Archive for Starting Pitchers

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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Beyond the Obvious Multi-Fastball Breakouts

Building on the chart we used last week to identify multi-fastball starters, some interesting names did not receive the analysis they perhaps deserved. This second piece seeks to address that, diving deeper into the names that did not fit the profiles identified in the initial piece but deserve coverage nonetheless, both from a pure baseball and fantasy perspective. Of the 38 qualified starters using a multi-fastball approach, 24 utilize a true multi-variant arsenal. The majority of these pitchers are already well known. Deep dives on Bryan Woo or Max Fried are not necessary at this point, but having covered some of the more obvious fantasy adds in part one, there was still plenty more to explore. The updated chart below reflects the latest qualified starter data, including some new names worth keeping an eye on.

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Below are the most significant changes in projected playing time for starting pitchers and relief pitchers from the last four days, after taking last week off due to a lack of important moves. Unfortunately, there were plenty of injuries in the past week to make up for a slow prior seven days.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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Angel in the outfield!

I know, it’s pronounced AHN-hel. He was fine, by the way.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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DeLuca? DeLightful!

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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It’s hard to project how a reliever will turn into a starting pitcher, especially within a season. We expect velocity to decline as a starter, and we imagine arsenals will evolve as they pitch deeper into games. Today, we’ll dive into three pitchers who made this transition in 2026. Two of these pitchers were on fantasy rosters this year and in the past, both entering the season in different roles than they have now. The third’s path to fantasy relevance was through deeper formats.

Like most of my pitching articles, we’re looking at the underlying skills and metrics, diving into the arsenal, movement profiles, locations, and command.

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Once considered anomalies, cutters and sinkers have moved to the forefront of pitchers’ arsenals in 2026. As pitchers develop and pitching staffs look to push the boundaries, increased horizontal and vertical movement on fastball variants has given pitchers yet another edge over hitters. While these pitches have always existed, rather than being utilized as a primary pitch in isolation they are now being used more and more often in relationship to one another. This juxtaposition is what makes them such a challenge for hitters and increasingly popular as an arsenal tool.

So the real question for hitters has become: which fastball is coming? They are being used increasingly interchangeably, thrown from similar release points, with almost identical velocities, which compounds the challenge with each at-bat. From a fantasy perspective, this trend toward a certain profile or archetype of multi-fastball pitcher is one worth monitoring as we consider draft strategy — particularly in the later rounds — or waiver additions, as the never-ending search for value continues.

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Similar to Stuff+’s strong correlation with strikeout rate, Pitching+ sport a -0.506 correlation with ERA among pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings from 2021 to 2025. That means the higher the Pitching+, the lower the ERA. The correlation isn’t quite as strong as Stuff+, but still quite meaningful. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers that have enjoyed the biggest Pitching+ gains and suffered the largest losses this year. We would expect ERA to move in the same direction, but that’s not always the case when lady luck is involved.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Read the rest of this entry »