Waiver Wire Report (Week 19)

It’s below-average starting pitcher week. Or the bar has been lower on what is an average pitcher. It was tough ranking so many flawed characters, but there aren’t many decent options.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jo Adell: After struggling in the majors last season (.161/.212/.266, 42% K%), the Angels wanted to make sure he was not going to be overmatched once promoted. In 17 PA, his strikeout rate is down to 29% and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 20% to 11%. He’s a must-roster in all leagues to see if he can live up to his prospect potential.

Amed Rosario: He hitting .269/.314/.383 with 6 HR and 12 SB. And qualified at two positions. His roster rate should be double its current level.

Abraham Toro: He’s started nine straight games at second base and batted in the fifth lineup spot since joining the Mariners. While he’s been a great source of power (9 HR in 163 PA) and not a drag in the other categories (.267/.337/.479, 4 SB).

Josh Harrison: Until 48 hours ago, I thought he might be the ultimate utility player for the A’s but it’s now a full-time role with Ramon Laureano getting suspended. He’s provided a little of everything (.286/.357/.420, 6 HR, 6 SB) this season while being qualified at several positions.

Kyle Farmer: I’ve been waiting for the shoe to drop when he comes off his MVP level production … but not yet. Since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .421/.470/.671 (.475 BABIP). While he’s cooled off some over the last week (.350 AVG, .100 ISO), I tried again to find a reason for a possible breakout. The obvious reason is that he’s hitting more line drives (22% to 36%). One explanation for the line drives is that he’s seeing more sinkers than four-seamers since the sticky stuff ban got enforced. Over his career, he has a .952 vsOPS against sinkers and a .712 vsOPS against four-seamers. I feel like I’m grasping at straws to find a talent change and not go the easy route and think it’s luck that’ll regress. It’s a tough nut to crack.

Rowdy Tellez: He’s hitting .351/.441/.667 with his walks up (6% to 13%) and strikeouts down (22% to 15%) since joining the Brewers. He has been sitting some against lefties since Eduardo Escobar has joined the team.

Lorenzo Cain: He’s started nine of 10 since coming off the IL. While he’s not hit for power (.029 ISO) since returning, he’s hit .324/.361/.353 with 2 SB. He is another player who might finally be healthy and ready to contribute.

Edward Olivares: Another all-around option (.265 AVG, 4 HR, 2 SB) who might be getting a run with the MLB team. Maybe.

Carter Kieboom: After struggling in the majors in 2019 (.491 OPS) and 2020 (.556), he’s been respectable (.300/.396/.475) in 48 PA this season. The biggest gain is his 21% K% down from 27% in 2020 and 37% in 2019. I’m a little worried that he’ll not keep the gains since pitchers only threw him fastballs 45% in the previous season but it’s up to 53% this year. He’s always struggled against non-fastball and those struggles continue into this season with a 21% SwStr% versus sliders and a 17% SwStr% versus changeups.

Sam Hilliard: He’s been great since his last call-up hitting .288/.373/.654 with 5 HR and 1 SB in 59 PA. He might be getting to the point where he can be started on the road. Also, the playing time has been coming since he’s started in six straight games.

Rafael Ortega: The Cubs’s 30-year-old leadoff hitter has been great (.320/.374/.531, 6 HR, 5 SB). It’ll be interesting to see how far his .402 BABIP (career .297 BABIP) regresses.

Patrick Wisdom: Available source of power (16 HR in 200 PA), but don’t expect the .269 AVG to stay up with a 38% K%.

Myles Straw: With the Guardians, he’s starting against all lefties and some righties. Also, he’s continuing to run with 2 SB with his new team.

Brian Anderson: He’s a fine corner infielder who provides production (.253/.324/.389, 5 HR, 4 HR) across the board. He’s started in 10 of 12 games since coming off the IL.

Yadiel Hernandez: The 33-year-old has been an unexpected anchor to the gutted lineup. While he struggled (.637 OPS) in 28 MLB PA’s last season, he has a respectable .818 OPS with 4 HR and 2 SB. With the lineup security, he is a decent 5th OF option in deeper leagues.

Luis García: He’s started nine of the last 10 games while hitting .192/.250/.423. While he’s hitting a ton of groundballs (74%, 51% in AAA) he’s hitting for power (.231 ISO, 3 HR) and is just being dragged down by a .179 BABIP. Nice up-side play and a cheap add in keeper and dynasty formats.

Miguel Cabrera: He’s been on fire since the All-Star break (.288/.346/.515 with 4 HR). Most of the second-half gains have been with his plate discipline (7% BB% to 10% BB%, 27% K% to 14%). He might finally be healthy and fantasy manages can ride out the hot streak until he gets hurt again.

Aledmys Díaz: I just broke down him in my lineups article with a special emphasis on his playing time.

Aledmys Díaz (.287/.340/.480) has started eight straight games at first and third base since returning from the IL. He’s been hitting well enough to justify more playing time. I’m not sure the Astros will give him the playing time based on previous usage patterns. I found two stretches where everyone was healthy. In the first one (beginning of the season), he started four of 11 games (36%). During the longer second one (April 24th to June 5th), he started 17 of 39 (43%).

His playing time might be safe for a bit with Yuli Gurriel going to the IL on Friday.

Darin Ruf 러프: He has no fantasy value now that Brandon Belt is off the IL.

Catchers

Travis d’Arnaud: He’s close to returning to the team from the IL and can hopefully return to his 2020 levels of production (.919 OPS)

Elias Díaz: He (.226/.292/.448) has taken over as Colorado’s main catcher. Must-stream at home.

Seby Zavala: He’s taken over the full-time catching duties for the White Sox while hitting .238/.333/.500 in 50 PA.

Jonah Heim: He’s been hitting OK for a catcher (.207/.246/.388 with 8 HR and 2 SB) while starting about half the time.

Keibert Ruiz: In AAA hitting .311/.381/.631 with 16 HR.

Starters

Luis Patiño: While his 1.20 WHIP is acceptable, his 4.42 ERA (with matching estimators) is not. His 28% GB% has led to a ton of flyballs and a 1.5 HR/9. It’s nice that he gets to make half his starts in Tampa’s pitcher-friendly stadium.

Ross Stripling: His walk (2.7 BB/9) and strikeout (9.0 K/9) rates are fine but his 37% GB% has led to a 1.9 HR/9 that has pushed his ERA into the mid-4.00’s.

Jesús Luzardo: He feels like a work in progress with a ton of potential. The biggest issue holding him back right now is walks (4.0 BB/9). Even in his last “good” start, he walked three batters in 5 IP. A high-risk gamble in 2021.

Brett Anderson: He’s continuing to do what he’s always done, limit walks (2.5 BB/9) and generate a ton of groundballs (58% GB%). His results have been amazing since the All-Star break (1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP) but they are all because of a .167 BABIP (career .304 BABIP). Every start comes to how many groundballs find holes in the infield defense.

Kyle Freeland: He’s been decent since about Mid-June. From June 16th and earlier, he had a 9.58 ERA and 2.27 WHIP. Since then, it’s a 2.15 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His K%-BB% has jumped from 1% to 17%. One change, besides throwing strikes, is that he’s throwing his changeup 10% points less and his slider and cutter more. He’s a decent starting option depending on the matchup.

Kris Bubic: He’s been better since the All-Star break with ERA estimators in the low-4.00’s and his K%-BB% increasing by 4.5% points. For the fantasy stats that matter, his WHIP went from 1.59 to 1.04 and his ERA from 5.40 to 2.63. Dropping his walk rate from 4.8 BB/9 to 3.4 BB/9 helped. And his ~50% GB% limits home runs.

Cal Quantrill: Since the All-Star break, he has an 8.4 K/9, 0.97 WHIP, and 0.90 ERA. As for changes, he’s abanded his slider for a cutter. He’s been an OK starter this season (1.22 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 3.71 ERA). A fine streaming option.

Adrian Houser: On the COVID-IL.

Eli Morgan: Every time I profile him, I like the 10.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 but then I get to the 2.9 HR/9 (26% GB%). He is showing some signs of not giving up as many fly balls with a 41% GB% over his last two starts.

Nestor Cortes: His overall results (2.15 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9) look great with his ERA estimators in the 4.00 range. As a starter, it’s a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The issue is that his strikeouts as a start are down to 6.5 K/9 and his xFIP is up at 5.28. The main reason for the lack of strikeouts is that he doesn’t have one average or better swing-and-miss non-fastball.

Reid Detmers: He struggled in his MLB debut allowing 6 ER in 4.1 IP. He was pitching better in the minors (3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 16.2 K/9 in 54 AA innings). Monitor to see if he settles down for his next start.

Michael Wacha: He was one of the few two-start options for this current week and he got lit up in his first start (6 ER in 4 IP). He has been hit around (.316 BABIP and 1.7 HR/9).

Carlos Hernández: While his stats as a starter (4.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 3 Wins) look acceptable, his 4.6 BB/9 could be a ticking time bomb. His .220 BABIP won’t last and those extra base runners might eventually get knocked in. Even with the obvious regression, he is still a streaming option with the lack of decent starting pitching on the waive wire.

Braxton Garrett: While the 3.58 ERA would be acceptable, that’s where the good traits end. The soft-tosser (90 mph fastball), has a 4.2 BB/9 leading to a 1.59 WHIP that pushes his ERA estimators into the mid-4.00’s. The walks are going to catch up with him at some point.

Luis Gil: His first major league start went great with 0 ER, 6 K, and 1 BB over six innings. And he has another start for managers to evaluate today. He has a 96-mph fastball with two non-fastballs (slider and change). The underlying monster with him is his walk rate. 6.8 BB/9 in AAA this year. 3.8 BB/9 in AA. 5.5 BB/9 in High-A in 2019.  Hope for the best knowing the walks could tank his WHIP and ERA.

Paolo Espino: As a starter, he has 6.1 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, and a 3.80 ERA (4.57 FIP, 4.81 xFIP). It’s tough for a low-strikeout, low-groundball pitcher to be successful.

Daulton Jefferies While he was getting good results from 2019 and earlier, he’s fallen apart the past two seasons. He’s only been able to throw 7 MLB innings but has allowed eight earned runs. In 59 AAA innings, he has a 5.19 ERA and his strikeouts are down from previous seasons. An unfinished project.

Matt Harvey: The shutout streak came to an end but his last start was a disaster (2 ER in 4 IP). He’s messing a bit with his pitch mix, but he’s still been a below replacement-level pitcher for the past five seasons.

Wil Crowe: He’s got the double whammy going on of too many walks (4.4 BB/9) and home runs (2.1 HR/9). These have led to a 1.56 WHIP and 5.47 ERA. There is the potential for some strikeout upside, but the walks are holding him back.

Jaime Barria: He’s running extremely lucky and still has an ERA over 4.00. He’s always had below-average strikeout, walk, and home run rates and those continue this season. Add all the negatives together and his results are way below league average.

Cole Hamels: He wasn’t horrible in 2019 (1.39 WHIP, 3.81 ERA), but only the Dodgers know what they have right now until he takes the mound.

Chris Rodriguez: Made one six-inning start and was then optioned to the minors. There is potential with his strikeouts (9.5 K/9) and groundball nature (56%), but he has just walked too many batters (4.6 K/9).

Vladimir Gutierrez: Whoa, just because a player has the first name Vladimir, he’s not a must-add. While his 4.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP might not cause an immediate gagging reflex, his 6.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 should.

Griffin Jax: He’s allowing too many walks (3.4 BB/9) and home runs (2.3 HR/9) while not striking anyone out (6.2 K/9).

Charlie Barnes: Where do the Twins continue to find completely useless starters? 3.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. A 6.23 ERA with matching ERA estimators. Ignore.

Relievers – Saves based ranks

Spencer Patton: Good pitcher who is the closer.

Tyler Clippard: Decent pitcher who is the closer.

Dylan Floro: OK reliever who is the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: A below-average reliever who is closer.

Alex Colomé: Bad reliever who is the closer.

Cole Sulser: Good pitcher who is most likely the closer.

David Bednar: Good reliever who may be the closer.

Scott Barlow: Good closer who is sharing the closer duties.

Manuel Rodriguez: OK reliever who may be the closer.

Devin Williams: Great reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Jonathan Loaisiga: Good closer who may be the temporary closer.

Andrew Kittredge: Decent reliever who is sharing the closer duties.

Matt Wisler: Decent reliever who is sharing the closer duties.

Mychal Givens: Decent reliever who will eventually get his chance to fail as the closer.

Michael Lorenzen: A decent reliever who will likely get a Save chance since no one else in the Reds bullpen wants the closer’s role.

Brad Boxberger: Decent reliever who is temporarily next in line for Saves.

Joe Barlow: Good reliever who is next in line to be the closer.