Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 14)

I’m being a little selfish this week. A few of the players who were dropped in six leagues interested me, so I included them. I seperated out the hitters in Colorado. I think they were not good enough hitters to roster, but I don’t know for sure. I’ll study the Colorado threshold later this week.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Batters

Taylor Trammell (10): Since his promotion on June 1st, he’s played in 23 games while hitting .171/.266/.400 with 4 HR and a 40% K%. Barely a power-only play.

Freddy Galvis (9): He’s been OK (.249/.306/.414 with 9 HR), but news came out that he’s out a month or two. Reasonable drop.

Mauricio Dubón (9): Wasn’t hitting (.234/.272/.373) and got demoted.

Josh Naylor (9): Out for a while after a gruesome ankle injury.

Jake Bauers (9): He’s been acceptable with Seattle (.263/.314/.325) while starting 21 of 22 games. If the Seattle production continues, he’s still just a replacement level bat.

Lars Nootbaar (9): The man with an 80-grade name was demoted back to AAA.

Zach McKinstry (9): While being an acceptable bat (.252/.305/.437, 5 HR, 1 SB), he’s only started in five of the last 10 games.

Yandy Díaz (9): Replacement-level corner infielder (.247 AVG with 4 HR and 0 SB).

Bradley Zimmer (8): He hasn’t been hitting (.212/.362/.247), so he now finds himself on the strong side of a centerfield platoon with Oscar Mercado (.211/.318/.316).

Ji-Man Choi (8): He’s started in nine of the last 10 games, four of them being against lefty starters. He provides just a few Roto stats (3 HR, 0 SB), but a .807 OPS will keep him in the lineup. He’s not sexy but useful in deeper leagues.

Chad Pinder (7): He has started in seven of the last 10 games while hitting .211/.261/.352 on the season with a .546 OPS in June.

Corey Dickerson (7): With the trade to Toronto, he becomes a bench bat.

Kole Calhoun (7): He was on his way back from the IL and then reinjured his hamstring. He’s worth rostering once healthy.

Tony Kemp (6): He has started in eight of the last 10 games (three starts versus a lefty). And when facing a righty, he leads off. He’s been OK as a hitter (.261 AVG, 4 HR, 4 SB). A nice bench bat to plugin for injured players.

Taylor Ward (6): He’s not been bad, but not exactly good (7 HR, 1 SB, .242 AVG). A stable replacement level bat.

Hitters at Colorado: I think people were reaching to take advantage of the thin air. I’m going to writing more on the subject later this week.

Joshua Fuentes (9): I know Fuentes has seven home games, but he’s just not playing or hitting enough. He only got 13 PA, 3 H, 2 RBI, and 1 Run for the week. If paying up for and starting hitters at Colorado, make sure they are at least league average.

Phillip Evans (9), Kevin Newman (9), Dom Nuñez (9): See Joshua Fuentes

Yonathan Daza (9): While he struggled during the homestand (.143/.182/.286), he’s been a decent source of batting average (.336) when at home.

Starters

Tony Santillan (10): While he was demoted back to AAA, there were some good signs (10.8 K/9, 3.78 ERA) but mostly bad (5.4 BB/9, 1.68 WHIP, 5.33 xFIP). When he gets called up again, he needs to keep the walks under control.

J.A. Happ (9): His strikeout (7.1 K/9) and walk (2.9 BB/9) rates are acceptable, but the 34% GB% and continuing velocity decline have him at 1.9 HR/9 (projections at 1.5 HR/9). Barely a streaming option.

Cal Quantrill (9): In 27 IP as a starter, he has a 6.67 ERA, 4.8 xFIP, 6.7 K/9, and 1.56 WHIP. He should be better, but his pitch mix is a mess. His sinker (8% SwStr%, 49% GB%) and slider (13% SwStr) are just league average with his change (used to be average), curve, and four-seamer below average. He’s just not got the pitches to navigate a lineup multiple times (1st TTO: 3.77 ERA, 2nd: 8.44, 3rd: 18.00). Right now, his best role is as a multi-inning reliever.

Cody Poteet (8): On the IL (knee) and was struggling with his command (4.7 BB/9, 4.99 ERA). Not worth holding.

Garrett Richards (7): He’s had all kinds of issues since he’s lost the sticky stuff (4.4 K/9, 2.08 WHIP, 8.27 ERA) in mid-June. He might right the ship, but it might take a month or two.

Eric Lauer (7): A nice two-start week (2 W, 0.73 ERA, 10 K, 0.97 WHIP) versus Colorado and Pittsburgh. He’s a starter who should be streamed in about half his starts.

Sammy Long (7): He’s been hurt and eventually placed on the IL (back). While his 5.63 ERA is not desirable, his 17.8% K%-BB% would rank 30th among qualified starters. When he returns from the IL, he should be rostered.

Bailey Ober (6): The single focus on ERA for evaluating pitchers leads to drops like Ober. He had an 18.9% K%-BB% at the time of this drop. That rate would be tied with Walker Buehler and between Pablo Lopez and Charlie Morton. Ober’s 5.84 ERA was unsightly, but regression should be expected.

For a quick study, I took all the pitchers who had four starts in a month with an ERA over 5.00 and a K%-BB% between 18% and 20% since 2018. The median drop in ERA from the high ERA month to the next was 2.76 . For Bailey, this would mean an ERA just over 3.00. I believe all pitcher evaluations should be done without ever looking at the ERA. A pitcher has so little control over it and it says almost nothing about the pitcher’s talent.

Brady Singer (6): His 4.0 BB/9 puts a pitcher into my do not roster range. The extra walks have his WHIP (1.52) and ERA (4.74) at unplayable levels.

Relievers

Brad Brach (10): He’s been good (2.25 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.10 WHIP) but isn’t getting used as a closer after getting a Save the previous week.

Michael Fulmer (9): On the IL with an unknown return time.

Lucas Sims (9): On the IL until late July.

Seth Lugo (7): Backup closer with decent stats (2.40 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 1.13 WHIP). These guys are a dime a dozen.

Gregory Soto (6): He’s almost the ideal part-time closer who gets some Saves (6), Wins (4), and strikeouts (10.7 K/9) to go with a 2.94 ERA. His issue is his 5.4 BB/9 leading to 1.34 WHIP. He’s just a closer who will continue to cycle on and off teams.