Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 23–29

Welcome back to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways. I’ve marked a handful of pitchers with an (X) if their start next week lines up for Saturday or Sunday and their team has clinched a playoff berth already. Notably, Zack Wheeler is lined up to start on Saturday, but the Phillies may opt to skip that final start to keep him fresh for the first round of the playoffs.
• It’s a good week to own shares of Rangers or Tigers pitching. They both get some pretty nice matchups and Detroit’s Wild Card chase should keep all of their games relevant through the end of the season.
• On the other hand, it looks like a pretty rough week for the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles’s starting rotation is a mess with injuries taking their toll and Bobby Miller getting sent back to Triple-A this week. To make matters worse, they finish the season in Colorado. If they have the division locked up by next weekend, I could see them either skipping Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start entirely or giving him a very short outing to keep him ready for the first round of the playoffs.