Beat the Shift Podcast – Understanding Statistics Episode w/ Mike Podhorzer

The Understanding Statistics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Podhorzer

Bar Mitzvah Talk

  • Coke & Pepsi


  • Pod Projections
  • Manual vs. automated projections
  • Where do automated projections fail / blind spots?


  • At what point in the season should you rely on in-season statistics vs. pre-season projections?

Understandings Statistics Section

  • Hitting Statistics
    • BA
    • OBP
    • SLG
    • OPS
    • BB%
    • K%
    • HR/FB%
    • Barrel%
  • How can you tell if a YOY increase in a statistic is real skill, or if it was a fluke?
  • Using Statcast to identify pockets of value / undervalued players
  • What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for hitters?
  • Pitching Statistics
    • ERA
    • WHIP
    • Swing Strike %
  • How to adjust for a potential universal DH in 2022?
  • Strand Rate (LOB%)
  • ERA Estimators
    • FIP vs. xFIP vs. SIERA
      • Descriptive vs. Predictive
  • What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for pitchers?
    • K% is superior to K/9
    • K-BB% or K% – Which is more valuable to track in-season?
  • What statistics should one track to tout relievers for saves in 2022?
  • Scouting for saves in 2022
  • Other important statistics to track
    • Plate discipline metrics
      • O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, etc.

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.


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Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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2 years ago

Thoughts on Cutters for pitchers? Seems like big cutter guys lose on SIERA but still produce.