Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
Coors Field is on this slate and it’s free on FanDuel, while about half of the players are underpriced on DraftKings. So this could be a day where we’re all looking at aces for our lineup because they’re affordable with Coors stacks. And it’s a great day to be about the four aces.
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Thanks to the Royals, we have some — uhh — drama on this slate featuring 20 pitchers. 13 of whom have SIERAs under 4.00 this season. Usually, it wouldn’t be so easy to create a pitcher pool with this bunch, but the aces up top with the Royals dynamic make this slate a bit simple.
Usually, I come into this space with a narrowed-down pitcher pool and discuss how I plan to treat that pool. Today, I don’t even have a pool, yet. So, we’re just gonna sort by some data points and see what happens.
Tonight is a smaller slate that we usually discuss. The game theory is different. We shouldn’t just play whoever we want because ownership concentrates heavily in certain pockets. We don’t have to avoid all chalk, but we have to pick our spots. I’m counting six solid spots for us to play pitchers — all favorable for different reasons and carrying different pitfalls.
On a 15-game slate, we can play half of the pitchers in mass multi-entry (MME), but we don’t have to. Trimming the fat with a scalpel, let’s flip the script and start with who I’m definitely not playing.
Of the 16 pitchers on the slate with at least 100.0 innings pitched since 2021, only four have SIERA over 4.00. And that includes Martín Pérez, who has a 3.71 SIERA this season and has yet to give up a home run through 56.1 innings. That said, only Kevin Gausman has a SIERA under 3.50. So, this slate isn’t a meeting of four or five aces, but there is some very good pitching scattered around. This is probably why everyone is pretty cheap on both sites — that pricing is relative to the slate.
There isn’t really a clear direction in which to go with pitching tonight. It really does depends on where we wanna go with hitting and how much leverage we’re looking to apply at the pitcher slot.
There’s a lot of really good pitching in shaky matchups that are fine to play in mass multi-entry, but our primary targets should be the two aces with the matchups on their sides.
The complexity of pitching on this slate is that there’s a lot of noise. Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, and Walker Buehler can all make the claim that they’re aces. But there is one who rises above all of the rest.