to adapt to the automated ball/strike system.

In the Pacific Coast League, the league-wide walk rate has jumped from 4.2 BB/9 to 5.1 BB/9 with little change in strikeouts (9.3 K/9 to 9.1 K/9). In the International League, the walk has gone from 4.0 BB/9 to 4.8 BB/9 with the strikeout rate staying steady at 9.2 K/9. I don’t have the means or the time to figure out if the strike zone is to blame but don’t be surprised if a pitcher’s walk rate drops once they get to the majors.

Of the guys with 20 innings in both AAA and the majors, their walk rate has dropped by an average of 0.58 BB/9 (median = 0.71) going to the majors. Looking at the same group of pitchers from last season, pitchers, on average, saw their walk rate increase by 0.10 (median 0.14). I’m not sure how projections are handling the change. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are tonight’s FAAB bids for the two 15-team mixed leagues.

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: There was 5% in the AL-only league for Moustakes and Escobar

7:33
Giggles: Please rank for ROS stashes Jose Quintana, Grayson Rodriguez, Skubal… thanks.

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Skubal ……… Quintana, Rodriguez

Read the rest of this entry »


Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 14)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (6/24/23)

American League

Angels

Hunter Renfroe (.736 OPS) no longer has a permanent spot in the lineup with just three starts in the last six games. He’s now in a rotation with Mickey Moniak (.941 OPS) and Taylor Ward (.693 OPS).

Andrew Velazquez (.250/.429/.313, 0 HR, 4 SB) has started six straight games at shortstop. Read the rest of this entry »


Savant Hitter Aging Curves & Improvement Chances

This article is a data dump of some Baseball Savant-based aging curves, several “normal” curves along with some player improvement chances. There is no actual player analysis but instead, this article is to be a reference for future player breakdowns.

The main reason behind this study is to have an answer to: “If only player X increased their Launch Angle/Hard Hit Rate/Barrel Percentage, they could take a step forward. Here is an attempt to put some numbers to those “ifs”. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 13)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (6/20/23)

General Notes

• I keep reading about hitters who are reworking their swing with several examples in this article. What I rarely see mentioned is this example of Nolan Arenado constantly working on it. Maybe the difference between great major league hitters and the rest is that the great bats might always be adjusting.

What those same awestruck fans didn’t see before the pivotal moments of the Cardinals’ most thrilling victory of the season was that, while numerous teammates ran for the postgame buses to get a start on a couple of weekend nights in New York City, Arenado remained behind Friday and Saturday to pound balls in the batting cage.

“They care,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said of the postgame work between two players with a combined 14 All-Star Game appearances. “The game ended, everybody showered, and you’ve got last year’s MVP [finalists] in the cage, still taking swings and trying to figure some things [out] and trying to make sure [they] can help us the next day.

Rarely is there a time when Arenado is not thinking about hitting. His work is intentional, not accidental. He’s blessed (with talent), but equally obsessed. He’s a great hitter and an even better worker.

Teammates marvel at his consuming obsession with his swing

Read the rest of this entry »