Geovany’s Grand Debut

For years, the path to Wrigley Field has been turbulent for Chicago Cubs position prospects. From Corey Patterson to Luis Montanez, Brian Dopirak to Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie (though Pie might yet make good in Baltimore) to Tyler Colvin, the folks from the North Side have had many a batter end up falling by the wayside. In fact, the last position player signed by the Cubbies to develop into an all-star prior to last season was Joe Girardi, all the way back in 1986.

The man that ended that ignominious streak in 2008, ironically, wasn’t viewed as that great of a prospect for the majority of his minor league career. Geovany Soto was the National League’s starting catcher in last year’s midsummer classic and took home NL Rookie of the Year hardware. In the minors, however, he often toiled behind more celebrated farm products, posting modest numbers that had most envisioning him as a future second-stringer rather than a cornerstone backstop.

Selected out of Puerto Rico in the 11th round of the 2001 amateur draft, Soto spent his first two pro years in rookie ball oscillating between catcher and first base. The 318th overall pick showed some ability to work the count and a modicum of pop, batting .260/.327/.387 in ’01 and .273/.328/.416 in 2002.

Bumped up to High-A Dayton of the Florida State league for the 2003 season, Geovany posted a tepid .242/.314/.316 line. He worked the count decently (10.4 BB%), but no one’s going to get excited over a .630 OPS. Heading into the 2004 season, Soto was in the prospect witness protection program: part-time catchers/possible first basemen who slug just north of .300 aren’t going to attract much adoration.

Soto showed signs of life at the plate at AA West Tennessee in ’04. He hit .271/.349/.401 for the Diamond Jaxx, displaying a good eye (12 BB%) and a little more thump (.130 ISO). The 6-1, 230 pounder got himself into better shape (shedding close to 30 pounds) and donned the tools of ignorance on a regular basis, catching 102 games. Feeling that the then-21 year-old Diamond Jaxx catcher was diamond in the rough, Baseball America jumped Soto up to the 14th spot on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects list following the season.

Feeling that he had made significant strides, the Cubs decided to promote Soto to AAA Iowa for the 2005 season. His performance didn’t collapse, but his offensive output was a bit disappointing: .253/.357/.342 in 292 AB. The 22 year-old did get one AB with the Cubs, and ranked 16th on BA’s Chicago top 30 prospects list.

Back with the I-Cubs in 2006, Soto had a similar level of output, save for an additional 20 points of batting average, a few less walks and a tiny bit of extra power (.272/.353/.386 in 342 AB). Soto soaked up a few more AB’s for the Cubs in September. BA (ranking Soto 17th) noted his improving defensive skills, but also felt that he “profile[d] more as a backup than a regular”, and that Soto was “destined for a third straight season in Iowa.”

The Puerto Rican backstop did indeed return to the corn fields in 2007, but he decided to transform into the Pacific Coast League’s version of Josh Gibson. Soto blasted the PCL to the tune of .349/.422/.640 in 444 PA. Sure, his batting average was sky-high (the result of a .411 BABIP), but Geovany finally showed some juice (.291 ISO) to go along with his discerning eye (12.2 BB%). That prolific performance caught the attention of the Cubs, who gave him a healthy dose of playing time in September. Soto soared up the prospect charts, ranking second in the Cubs’ system and 48th overall. BA pined that he “raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star.”

That comment seemed prescient in 2008, as Soto made good on that all-star promise in his first full season in the majors. In 563 PA, he posted a .371 wOBA, ranking behind only Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. Batting .285/.364/.504, Soto compiled a .219 ISO ranked just three points behind McCann. In addition to hitting the ball with authority, Soto continued to be selective at the dish. He drew a free pass 11.2% of the time and swung at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is about 25%). If there’s one area where Geovany might regress, it’s in the batting average department. He did strike out 24.5% of the time, so maintaining a .280-.290 average isn’t all that likely. Given those stellar secondary skills, however, that hardly matters.

While more highly-touted bonus babies in Chicago’s system have often crashed and burned, Geovany Soto kept on chugging and has emerged as one of the most valuable assets in Major League Baseball. Catchers with his combination of plate judgment and extra-base sock are exceedingly rare, and the 26 year-old figures to turn in another all-star caliber season in 2009. Soto is no one-year wonder: he’s here to stay among the Mauers and McCann’s of the game.