Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.

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Two things can happen when your opinions differ from the fantasy baseball internet majority. One, you prove to be right and get to “Nah-nah, nah-nah, boo-boo!” all over the place. Or two, you look foolish in front of all your computer friends and have to live with them, not being mad, just disappointed. This time last year I wrote the first episode of The Market and Me and will forever have to live with being higher on Patrick Wisdom than most. He finished 2024 as the 75th-best third baseman at -$32.40. Wisdom wasn’t the only one. Anthony Rendon finished even worse at -$35.40, the 88th-best third baseman in 2024. I was “higher” on both of those players than the market, but the market didn’t have to “rank” 40+ third basemen. I wasn’t necessarily high on Wisdom and Rendon, they were at the very bottom of my ranks. Still, they fell far outside of the imaginary line you can draw through the blue points that make up the relationship between ADP and my rank order, like the way Matt Shaw and Justin Turner do below. The “Market and Me” is an exercise in analyzing my own rankings, looking for where I may need to correct, where I may need to erase and re-order, and where I may plant my flag in the ground.

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The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

• 1st & 2nd Rounds
  • What should you accomplish in the 1st two rounds?
  • Do you need to draft a starting pitcher in the first few rounds of drafts?
  • Overvalued players
    • Should you draft catchers in the first two rounds?
    • Ohtani at 1.1 ?
  • Undervalued players
    • Freddie Freeman’s consistency
  • Players drafted outside the first two rounds, but should be drafted earlier.
  • The Top 3
    • Why Elly De La Cruz should and shouldn’t be considered to be drafted just outside the top 3.
• The ATC Volatility Metrics
• Corner Infield strategy
  • Player pool

ATC Undervalued Players

• Corner Infielders
  • • Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
    • Alec Bohm 3B
    • Yandy Díaz 1B
    • Luis Rengifo 2B/3B
    • Nolan Arenado 3B
    • Andrew Vaughn 1B
    • Michael Busch 1B
    • Ryan McMahon 3B

Injury Update

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Thanks to the additions of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base is feeling a little deeper this year than it has in the recent past.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.

I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.

Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.

I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.

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Earlier this week, Lucas and Jake covered some tough decisions at CI (and helped me make some tough decisions, as well). Today, it is my turn.

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After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

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Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

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Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

I am lucky enough to once again rank players at third base this season. The prep work begins now. First question; who is new to the list? Who will I rank this year that I didn’t rank last year? To answer that question, I loaded up the auction calculator, prioritized the “3B” position, and edited the “Starts to Qualify at Position” way down to five. That means all players who played five or more games at 3B in 2024, get placed in the same pool, on the same scale, and valued based on their Steamer projection. Who did I find that wasn’t around last season? To explain it, a poem:

New to 3B

On these keys I will pound,

on this list Jazz Chisholm Jr. can be found.

And if you please, Joey Ortiz.

While Junior Caminero may drive a Camero,

Vladimir, Jr. Guerrero is instantly a top numero.

Connor Norby likely won’t hit forty,

but with twenty he may be sporty.

–

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Going back in time can be rough. You hop in your DeLorean full of excitement and hop out shocked to see how you looked just a few months ago. What am I wearing? Did I really think that looked ok? Or, in a more relevant use of time travel judgment, did I really think Brett Baty would win the third-base job over Mark Vientos?! In this hypothetical return to the past, there I sit, pushing the buttons of my laptop late at night, typing out the following portion of my preseason third base ranks: Read the rest of this entry »

The theme for the third base position in 2024 seems to be old vets and young guns. Certainly, there are plenty of options in between, but in the first three tiers, it applies perfectly. Beyond that, there are a lot of choices to make and as usual, it highly depends on your draft strategy and roster construction.

Tier four is kind of like a crane and claw game in the waiting area of a big chain restaurant. Pay $0.50, use the joystick to drop the claw, and hope and pray you bring something good back to the drop box. If you make it to Tier five you’re playing for real and if you make it to Tier six, well, you’re a roto-holic. I can’t wait to see how these players shift and change over as Spring Training comes near and draft season begins.

My process for this initial ranking leaned heavily on the auction calculator, which placed all players eligible for 3B due to a 5-game minimum appearance at the hot corner in descending order based on the value expected by Steamer projections. I then did some adjusting and I’ll point out the players that received the biggest positive and negative adjustments. If you’d like to see the raw, unadjusted auction calculator outputs, simply click this link. Let’s get to it, as we open with the best of the best.

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