Last Friday, the Twins acquired starting pitcher Pablo López from the Marlins. After spending his entire career in Miami, how might his new park affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
It has always been difficult for me to understand pitcher volatility. Well, the volatility part isn’t hard to understand, actually, it’s very simple. Pitching in the big leagues is incredibly difficult and one tiny little element of a pitcher’s game could be off to make the whole outing unravel. But, what is hard to understand is what little element that is. Did a 1 mph drop on a four-seamer really make it all go south? Or, was it a matter of half an inch of location? Is it even measurable? Like, what if it was just bad gas from the previous night’s chimichanga that threw things off? Do you see where I’m going? I want to know why a pitcher does so well one day and so poorly the next. For my first round of this, I’ll start slow and focus on only one pitch, narrowing the question down to, why does one pitch perform well one day and bad the next? In today’s investigation, I’ll analyze and compare Robbie Ray’s July 3rd 2.6 wSL Pval (Pitch Info) with his July 24th -3.4 wSL pVal. Let’s have some fun.
Read the rest of this entry »
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
Brandon Pfaadt (384 ADP)
The 24-year-old Diamondbacks prospect is getting a ton of hype coming into the 2023 season. Baseball American has him ranked as the team’s fourth-best prospect after a season where he posted a 2.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 over 61 IP in the high-scoring PCL. In AA last season, his performance was worse with a 4.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. The jump in the ERA is from a 1.6 HR/9 and .370 BABIP. Read the rest of this entry »
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
The 36-year-old threw decent last season with a 4.34 ERA (3.85 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, and a 7.6 K/9. After dealing with injuries for a few seasons, he was able to make 31 starts and get 10 Wins.
He’s lost quite a bit of velocity off his sinker (3% SwStr%, 39% GB%) over the past few seasons but he just threw it 25% of the time this past season.
The sinker is horrible but he’s completely backed off its usage with his cutter being his primary pitch. Now, his three non-fastballs get a decent amount of swing-and-miss.
Pitch: SwStr%, Usage
Cutter: 14%, 34%
Slider: 14%, 27%
Change: 19%, 10%
I just don’t see any upside unless he regains some velocity or completely backs off throwing the sinker. If he can stay healthy, he should be a decent part-time streamer.
I feel like I’m right in the middle of the sub-par volume options. Irvin threw 181 innings of 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP ball with a 6.4 K/9. Even with the low strikeout rate, he had the 75th most strikeouts last season and volumed himself to the 146th best pitcher. Depending on the league’s depth, he was either a bench or waiver wire streamer.
Looking forward, the 28-year-old lefty doesn’t have much upside.
He is already not walking anyone with a 1.8 BB/9 last season and a 2.1 BB/9 during his career. His best pitch is his 91-mph four-seamer with a 12% SwStr% and a 31% GB%. Its results are better than 90% of all fastballs in the game. The swinging-strike rate on all the rest of his pitches is lower than his fastball. His change and slider were both at an 11% SwStr%.
One change he could make is to ditch his sinker (25% usage, 5% SwStr%, 42% GB%) and just go four-seam, change, and slider. If he kept their combined swinging strike rates, he would have similar results as Zack Wheeler (11% SwStr%, 2.0 BB/9) and Julio Urias (11% SwStr%, 2.1 BB/9). I doubt he’ll make such a radical adjustment, so it’ll be another boring year 180 below-average innings.
There is no reason to roster any Rockies pitchers besides closers and that includes Marquez. He posted a 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Those stats are comparable to the two pitchers above. Marquez has the disadvantage of throwing half his starts in Colorado therefore his rate stats get pushed up (4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) so compared to those going around, he needs to be ignored.
There is probably a point when his road starts against weak opponents come into play, but so three to four starts during the season. Marquez and his supporting cast aren’t good enough to push his value any higher. Looking over the entire NFBC, I would value him sometime after a 650 ADP.
Boyd missed most of the 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned in September in time to make 10 relief appearances. While he posted a 1.35 ERA (1.61 BABIP) during that stretch, he did so with a 5.4 BB/9 (Zone% down from 53% before the surgery to 47%).
He was throwing his pitches about 0.5 mph harder than before and using them at about the same rate. The one except would be a sinker he threw 15% of the time. The last time he threw a sinker that much was back in 2017.
Overall, it should be a nice groundball pitch with his own 2018 sinker coming in as a comp. Maybe the sinker will help keep the home runs under control (career 1.6 HR) especially with his home fences moving in.
We’re adjusting @ComericaPark’s outfield dimensions and lowering wall heights in key areas prior to Opening Day 2023.
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) January 11, 2023
It’s tough to know what to expect from him next season. The lack of control is concerning, but many pitchers struggle with control when returning from Tommy John surgery. I just don’t see a reason to gamble on a pitcher with a career 4.90 ERA in ~800 IP.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
There are a lot of possible outcomes for the 24-year-old righty. His results in 18 major league innings seemed great (1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP), but he was buoyed by an unsustainable .156 BABIP. The arrows with him are going in all directions. I’ll start with the negatives. Read the rest of this entry »
Last Tuesday, the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year, $34 million contract. While I love New England Clam Chowder and assume Eovaldi enjoyed many bowls of the delicious soup during his four and a half seasons with the Red Sox, he might now be salivating at the prospect of filling his belly with Texas Cowboy soup, which sounds just delightful. Entering his age 33 season, how might the change in home venue affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
Eduardo Rodriguez (305 ADP)
The 29-year-old Rodriguez missed most of last season because of personal reasons. He missed an additional three weeks because of a strained ribcage. Even with the missed time, he was able to make 17 starts. Here are his results from before and after his time off. Read the rest of this entry »
Though it was reported that an agreement was reached a week ago, the Yankees have officially signed Carlos Rodón to a six-year, $162 million contract. The 30-year-old southpaw has revitalized his career the past two seasons after struggling with his control and injuries since his debut in 2015. He has morphed into one of the best pitchers in baseball, but will a move to Yankee Stadium impact his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.
As of right now, these four are penciled to be the sixth man (or at least in contention for that sixth spot) in their team’s respective rotations. Given that it’s mid-December, these situations are all subject to change so one or more of them could break camp with a rotation spot in hand. Even if they don’t, they could be the first man up when someone goes down. And I’m not trying to be pessimistic, it’s always “when”, not “if” as teams simply don’t use the same five starters for an entire season.
Hunter Brown | HOU
The 24-year-old had a brilliant breakthrough season with a 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 21% K-BB rate in 106 innings at Triple-A along with a nice cup of coffee in the major (0.89 ERA in 20 IP). He has premium heat (96.7 mph fastball) and two solid breaking balls that has helped him consistently miss bats throughout his minor league ascent, netting a 31% K rate in 230 innings. He does have a 12% BB rate, too, so there is some control sketchiness to iron out, though he was down to 10% in AAA/MLB this year. Brown also has fantastic groundball rates throughout his career, including a 54% at Triple-A and then a bananas 68% mark in his MLB sample.
