With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the FanGraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 50 starting pitchers according to Steamer’s projections. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda

David Peterson (364 ADP)

The 27-year-old lefty has a ton going for him. A 94-mph fastball. His ERA and ERA estimators were all under 4.00 last season. He had a 10.7 K/9 which was 14th best among all starters with at least 100 IP. He mixed up his pitches by throwing four of them over 12% of the time. His slider is his borderline elite with a 25% SwStr%. He gets a ton of sink on his pitches and had a 49% GB% leading to a 0.9 HR/9.

The only item keeping him from being one of the elite arms in the game is a lack of control.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale

Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)

With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed six starting pitchers whose ERA Pod Projections were significantly lower than their Steamer projections. Now let’s flip to the list of pitchers I highlighted as having ERA downside.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello

Tylor Megill (310 ADP)

I’m a little surprised to see Megill being taken so early because of his 5.13 ERA, three IL trips (biceps, shoulder, COVID), and his final six appearances coming as a reliever. Fantasy managers must be concentrating on his 3.35 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, and 96-mph fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s continue reviewing the results of my Pod vs Steamer series by switching over to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll review my list of six ERA upside guys, or those whose Pod Projections were significantly better than their Steamer forecasts. Leaguewide starting pitcher ERA was at its lowest since 2014, so a list of pitchers with ERA upside should look better.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele

Taijuan Walker (305 ADP)

The 30-year-old Walker is a fine, steady pitcher with a career 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9. He hasn’t deviated from those numbers over his career including this season’s 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.

There doesn’t seem to be any sign of his skills degrading. While his fastball velocity was down compared to 2021 (94.2 mph to 93.5 mph) it was still higher than in both 2019 (93.2) and 2020 (93.3). His 2.6 BB/9 was his lowest since 2016 (2.5 BB/9). His first and second-half K%-BB% was almost unchanged (13.2% to 13.6%).

He’s a nice stable accumulator, especially if he’s on a decent team, like the Mets last season, where he can end up with 12 Wins again. Since he’s a free agent, the team he signs with will determine most of his 2023 value. There is just not much upside or downside with him.

Read the rest of this entry »

2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 11 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.

Read the rest of this entry »