Starting Pitcher Pitching+ Gainers & Decliners — May 18, 2026

Similar to Stuff+’s strong correlation with strikeout rate, Pitching+ sport a -0.506 correlation with ERA among pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings from 2021 to 2025. That means the higher the Pitching+, the lower the ERA. The correlation isn’t quite as strong as Stuff+, but still quite meaningful. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers that have enjoyed the biggest Pitching+ gains and suffered the largest losses this year. We would expect ERA to move in the same direction, but that’s not always the case when lady luck is involved.

I definitely would not have guessed that Aaron Civale would appear atop the Pitching+ gainers leaderboard. His Stuff+ is up marginally from last season, though remains below average, but it’s his Location+ that has jumped to a career best. That hasn’t helped his strikeout or walk rates, or even his BABIP if you believe better location could lead to softer and more easily fieldable contact. In fact, both his SIERA and xERA sit well above 4.00, as he’s gotten by thanks to a crazy 90.3% LOB%. Essentially, nearly all the baserunners he has allowed have been stranded, which is just not sustainable. If you have been treating him as a shallower league streamer, thank the lucky stars and move on to someone with better skills.

Gee golly, seeing Roki Sasaki’s name sitting second must be reason to celebrate for his owners, eh?! While he gained in both Stuff+ and Location+, it was mostly an 11 point Stuff+ gain driving the overall increase. Of course, it hasn’t done anything positive for his results, as heading into yesterday, he had posted a strikeout rate barely higher than last year’s well below average mark, while he continues to walk batters at a double digit clip. All of that conspired to inflate his ERA and torpedo fantasy teams’ WHIP marks. But wait! Yesterday, he suddenly decided to be good and have perhaps the best start of his short career. Incredibly, he didn’t walk a single batter. It’ll be interesting to see if this is the start of a turnaround or if it ends up just being a blip that suckers fantasy owners into trusting him for more starts.

It’s been a true breakout for Emerson Hancock who went from former top prospect to mid-to-high 4.00 ERA arm with poor strikeout rates to one of the AL’s best pitchers. Whaaaaaaat?! He gained 12 points in Stuff+ and nine in Location+ to drive a 16 point Pitching+ jump. There’s no increased velocity here, though he did maintain last year’s spike and changed his pitch mix. The Pitching+ marks on his four-seamer and sinker have both exploded, nearly entirely driven by Location+ surges, but the rest of his pitches stink. I always hesitate to believe in breakouts driven by better location as that doesn’t seem as sustainable as improved stuff. While he’s clearly a much better pitcher than he had been, I can’t seem him maintaining a high-20% strikeout rate or an ERA right around 3.00. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be mixed league relevant the rest of the year.

Will Warren has always had above average stuff, but this year it’s jumped to a new level, while his Location+ has also improved dramatically. There’s also no velocity jump here and his pitch mix isn’t all that different than it has been previously. In fact, his SwStr% is right around what he had done, while he’s added some called strikes, but his strikeout rate has surged. He’s now leading all qualified starters in CStr%, which is definitely a skill, but not something I trust as much as SwStr%. I believe in him more than Hancock, but I doubt his strikeout rate remains this high.

Jack Kochanowicz remains below the league average, as does both of its components, but hey, at least he’s a lot closer to league average now! With a mid-90s sinker and tons of grounders, he’s someone teams are going to want to keep giving chances to. Unfortunately, he keeps running well below average strikeout rates and walking double digit batters, so it’s hard to keep the faith.

Amazingly, Cam Schlittler’s Stuff+ has only increased by two, so it’s actually been his Location+ jumping by 10 points that’s fueling this Pitching+ breakout. Was he supposed to be this good?! Like the other names, I’m not sure he could maintain his current strikeout rate. Unlike the others, he actually sports an elite SwStr%, but a low CStr% means that his CSW% is merely good, not great. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the tiny 4.9% walk rate, after he posted a 10.2% mark last year. Where did this sudden pinpoint control come from?! He’s a good example of why I always want to buy the stuff and hope the control improves, as opposed to the other way around. He’s definitely the easiest to believe in of the names on this list so far, but obviously he’s not maintaining a sub-2.00 ERA.

Despite his lowest Stuff+ since 2022, Drew Rasmussen’s Pitching+ has spiked thanks to his highest Location+ ever. That’s unlikely to last, but it shouldn’t matter, as he has posted low walk rates throughout his career. Now that his strikeout rate is back up, he’s a legit low-3.00 ERA guy.

Michael Soroka’s Stuff+ has been remarkably consistent since 2020, the first year we have data for. In four of five seasons, his Stuff+ has been between 94 and 96, with a dip in 2023 to 88. That’s not a level where consistency is a positive as it’s below the league average. His Location+, on the other hand, has been all over the map, though he’s sitting on a career best right now. So once again, we find a pitcher whose stuff didn’t improve any, but his location did, and it’s driving a breakout. Back in 2019, Soroka was a groundball pitcher with a middling strikeout rate and strong control. The control has remained, but the grounders are gone, and he’s now a strikeout guy. I would still worry a bit, as a 4.75 xERA suggests he’s been getting hit hard, which is backed up by a 25.6% LD% and only a 2.5% IFFB%. Those marks will likely improve, but he’s riskier than his underlying skills, particularly with below average stuff.

Now let’s flip over to the decliners.

I was a big Zebby Matthews fan last year when he came to spring training with increased velocity. The velocity spike did stick, but he was awful anyway. This year, he’s made one start as an injury replacement and that velocity spike is completely gone. Not only that, but his Stuff+ and Location+ were down dramatically. Again, this was just one start, but he was also underwhelming at Triple-A with just a 21.9% strikeout rate this year. I’ve lost interest here unless the velocity surges again.

Carlos Rodón has now made two starts since returning from injury and while his velocity has been strong and Stuff+ as good as always, his Location+ has plummeted. I normally wouldn’t care about such a decline after just two starts, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and just like with TJ surgery returnees, it could take some time for a pitcher’s control to come back. So it’s very possible that Rodón struggles with his control for some time. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing how long it might take or if he’ll be back to normal his next start. The good news is about his velocity and stuff, but there’s little one could look out for to determine that his control is back since that’s likely to be inconsistent start to start anyway.

With a 15.2% walk rate and a loss of 15 points of Location+ to just 87, it was no surprise that Cole Ragans hit the IL with triceps and elbow issues. The good news is that his Stuff+ is fine, as was his strikeout rate, so it’s just a matter of him returning healthy, whenever that may be.

Max Scherzer is another whose Location+ seemingly predicted injury. With just a 90 Stuff+, his days of fantasy relevance are over even if he does return from the IL.

As a sad Jack Flaherty owner, I have to imagine that he isn’t 100% right. Like the others, his Location+ has dropped 13 points, while his walk rate has skyrocketed. That’s just not normal. Of course, he managed to avoid any base on balls yesterday, so who knows. Oh, and his velocity has been up and down start to start, which is odd, since he opened the season with his velocity up. It’s very difficult for me to drop him in either of the two leagues I own him in, but he’s also making me regret not doing so nearly every single start.

For Bailey Ober to succeed, he absolutely needs his elite command and location. This year, his Location+ sits 11 points lower than last year, to go along with the worst Stuff+ of his career. Oh, and his fastball is averaging just 88.6 MPH. Sounds like a recipe for an ERA over 5.00, right?! Nope! Coming into yesterday’s start, it sat at just 3.46. Both his strikeout and walk rates are at career worst, but he’s gotten by thanks to a .223 BABIP and single digit HR/FB rate. He looks like an ideal sell high target…if anyone is buying.

With a low strikeout rate already, Tomoyuki Sugano would seem to be one of the worst possible choices for the Rockies rotation. Sure enough, his strikeout rate sits at just 12.8%, while his SIERA is at 5.05 and xERA a ghastly 7.19. His Location+ remains strong, but an 80 Stuff+ ain’t going to cut it anywhere, let alone Coors. He shouldn’t be anywhere near anyone’s roster, even in an NL-Only league.

Reid Detmers was a reliever last year, so we would expect his Stuff+ to decline. If anything, this has been an excellent transition, as he has maintained nearly all his Location+ gains and sits with a near elite Pitching+ that’s the highest he’s had as a starter. Naturally, he’s doing what he always does, and that is underperforming his SIERA and xERA. That’s mostly due to a 66.2% LOB%, a mark that’s been up and down throughout his career. It should bounce back and maybe, just maybe, he could nudge his ERA below 4.00 and keep it there.

Connelly Early’s decline is all from Location+, which went from well above average to just below average. His Stuff+ remains just above average, which actually surprises me given his elite strikeout rates in the minors and even during his cup of coffee with the Red Sox last year. Perhaps he was fortunate to post a 16.1% SwStr% with just a 101 Stuff+ last year, but then again, how did he manage such strong minor league marks if his stuff was merely average? I’m tempted to suggest selling here while he has a nice 3.21 ERA, but only middling underlying skills, but I wouldn’t want to recommend such a move and then see his strikeout rate jump closer to his minor league numbers.

This is Michael King’s lowest Stuff+ since 2020, and lowest Location+ and Pitching+ in his career. This is actually the first time his Pitching+ was below average since that 2020 season. The velocity is fine and pitch mix only marginally changed, so it’s weird to see his Stuff+, in particular, plummet. His strikeout rate is also in line with last year, though his lowest since 2021, so you wouldn’t think there’s a Stuff+ problem. Walks have been an issue as he’s in double digits for the first time, but luckily a .240 BABIP has saved him. His ERA should rise above 3.00 but still remain mixed league relevant, obviously, with perhaps a mid-to-high 3.00 mark.

For the full list of Pitching+ gainers and decliners, plus a plethora of additional metrics for both pitchers and batters updated weekly, visit ProjectingX.com to learn more about and subscribe to ProjectingX IQ.