Stock Watch: 8/10

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Everth Cabrera, Padres

A Rule V pick-up from the Colorado Rockies organization, Cabrera is a switch-hitting water bug with speed to spare. The Nicaragua native seemed like a long shot to stick on the big league roster for the duration of the 2009 season, as he hadn’t played above the High Class A level.

While Cabrera missed a chunk of time with a left hand injury, he has surpassed expectations in San Diego. In 213 plate appearances, the 22 year-old shortstop is batting .263/.341/.414, with a .344 wOBA. He’s doing a nice job of working the count (9.7 BB%, with a 53.5 First-Pitch Strike% that’s about 5 points below the MLB average) while swiping 15 bags in 17 attempts (an 88% success rate). It’s probably best not to get too carried away with a few hundred PA’s of performance, but the Padres may have pilfered an everyday shortstop from a division rival.

Derek Holland, Rangers

In 91 innings, Holland has a 5.04 ERA. That sounds a trifle disappointing from such a heralded prospect, but his peripherals are actually quite strong. The 22 year-old lefty, ranked by Baseball America as the 2nd-best talent in a fertile Texas farm system, has punched out 7.52 batters per nine innings, while keeping the walks in check as well (2.97 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR per fly ball rate) is 4.25.

Holland’s recent success (he dominated Seattle on July 30th and the Angels last night, with a middling start against Oakland in between) has many taking notice. His K/BB ratio is gradually climbing, but the big difference lies in his BABIP figures:

May: 2.33 K/BB, .369 BABIP
June: 2.63 K/BB, .360 BABIP
July: 2.78 K/BB, .280 BABIP
August: 2.4 K/BB, .182 BABIP

Justin Masterson, Indians

With Carl Pavano headed to the Twin Cities in an August waiver deal, Masterson steps into the Tribe’s starting rotation. The 24 year-old sinker/slider pitcher, acquired in the Victor Martinez swap with Boston, will get a chance to prove he’s capable of handling a lineup multiple times while keeping those pesky left-handers at bay. On the positive side, Masterson has improved his strikeout and walk rates this season (8.54 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 in 79 IP), stifling right-handed hitters as usual (career .210/.287/.307 line vs. RHB in the majors).

Still, the same questions about Masterson’s viability as a starter apply. With a low-three quarters arm angle and no real changeup to speak of, the San Diego State product is susceptible to southpaw batters (.273/.370/.446 in the big leagues).

Billy Butler, Royals

Butler was a hitting prodigy in the minors, authoring a .336/.416/.561 line, walking 11.5 percent of the time and whiffing just 15 percent. The righty batter kept his head above water in major league stints in 2007 (.341 wOBA) and 2008 (.318), but the 22 year-old is adding some pop to his game in 2009. Butler isn’t a prolific power hitter at this point or anything, but his ISO is up to a healthy .183 for the season and he has deposited 13 souvenirs in the bleachers. On a team that features many “swing first, ask questions later” hitters, Butler is a beacon of hope. And the best is yet to come.

David Price, Rays

The much-discussed Vanderbilt product had a bumpy month of July (20 K’s and 18 BB in 27.2 IP), but Price began to turn it around in July (20/10 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and began the month of August with a bang (6 IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB vs. Boston on the 5th). The 6-6 lefty did a much better job of getting ahead of hitters in July, with a 64.2 First-Pitch Strike% that trumped June’s paltry 48.8% rate.

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Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

Lowrie’s 2009 season has been a complete bust. The switch-hitting Stanford product held his own as a rookie last season (.326 wOBA in 306 PA), and he entered the spring looking to usurp Julio Lugo as Boston’s everyday shortstop. Lugo is gone, but Lowrie won’t be the one getting a permanent lineup spot. The 25 year-old has dealt with a lingering left wrist injury (which required surgery) and a balky knee, and he heads back to the DL with numbness thought to be related to the aforementioned surgery.

Delmon Young, Twins

The 1st overall selection by the Rays in the 2003 amateur draft, Young tore through the minors. As a player several years younger than the competition, he compiled a .318/.363/.518 line and made his major league debut at the age of 20. In 131 PA with Tampa in 2006, Delmon posted a .343 wOBA. Sure, the line was batting average-driven and he swung at everything (50.3 O-Swing%), but it’s highly impressive for someone that young to hold their own against major league competition.

Flash forward to 2009. Young is nearing 24 year of age, and he has made absolutely no progress toward becoming a major league-caliber hitter, much less a star. After compiling wOBA’s of .315 in 2007 and .324 in 2008, Young is down to a putrid .274 this season. His approach, if you want to call it that, consists of hacking at anything within a 10-mile radius of the Metrodome.

In 245 PA, Young has a 2.9% walk rate, with a strikeout rate (29.2%) is over 10 percent above his career average. While his outside swing percentage is trending down, we’re speaking in awfully relative terms. Young’s 36.7 O-Swing% in 2009 is still nearly 12 percentage points above the MLB average, and is one of the five highest rates among all hitters. Delmon is a near lock to put himself in the pitcher’s clutches by falling behind in the count: his 68.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 10 percentage points above the big league norm and is the 2nd-highest clip among batters with 200+ PA. With the exception of curveballs, he’s not hitting anything well.

That “he’s young” tag is becoming quite tiresome. It’s certainly possible that he improves, but there’s just no evidence that Delmon Young at 23-24 is any more polished than the 20 year-old hacker we saw back in ’06.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Looking for a fresh start with Seattle after an acrimonious end to his Pirates days, Snell tossed a pretty good ballgame against the Rangers on August 2nd (6 IP, 2 R, 4 K). His second start, however, was disastrous. Lasting just 1.1 frames, Snell walked 6 hitters while coughing up 3 runs vs. the Rays.

The 27 year-old right-hander is perplexing as they come. He was an above-average major league starter as recently as 2007, when he posted a 4.01 FIP (7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9) in 208 innings. The wheels have completely fallen off since then, though. Snell walked 4.87 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has issued 5.42 BB/9 in ’09.

His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has fallen precipitously, to 46.4% this year (3 percentage points below the MLB average). Snell’s Outside Swing%, 28.2 in 2007, is just 22 percent in 2009. He posted a 63.7 first-pitch strike% in ’07, but that figure is a lousy 53% in ’09. Hitters have wised up and just aren’t offering at Snell’s stuff. His 41.8 Swing% is 5th-lowest among starters tossing 80+ innings.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Inked to a 2-year, $18.5 million deal this past off-season, Renteria has done his best Yuniesky Betancourt impression in 2009. The 34 year-old owns a sordid .275 wOBA, second-worst among SS taking at least 300 trips to the plate (Yuniesky is first). Renteria’s pop had been on the wane for several years, but it has all but disappeared this year as he deals with an ailing elbow:

2006: .144 ISO
2007: .138 ISO
2008: .111 ISO
2009: .062 ISO

The former Marlin, Cardinal, Red Sock, Brave and Tiger just hasn’t been able to catch up with fastballs this season. His run value per 100 pitches against the heater is -1.17, one of the 10 worst rates among major league hitters. Combine the slack bat with ordinary D, and you have a sub-replacement player (-0.1 WAR).

Zach Duke, Pirates

This has little to do with Duke himself. Rather, it involves the cast of characters surrounding the southpaw when he takes the mound. As a hurler who uses an 88 MPH fastball, 81 MPH slider, 74 MPH curveball and an 81 MPH change to paint the corners, Duke is highly reliant upon the quality of his defense. His career strikeout rate per nine frames is 4.57, and sits at 4.42 in 2009.

In past years, the pitch-to-contact starter was a very poor fit on a Pirates team that featured plodding fielders. Duke suffered from high BABIP figures from 2006 to 2008 (.327, .360 and .327, respectively). In ’09, the Bucs featured a strong group of defenders to start the season, and Duke’s BABIP has dipped to .279 for the year.

Unfortunately for Zach, most of the fellows are gone now. Andrew McCutchen’s scouting reports, minor league data and early big league work (+3.4 UZR/150) peg him as a definite upgrade over Nate McClouth in CF. But the other changes aren’t so promising:

2B: Freddy Sanchez to Delwyn Young
SS: Jack Wilson to Ronny Cedeno
LF: Nyjer Morgan to Lastings Milledge

Cedeno does not appear to be a big problem at short. However, second base and LF figure to take significant hits. Sanchez (career +4.4 UZR at 2B) has been replaced by Young, a corner outfielder who has not played the keystone spot since he was a Dodgers prospect back in 2005. Morgan’s superb range gives way to Milledge, who was a very poor defender in CF. Perhaps he’s an average corner outfielder, but that’s still a big hit relative to the man he took over for.

Duke might end up giving up more bloops during the next few months because of laggardly leather behind him. He wouldn’t be a bad sell-high candidate.