Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a great hitter. His strikeout rate is low and he hits the ball very hard. He was really, really good in 2022, but drafting him as the first first baseman in fantasy is risky.

That’s not to say that the other first basemen don’t carry risk. Freddie Freeman is 33-years-old, Pete Alonso hits in a pitchers’ park, and Paul Goldschmidt is 35. Confessedly, we’re gonna be picky with Guerrero in this space. Because of his ADP. When we’re talking about the top-25, scrutiny is a necessary part of the process. You may leave this post thinking Guerrero is worthy of being a top-12 overall pick and the top first baseman. That’s totally fine because Guerrero is fine for that draft slot. The argument here is that we can get a better outfielder or starting pitcher with that pick and wait for first base.

In 2021, Guerrero put together an excellent season. Especially for someone under 25-years-old, let alone just 22. He hit 48 home runs and the Blue Jays lineup helped him to 111 runs batted in and 123 runs scored. He slashed a godly .311/.401/.601 with a .417 xwOBA with a 55.2% hard hit rate and an elite 15.1% barrel rate.

But he came back to earth in 2022.

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Randy Arozarena is a good ballplayer. There’s no denying that. But we need those dingers and RBI and runs and rates for fantasy. Arozarena doesn’t have the rates for our purposes, doesn’t have the raw power to give us the ceiling, plays in a horrible ballpark for power, and will be in the middle of a weak lineup. These are too many red flags for him to be a top-13 outfielder.Arozarena’s .263 batting average in 2022 is fine, but he doesn’t have the big walk rate to boost his OBP where we need it. And even where we don’t score walks, getting on base is imperative toward scoring runs, says Captain Obvious.

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There isn’t a consensus number-one pick or even a consensus top-three this early, but the guy we can bank on being a consensus top-five pick is Trea Turner. And he’s worth it, as you know.

This post is more a message of affirmation than a persuasive one, obviously, but Turner just signed a huge deal with the Phillies changing a couple of vital variables in the Turner owners’ favor.

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We don’t need a post telling us that Spencer Strider is a really good pitcher, but there might be a need for one that he’s already one of the greatest in the game. And his strengths play to everything we want in fantasy.

Shohei Ohtani tops the list of pitchers for obvious reasons, but the next nine or so are more jumbled than we might think. Taking a look at where Strider ranks among all pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched tells an important story:

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Oneil Cruz is probably a superstar in the making, but we should be unsure as to whether or not he can justify his mid-70s ADP, due to his low contact rate, low launch angle, mixed with playing most of his games in PNC Park.

Cruz’ career 92.1-mph exit velocity is electric and a large contributor to his .445 xwoBACON. When he makes contact, he straight-up mashes. But when is a big word, when we speak of his contact.

Yes, it’s a strikeout league, but Cruz’ 35% strikeout rate in 2022 was way above the MLB 22% average. And striking the ball hard doesn’t always yield great results.

Cruz’ 8.3-degree launch angle was well below the MLB 12% rate in 2022. Sure, he had a 16% barrel rate despite this low average launch angle, but his 49% groundball rate is a bit scary. And this wasn’t a result of MLB pitchers pitching him better than MiLB pitching, as he had a 51% groundball rate in Triple-A before getting called up.

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Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

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Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

There is so much pitching that it’s difficult to know where to start. I usually start with the best SP1s and work my way down the value plays. Today, it’s a bit important to look at everyone in small pieces. We’re gonna cut the big pieces of fat with a santoku, feel out the meat, and then finely cut the remainder of what we’re discards with some shears.

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