The Changing Residency at Third Base
I am lucky enough to once again rank players at third base this season. The prep work begins now. First question; who is new to the list? Who will I rank this year that I didn’t rank last year? To answer that question, I loaded up the auction calculator, prioritized the “3B” position, and edited the “Starts to Qualify at Position” way down to five. That means all players who played five or more games at 3B in 2024, get placed in the same pool, on the same scale, and valued based on their Steamer projection. Who did I find that wasn’t around last season? To explain it, a poem:
New to 3B
On these keys I will pound,
on this list Jazz Chisholm Jr. can be found.
And if you please, Joey Ortiz.
While Junior Caminero may drive a Camero,
Vladimir, Jr. Guerrero is instantly a top numero.
Connor Norby likely won’t hit forty,
but with twenty he may be sporty.
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Once acquired by the Yankees towards the end of July, Jazz moved to the keystone. He had mostly played center field for the Marlins before the trade. He stuck around for 45 games and held his own. Whether he stays there for the 2025 season or not doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes. He’s eligible for the position in most leagues. After Joey Ortiz was traded to the Brewers from the Orioles, he took over as the everyday third baseman and played 134 games at the position. Will he take a step forward towards fantasy relevance in 2025? His defensive ability has certainly earned his bat every opportunity. Among players with at least 400 innings at the third base position, Ortiz tied Matt Chapman for first in Statcast’s fielding run value in runs above average. His bat will need to improve and a high zone contact rate of 92.2% is exciting, yet he may need to sell some of that to improve upon his 4.6% barrel rate, trading contact quantity for contact quality.
Last season, the very first comment posted on my third base ranks was a valuable question from FanGraphs Member (we thank you) Philip Maguran:
“Is Caminero omitted because you don’t think he’ll get enough playing time to deliver value, because you don’t think he’ll perform well enough, or because you think he will play a position other than 3b?”
I responded with a rather flakey, “He probably should have been ranked…” and pointed out that he didn’t qualify based on the auction calculator settings I use to produce my starting point list. The lack of expected playing time kept him off the list once I realized the omission. In 2023, Caminero hadn’t even played in AAA before he made his MLB debut in September. He stuck around for seven games at the very end of the season. Many took that as a sign that he would be in the big leagues at the start of 2024. But to AAA he went and 236 plate appearances he got, slashing .276/.331/.498. He missed time in the middle of the minor league season with a Grade 2 left quadriceps strain, but worked his way back to health in time for a mid-August call-up. In 177 MLB plate appearances, he slashed .248/.299/.424 and one would have to expect Caminero to be a major leaguer in 2025. He’ll be on my ranking list this season.
Vladimir Guerro Jr. can again be treated as a third baseman in 2024 for fantasy purposes. But, is he more valuable as a 1B or a 3B on your fantasy team? This question will be the focus of his analysis in my upcoming ranks. Regardless of whether he plays at 3B this season, that may depend on the Blue Jay’s ability to find a free-agent first baseman, Vlady will have third base eligibility in most leagues after his 12 games at the hot corner in 2024.
Connor Norby (30 games at 3B) will be eligible for third base and a chance at a full season. Jake Burger may have taken the majority of time at third in 2024, but with Emmanuel Rivera now in Baltimore, Norby is the next best option. He has a chance to take the position shifting Burger into more of a DH role, but he’ll need to work on his defense.
Second question; who no longer qualifies for the list? Say farewell to those who found themselves as characters in O-F-F, another po ehm:
O-F-F
Elehuris Montero turned up the stereo,
and Yandy Díaz stretched his legs.
Elly De La Cruz must have hit snooze,
for Michael Busch shares, you’ll have to beg.
Still, third base banked,
Gunnar Henderson won’t be on again,
and Ha-seong Kim will go unranked.
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Elehuris Montero is off to Japan after three major league seasons with the Rockies. He did not follow the very nice upward trajectory it seemed his power would. No, his slugging didn’t increase, it decreased by .122 points. Everything sunk. His average, home runs, runs, RBI, you name it. Maybe we’ll see him again someday, in the big leagues.
Just look at how Yandy Díaz’s plate appearance totals have increased from 2021 to the 2024 seasons:
541 -> 558 -> 600 -> 621
Unfortunately, many of his stats tilted the other way including his home run output, batting average, OBP, and slugging. Even still, a .281/.341/.414 is nothing to scoff at. I’ll take it in 2025 but it will have to be at either DH or 1B. Yandy didn’t play a single game at third. Nor did Elly De La Cruz who played 160 games at shortstop. I can’t wait to see what Elly does next season. I didn’t think any of it would have been done in 2024. He was ranked 10th on my list but that was after considerable point deductions. I am still afraid of a K% higher than 30% but no one will pass up the .459 slugging percentage projected by Steamer, or the 26 bombs and 54 stolen bases either.
Michael Busch was an excellent player to roster in 2024 and he broke out as he was finally given a full-time role. Being able to move him around between the corner infield spots on your roster added flexibility and the .440 slug/21 home run combo made him an everyday fantasy player. He managed a top 20 (20 to be exact) finish among first basemen. But with only one game recorded at the 3B position, he finds himself in the same place as previously lyricized Yandy Díaz, ineligible in most leagues in 2025.
It saddens me to miss the opportunity to write about the previously ranked sixth 3B, Gunnar Henderson. He showed he’s even better than many people thought and finished second as a shortstop, according to the auction calculator’s year-to-date settings. He didn’t need to play third base in 2024 thanks to Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías. Gunnar will be the talk of shortstop rankings around the globe this offseason. Likewise, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 spent all his time at shortstop in 2024. He struggled with injury in the back half of the season and is a free agent at the time of this writing.
As the ranking season begins, I’m excited to sort, order, bump up, and bump down 2025’s third base mainstays. One look at the quick settings on the auction calculator will show you that a lot has changed.
Welcome to third base, new to the list,
off to the next chase, to those we shall omit.