Archive for Uncategorized

Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Most Cut Players

I thought about making this a special Joey Gallo edition of Cold Right now. Gallo has been cut in 11.75% of leagues over the last week and in nearly a quarter of leagues over the last month. And while there are some other players who have been cut more, none offer the potential of league-altering production the way Gallo does. But rather than focus on just Gallo, I want to take a quick look at some other names before figuring out what to make of Gallo.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Pitcher Preview Strategy Episode

The Pitcher Preview Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Pitcher Preview
    • Tools to look at matchups
    • Analytics for deep dives
      • Walk and Stirkeout rates
      • ERA estimators
      • Luck checks
      • Statcast measures
      • Game logs
      • Upcoming matchups

Pitcher Preview

Waiver Wire

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

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00:45:32

DFS Pitching Preview: May 9, 2022

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

There are a few tiers with which we’re gonna deal. More in order of salary than skill because we’re not talking about your pitcher picks. We’re talking about how you’re going to construct your lineups and the salaries are the shapes of our puzzle pieces.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Closer Rebuttal for 2022 Drafts

The Closer Rebuttal for 2022 Drafts Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Closer rebuttal for 2022 drafts
    • Historical earnings for top closers
    • Early closers may bake in a certain value loss
    • Low historical hit rates for closers
    • Drafting top closers means passing up on valuable players
    • Drafting a starting pitcher instead of a top closer – one less starter to find on the waiver wire
    • Too much uncertainty in bullpens
    • Too much draft capital invested in a one-category player
    • Use a combination of absolute value and relative value

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00:09:04

Beat the Shift Podcast – Understanding Statistics Episode w/ Mike Podhorzer

The Understanding Statistics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Podhorzer

Bar Mitzvah Talk

  • Coke & Pepsi

Projections

  • Pod Projections
  • Manual vs. automated projections
  • Where do automated projections fail / blind spots?

In-Season

  • At what point in the season should you rely on in-season statistics vs. pre-season projections?

Understandings Statistics Section

  • Hitting Statistics
    • BA
    • OBP
    • SLG
    • OPS
    • BB%
    • K%
    • HR/FB%
    • Barrel%
  • How can you tell if a YOY increase in a statistic is real skill, or if it was a fluke?
  • BABIP
  • Using Statcast to identify pockets of value / undervalued players
  • What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for hitters?
  • Pitching Statistics
    • ERA
    • WHIP
    • Swing Strike %
  • How to adjust for a potential universal DH in 2022?
  • Strand Rate (LOB%)
  • ERA Estimators
    • FIP vs. xFIP vs. SIERA
      • Descriptive vs. Predictive
  • What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for pitchers?
    • K% is superior to K/9
    • K-BB% or K% – Which is more valuable to track in-season?
  • What statistics should one track to tout relievers for saves in 2022?
  • Scouting for saves in 2022
  • Other important statistics to track
    • Plate discipline metrics
      • O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, etc.

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01:27:29

Waiver Wire Report (Week 19)

It’s below-average starting pitcher week. Or the bar has been lower on what is an average pitcher. It was tough ranking so many flawed characters, but there aren’t many decent options.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: July 18, 2021

NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

The 2021 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
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Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 14)

I’m being a little selfish this week. A few of the players who were dropped in six leagues interested me, so I included them. I seperated out the hitters in Colorado. I think they were not good enough hitters to roster, but I don’t know for sure. I’ll study the Colorado threshold later this week.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »


Getting Rolled Over by Low K% Pitchers

We’ve all heard about Sisyphus, the wicked trickster, and tyrant who first angered the Greek gods with his general bad deeds but then really got on their naughty list by cheating his punishment of death, not once but twice. These misdeeds earned the former king not just a place in the bad part of town underground but an extra special sort of eternal torture forever tasked to roll a boulder up a mountain. But upon nearing the summit, the boulder would roll right back down from whence it came and Sisyphus would have to start all over.

This seems like a pretty terrible way to spend eternity but that’s what always comes to mind whenever I think about the fantasy power of pitchers with low strikeout rates. Sure, you can make your way up the value mountain while pushing a low K%, but the lower that rate, the steeper things get.

Returning good fantasy value with a low strikeout rate isn’t impossible but it’s certainly a hard knock life. Maybe “hard” is the wrong word. How about less predictable? When you roll with a low-K% pitcher, you simply need a lot of other things to go right in categories that are less in a pitcher’s control. Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Most Cut Players

I regularly check in on the players who are being auctioned in a large number of leagues, but of course, there is the other end of the spectrum – players who are being let go in high numbers. Today, we’ll look at some players being dropped widely and determine whether there is any reason to try to buy in while others are jumping ship.

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