Changelog

• 2/9/2026 – Light reranking, a couple more capsules, some team changes
• 2/2/2026 – Some reranking based on Suárez signing with the Reds, a few more capsules
• 1/23/2026 – Moved Arenado to a tier now that we know where he’s playing, some team changes, updated ADPs
• 1/13/2026 – Updated ADPs, more capsules, reranking with Alex Bregman signing (and some other minor FA deals)
• 12/31/2025 – Updated ADPs, more capsules, and some reranking.
• 12/24/2025 – Updated ADPs — rerank and more capsules coming between Christmas and New Year’s!
• 12/16/2025 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Hello, and welcome to the 2026 3B rankings! Third base has been a weird position for a while, one that fits a bunch of different types of players; there’s no one archetype that works above all the others. That makes ranking them a little tough, but hey, at least Nos. 1 and 2 were layups (that’s a basketball term). For now, we’ve just got write-ups on the top quartet of third basemen, with plenty more to follow.

One quick note regarding the bottom tier, those in Free Agent Limbo: I don’t actually think those are the least-valuable fantasy third basemen. What I do think is that their value is dependent on where they sign. Will they sign as a regular? A platoon bat? Will they even maintain 3B eligibility?

Full Rankings Without Tiers

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Gianella

Strategy Section

• Multi-positional eligible players
  • Importance & use
  • Should you make a “do not draft” list?
  • Target multi-positional players? Or is it simply a tie-breaker?
  • How to value players who are expected to gain additional positional eligibility early on in the season?
• Colorado Rockies nostalgia
• Shallow vs. Deep positions
  • What is the weakest position this draft season?
• Narrow vs. Wide positions
• Corner Infielders
  • General player pool observations
  • Which statistics should you look to draft from the CI position?

ATC Undervalued Corner Infielders

• Freddie Freeman
• Yandy Díaz
• Alec Burleson
• Luis Arraez
• Alec Bohm
• Jake Burger
• Nolan Schanuel
• Miguel Vargas
• Andrew Vaughn
• Other honerable mentions

Injury Update

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Long weekends are great for quick family trips, maybe some skiing, perhaps just a little extra rest, or the rare Sunday night out. But they are not great for keeping up the pace of rankings articles! Nothing on Monday! Short week! The deadline is coming! But never fear, we are still on track, and today I follow up my third base rankings for 4×4 with a look at all the other Ottoneu formats.

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The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

This list might have caused me more consternation than any other (important note: I haven’t looked at SP yet and that one is always painful). There are question marks up and down the rankings and the number of players who look like they could be sure-fire, high-quality starters but could also be high-risk busts is really high. Is the position deep? Is it shallow? Is it going to be easy to find a third basemen or will we all be dreading lineup decisions by May?

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s about a month and a half left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group. I’ll start with the four infield positions this week and move on to the outfield and pitchers next week.

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Bryce Harper, 1B
Salary: $49, $42
Average Salary: $45
2025 P/G: 6.25
Projected 2026 P/G: 6.45

While Bryce Harper probably isn’t going to hit like he’s one of the top 5 batters in baseball again, he’s still extremely productive as he enters his age-33 season in 2026. A wrist injury in June cost him about a month of the ‘25 season and he’s averaged a little under 130 games played per season over the last five years. While he might not be an iron man, he’s been productive while he’s on the field, putting up a 146 wRC+ during that same five year period. His batted ball peripherals all looked in line with his career norms; his 47.5% hard hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate both look good and his .368 xwOBA was right in line with his actual results on the field.

While his strikeout and walk rates look good on the surface, there are a few yellow flags in his underlying plate discipline stats. His chase rate has significantly jumped over the last few years and it was up to 36.0% in 2025, the second highest mark of his career. He’s being forced to hunt for pitches out of the zone because pitchers simply refuse to give him anything to hit. Since winning his MVP award in 2021, he’s seen the fewest pitches in the strike zone of any batter in baseball by a pretty wide margin. This year, his zone rate was just 42.9%, the lowest in the majors and three points lower than the guy right ahead of him.

Steamer is predicting a bit of a bounce back season for Harper in 2026, though it’s mostly fueled by a jump in BABIP. He’s at the age where power starts waning a bit and the projections see him essentially holding his power numbers steady next year. I guess that’s what worries me. Harper has already slipped a bit from his peak and he’s not getting any younger (no matter how many weird blood procedures he wants to try). If you’re paying a premium in the hopes that he’ll get back to his MVP caliber seasons, you’re likely going to be disappointed.

Keep or cut?

I think Harper’s current average salary of $45 is reasonable for the projected production you’re hoping to get from him in 2026. Like with any aging slugger, there’s some risk involved in paying that much for the downslope of a career. I’m keeping at $42 and I’m shopping my $49 Harper, hoping to pass the buck for that decision to someone else.

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Willson Contreras, 1B
Salary: $15, $14
Average Salary: $14
2025 P/G: 5.24
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.14

Now that Willson Contreras finally lost his catcher eligibility, he’s lost a ton of his fantasy value. A catcher who can put up 5.2 P/G is quite useful — just six other catchers surpassed that mark in 2025 — but a 5.2 P/G first baseman is quite another matter. Fifteen other first basemen surpassed that mark this year and eighteen are projected to be better than that in 2026. Instead of being a top tier option at catcher, Contreras is now a third or fourth tier option at first base.

To be fair, his batted ball peripherals all looked good during his first full season out from behind the plate. The biggest reason why his overall value took a hit in 2025 was because his walk rate dropped nearly five points, down to 7.8%. There was nothing amiss in his underlying plate discipline metrics; his chase rate, contact rate, and swing rates all looked normal. The biggest difference, then, was a higher rate of pitches seen in the zone — the highest zone rate of his career — and a corresponding increase in called strikes seen.

Steamer sees a bounce back in walk rate next year, but his BABIP takes a hit, leading to an overall projection a little worse than what he accomplished in 2025. I don’t have any qualms with the projection — it seems like it’s pretty reasonable — so my issue is with his positional eligibility. Right now, I’ve got him ranked in the same tier as Kyle Manzardo, Spencer Torkelson, and Christian Walker. Each of those players is useful in their own way, but I wouldn’t be comfortable with any of them as my primary first baseman in 2026.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting both of my shares of Contreras. Paying up to $10 for him in next year’s auction is probably reasonable, but getting up to the mid-teens seems like an overpay.

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Alec Bohm, 1B/3B
Salary: $11, $9
Average Salary: $11
2025 P/G: 4.66
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.90

An abysmal first month of the season is bringing down Alec Bohm’s overall numbers from 2025. From May 1 through the end of the season, he posted a .308/.356/.453 slash line, good for a 124 wRC+ and 5.4 P/G.

That’s the kind of production we’ve been expecting to see from Bohm since his exciting debut back in 2020. The unfortunate thing about his excellent finish to the season is that it wasn’t really fueled by a change in any underlying batted ball metrics. He was the same hitter he’s always been, just really unlucky for the first month of the season and then a little luckier than normal over the next five months.

So which version of Bohm can we count on in 2026? Probably the same one we’ve come to know over the last few years — the same one who posted around 5.0 P/G in 2023 and ‘24. That’s a useful corner infielder, but not necessarily a high quality starting option. That’s what Steamer sees as the most likely outcome. If there’s one thing to latch onto as a source of hope, it’s that he ran the highest contact rate of his career this year. With his above average hard hit rate, putting the ball in play more often should lead to more positive results. Unfortunately, his ceiling is capped by how often he puts the ball on the ground and his correspondingly low barrel rate. Unless he can make a significant adjustment to start lofting the ball more often, his hot streak from the second half of this season will likely be the best version of Bohm we’ll see.

Keep or cut?

I’m really on the fence about Bohm. He fits better as a third baseman where the pool is a lot shallower than at first base but the roster where I have him rostered for $9 already has third base covered by José Ramírez. I’m not sure I want to keep him at $11 either, but that’s probably about what he’s going to be auctioned for if I end up cutting him. I think it’ll ultimately come down to my salary cap situation on both teams — if there’s room to roster a premium bench CI, then Bohm seems keepable. If not, he’ll end up a casualty of being good enough without a high potential ceiling to boost his value.

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Adley Rutschman, C
Salary: $30
Average Salary: $21
2025 P/G: 3.79
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.03

I have no idea what to do with Adley Rutschman. To be fair, I don’t think the Orioles know what to do with him either. He had such a promising start to his career and then suddenly collapsed partway through the 2024 season. There was some hope that an offseason would help him get healthy for this year and he’d find a way to bounce back. That obviously didn’t happen. He suffered through two separate oblique strains, and even when he was healthy, he wasn’t producing at the plate.

The weird thing is that his underlying batted ball metrics aren’t out of whack, his plate discipline is still excellent, but he simply isn’t seeing the results that he enjoyed during his first two seasons in the big leagues. Some of that is a dramatic drop from his BABIP but it’s also a deterioration of his plate approach. His strikeout and walk rates aren’t affected, but his ability to hunt for pitches to do damage against has diminished over the last two years — his SEAGER dropped from 21.1 during his rookie campaign to 11.6 in 2025.

Steamer sees a pretty significant bounce back from Rutschman in 2026, but the projection has hedged against his ceiling based on his struggles these past two years. Like I mentioned with Contreras above, just seven catchers crossed the 5.0 P/G threshold this year. If Rutschman can get back to that level of production, he’ll be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. There’s so much risk in paying for that projection knowing that he’s been a below average catcher for a season and a half now.

Keep or cut?

I’m obviously cutting at $30. That’s simply far too expensive for any catcher unless his name is Cal Raleigh. I’d be open to keeping Rutschman around $15, but even at that high a salary, you really need him to figure things out next year and hit his projection.

Three nights before the first game of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs played the Angels in a Spring Breakout game in Arizona. Those in attendance got to see Angels top pitching prospect Caden Dana struggle to make it out of the first inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a home run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.

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Two things can happen when your opinions differ from the fantasy baseball internet majority. One, you prove to be right and get to “Nah-nah, nah-nah, boo-boo!” all over the place. Or two, you look foolish in front of all your computer friends and have to live with them, not being mad, just disappointed. This time last year I wrote the first episode of The Market and Me and will forever have to live with being higher on Patrick Wisdom than most. He finished 2024 as the 75th-best third baseman at -$32.40. Wisdom wasn’t the only one. Anthony Rendon finished even worse at -$35.40, the 88th-best third baseman in 2024. I was “higher” on both of those players than the market, but the market didn’t have to “rank” 40+ third basemen. I wasn’t necessarily high on Wisdom and Rendon, they were at the very bottom of my ranks. Still, they fell far outside of the imaginary line you can draw through the blue points that make up the relationship between ADP and my rank order, like the way Matt Shaw and Justin Turner do below. The “Market and Me” is an exercise in analyzing my own rankings, looking for where I may need to correct, where I may need to erase and re-order, and where I may plant my flag in the ground.

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