Pitchers change far more frequently than hitters. Their velocity fluctuates from start to start and throughout the season, their pitch mix is often adjusted, and sometimes there are games where the command just ain’t there. So it pays to review a pitcher’s recent skills, as the full season line might not tell the whole story of who that pitcher is right now. With that in mind, let’s find out which pitchers have gained and lost the most SwStk% points over the last 30 days versus the beginning of the season period.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• On Thursday, June 20, the Cardinals and Giants will play their game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The listed field dimensions (321 ft to left, 393 to center, and 332 to right) are comparable to that of Petco Park, though that stadium in San Diego also has the marine layer to suppress offense. Those dimensions are smaller than the average MLB stadium, though renovating the walls and possibly moving them was on the list of preparations for this game. If St. Louis and San Francisco stick with their current rotation, Andre Pallante and Keaton Winn should be the scheduled starters for this game and neither is worth going out of your way to start in an unknown offensive environment.
• The Angels, Nationals, Orioles, and Phillies all have tough matchups on the docket next week. There are just a handful of pitchers who are matchup proof on those teams, but the majority of their pitchers are safe to avoid.
• The Marlins and Twins have pairs of easier matchups on the schedule. Miami might also be recalling Max Meyer this weekend and he’d slot into one of those easy matchups at home next week if he isn’t sent back to the minors.
• We could see the activation of Gerrit Cole, Zac Gallen, and Bobby Miller off the IL next week. None of them have truly desirable matchups on the calendar, particularly Miller who could be activated only to have a start in Coors Field lined up.

Sometimes the scouting report on a player is so straightforward that it doesn’t require a full sentence:

Javier Báez: Throw outside zone.

Among players with at least 150 plate appearances in 2024, only Bryce Harper is thrown to in the zone by pitchers less often than Báez. Here’s a top 10 leaderboard: Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
• Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
• There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

It’s been nearly a month and a half since I last reviewed the starting pitchers who sported the greatest gap between their ERA and xERA marks. So let’s revisit these lists as they could provide you with a quick group of buy low and sell high candidates.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

• The Mets and Phillies head across the Atlantic next weekend for a two game series played in London Stadium. Based on the limited park factors from the previous two series played in England, I’d recommend sitting your starters for both teams. The two games should be pretty high scoring affairs.
• It looks like the Astros have a tough couple of matchups against the Cardinals and the Angels next week. You wouldn’t think that those two teams have high octane offenses, but St. Louis has been playing extremely well recently and Angel Stadium is a particularly easy place to knock balls over the fence. Framber Valdez is probably the only pitcher in their rotation who is matchup proof.

The search for competent pitching is never ending, especially in a year where injuries have taken their toll on so many of the top arms in the game. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Ryan Weathers earned a spot in the Marlins starting rotation with a fantastic spring training and has continued his success into the regular season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs across 21 innings with an excellent 19:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start except for a six run blowup against the Nationals on April 28. His fastball velocity has come down a bit from its peak in April, but it’s still higher than it was last year. The biggest difference maker for him has been his sweeper which is now running a whiff rate over 50%, more than double what it was last year. He’s a former first round draft pick and still only 24 years old so a post-hype breakout isn’t out of the question.

It certainly seemed like Tylor Megill was headed for a big breakout in 2022 but a shoulder injury cost him most of the season. He was inconsistent at best last year, though he did make 25 starts, second most on the Mets. In his final start of the season, he broke out a new splitter — he calls it a spork — and held the Phillies to just a single run in 7.1 innings while striking out seven. He honed that new pitch over the offseason and it’s now a major part of his pitch mix, running a whiff rate over 60%. He’s already been sidelined with a minor shoulder injury this year, but he’s been solid in his three starts, including holding the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings in his last outing.

Matt Waldron isn’t just throwing a knuckleball as a gimmick. He has a full five-pitch arsenal and uses the knuckler as a fully fledged secondary weapon to earn swings and misses. The rest of his pitches don’t really stand out all that much, but when a batter knows he’s going to see at least one or two knuckleballs in an at-bat, that uncertainty keeps them off balance just enough. Over his last three outings, he’s really had his floater working for him; he’s allowed just three runs across 17.2 innings while striking out 25. Because he relies so heavily on his knuckleball, and considering the fickle nature of the pitch, he’s bound to have hot and cold streaks based on how that pitch is performing.

With Devin Williams still sidelined, the Brewers have had some trouble finding reliable high-leverage options for their bullpen. Trevor Megill has settled in as their closer, but they’ve churned through a number of setup men, trying to find someone who can cover the seventh and eighth innings. Enter Bryan Hudson. He’s a lefty with a low-slot release point that gives batters fits. That’s how his fastball plays up despite pedestrian velocity and it gives his sweeper a ton of horizontal break — 17% more than the average for that pitch type. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced this year and is finally seeing regular high-leverage work.

Randy Rodríguez has the profile and pure stuff of a high-leverage reliever, but his lack of command has held him back from truly breaking out. His fastball grades out well thanks to above average velocity and plenty of carry at the top of the zone. He also has a two-plane slider that should be a good weapon for him if he can find a little more consistency with it. He made his major league debut early this month and had a stretch of five scoreless outings snapped yesterday when he allowed three runs to score in an inning of work. He’s more of a speculative add right now since he isn’t seeing much high-leverage work yet, but if he can harness his stuff, he’ll climb the bullpen ladder sooner or later.

The Cubs bullpen has had all sorts of trouble this year. Héctor Neris has seemingly locked down the ninth inning role but Chicago is still looking for high-leverage setup men. That’s how Tyson Miller earned a hold a few days ago a few weeks after being acquired from the Mariners. Miller has the flat fastball thrown from a low release point Seattle seems to love and a horizontal sweeper to go with it. He’s currently listed as the second setup man in the Cubs bullpen behind Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. Porter Hodge is another speculative add if Miller isn’t interesting enough for you. He’s only made three appearances in the majors so far, but he’s struck out 75% of the batters he’s faced. His fastball has good velocity and elite release extension helps it play up even more. He’s also added a splitter to his pitch mix this year and could quickly find himself pitching in high-leverage opportunities.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
• The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
• The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.

A funny thing happens when I check in on my teams each night. Sometimes, I’ll have a pitcher rostered in both my 5×5 roto-league and my Ottoneu points league. In one format a pitcher will bomb and in another, the same pitcher will put up a good score. This happens because the scoring formats are different. In Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, pitchers earn points like so:

IP: 7.4, K: 2.0, H: -2.6, BB: -3.0, HBP: -3.0, HR: -12.3, SV: 5.0 HLD: 4.0

Notice that there is no penalty for earned runs. Typically a pitcher who gives up a walk and a few hits that eventually come around to score will fare better in a points format because the runs did not score on home runs. As long as the pitcher hangs around for a decent number of innings, he’ll do ok. Por ejemplo, in Gavin Stone’s last outing he finished with the following:

6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

That led to 18.3 points in Ottoneu (FG points) and in roto, well, it wasn’t terrible for your ratios but it didn’t help. He did not get the win either, so you likely saw that line and felt disappointed. This article will not detail the inner workings of the FanGraphs points system. Read this Justin Merry article if you’re looking for that. Instead, I will query, merge, and subset some data tables to identify the pitchers who have been better to roster in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues than in your standard roto formats. This is helpful because, oftentimes, Ottoneu players forget there is a difference and leave pitchers hanging around ready to be claimed.

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