Deep League Starting Pitchers: Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz

With Mining the News and post-season crowdsourcing done, it’s time to start looking at deep league starting pitchers. With one NFBC draft done, I have some ADP to use. I’ll skip anyone who remains in the playoffs and will return to them once their season is over.

Jesús Luzardo (302 ADP)

After throwing a career-high 178 IP in 2023, the 27-year-old lefty again dealt with injuries (elbow and back) and threw just 66 IP in 12 starts. Even before going on the IL in late April for the elbow injury, he struggled with a 4.5 BB/9 and 6.58 ERA (4.51 xFIP). His command and results improved once off the IL with a 2.0 BB/9 and 3.98 ERA (4.05 xFIP). His fastball velocity dropped from an average of 95.9 mph to 94.5 mph and his strikeout rate from 9.4 K/9 to 6.9 K/9. After those struggles, he went on the IL for a back injury and never pitches again in 2024.

His last injury update (September 24th) on the Marlins Injuries and Roster Moves page states:

Luzardo has progressed to rotational activities and running. He was placed on the 15-day IL on June 22 before being transferred to the 60-day IL on June 23. Luzardo was scratched from his June 22 start after dealing with a back issue for a couple of weeks.

Moving onto Luzardo’s talent, his career results have been all over the place and it’s tough to know what to expect next season. In 2021, he had a 6.61 ERA (11% K%-BB%) in 95 IP. In 2022, it was a 3.32 ERA (21% K%-BB%) in 100 IP.

One item to consider is his fastball velocity. Here are the combined season results when his velocity averaged above and below 96 mph.

Major difference. Looking at him another way, here are the swinging strike rates on his fastball at different velocities over the last four seasons.

The cutoff between elite and bad fastball is right around 96 mph.

In a shallow league (Yahoo or ESPN), I’d roster Luzardo as a bench arm, give him a couple of starts to be sure of his velocity, and then decide to keep or drop him.

Mitch Keller (303 ADP)

The 28-year-old righty has been the same pitcher over the past three seasons.

The downside is him getting hurt and not throwing but is there any upside? There isn’t anything obvious without a velocity bump or creating an average or better secondary pitch. All three of his current non-fastball posted a below-average swinging-strike rate.

Pitch: SwStr%
Slider: 12%
Cutter: 9%
Curve: 10%

Another possibility is dropping his sinker since it doesn’t miss bats (5% SwStr%) or generate many groundballs (47% GB%). There is nothing much to get excited about without a major talent change. High floor, low ceiling pick.

Tobias Myers (305 ADP)

The 26-year-old righty broke in 138 MLB innings with an 8.3 K/9, 1.17 WHIP, and 3.00 ERA (3.97 xFIP). While he struck out minor league batters at a decent rate (10.1 K/9) over the past three seasons, he struggled with home runs (1.7 HR/9) and walks (3.4 BB/9) leading to a 5.22 ERA (4.97 FIP). He got both under control (2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR) in the majors but at the expense of strikeouts. The strikeout loss might be related to his fastball velocity dropping from 94.1 mph to 93.0 mph. His 4.00 ERA estimators, would value him around Mitch Keller.

Now, there is a bit of upside with Myers. His changeup grades out as his best pitch (STUPH and results), but he only threw it 11% of the time (mainly against lefties 18% vs 4%). The deal is that righties struggled just as much as lefties against the pitch (both at a 17% Whiff%) with righties not getting one extra-base hit against the pitch. He showed a small overall usage increase in September (11.0% to 12.6%), but nothing major.

His cutter is probably the pitch that needs to see its usage drop with just a 5% SwStr% while hitters posted a .849 OPS against it.

I don’t expect a repeat of his 3.00 ERA but one near 4.00 is reasonable if his arsenal stays constant. Now, there is the possibility that he could utilize his changeup more and become a 3.50 ERA talent.

Luis L. Ortiz (308 ADP)

The 25-year-old right had a decent season on the surface with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with the help of a .243 BABIP. After digging deeper, his profile is not as shiny. His ERA estimators (4.25 FIP, 4.59 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA, and 4.38) point to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. In the previous two seasons, he posted a 4.73 ERA (5.23 xFIP). By getting his walks under control (5.1 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9), he went from an unstartable arm to a waiver wire streaming option.

Another item to consider is that he started in 15 games and came in relief in 22 more. He wasn’t used as a high-leverage reliever but threw multiple innings. Just four times threw just one inning and averaged 2.2 IP per appearance. Because he was not going all out in his relief appearances, his relief numbers were similar to his starting stats.

Role: xFIP, WHIP, K%-BB%
Starter: 4.51, 1.00, 13%
Reliever: 4.73, 1.31, 10%

He did make one arsenal adjustment during the season by adding a cutter (7% SwStr%, 31% GB%) and throwing his sinker fewer times (5%, 59% GB%). Up until May 15th, he threw his cutter 8% of the time and sinker 36% of the time. From then on, it was 25% sinker and 22% cutter. Nothing much changed in his profile except his walk rate dropped from 4.9 BB/9 to 2.3 BB/9. While he added a cutter, it doesn’t have a unique movement profile. It’s movement just between his four-seamer and slider.

As for any upside, Ortiz needs to develop a league-average second non-fastball. While he has a decent slider (14% SwStr%, 27% usage), he throws some version of three fastballs. One possible addition would be to bring back his 2023 changeup that had decent results (14% SwStr%, .501 vsOPS) even though the STUPH models hated it.

Overall, there is not much to like with his profile with any step forward needing to involve a velocity uptick or new pitch. Even with them, he might improve to being a 4.00 ERA talent. I’ll pass at this price.