Deep League Starting Pitchers: Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
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Roki Sasaki
Jameson Taillon (309 ADP)
The 32-year-old righty remains a stable option averaging 165 IP, 11 Wins, a 3.98 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP over the previous three seasons. It was surprising to see him keep the production up this season with his average fastball velocity dropping from 93.8 mph to 92.4 mph. The decline continued as the season went on.
The velocity drop manifested in a 20% K% in the first half and 17% in the second half.
As I stated in my most recent Mining the News, he plans on regaining some of the lost velocity.
“Definitely proud of the workload,” Taillon said after his 28th and final start this year. “I’m definitely more comfortable here. I know my way around the locker room. I know the staff and stadium workers more. I know my route to the ballpark. All that stuff does matter.
…
“This offseason, I definitely want to smartly find ways to gain some velocity back. (I’ll) show up to spring training ready to do my job, but also be a leader and lead by example. And hopefully impact some of the younger players that I know we have coming up.”
He won’t keep hitters at bay with his fastball but with his diverse arsenal and above-average slider.
Last season, Taillon threw five different pitches between 30% and 11%. By mixing his pitches, hitters weren’t able to square him up as seen by this 7.2% Barrel% (42nd among 58 qualified starters). He needs the variance since his slider (17% SwStr%) is his only pitch with a 10% or higher swinging-strike rate.
I don’t see much upside or downside with Taillon. A steady option.
Brady Singer (312 ADP)
After a disappointing 2023 season (1.45 WHIP, 5.52 ERA), the 28-year-old righty regained some of his 2022 mojo in 2024 (1.27 WHIP, 3.71 ERA).
Two items were behind the improvement. First, his luck improved with his BABIP (.329 to .302) and LOB% (65% to 78%) improving. Both values have jumped around from good to bad each season.
It looks like he’s in for a “down” season in 2025.
The second factor was more strikeouts (7.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9). He generated them by throwing his slider (17% SwStr%) more than any other pitch. Also, he introduced a four-seamer (6% SwStr%) which he threw 10% of the time but is was a non-factor.
The one issue with Singer is that he struggles against lefties.
Batter handedness: K%-BB%, vsOPS, FIP
vsLHB: 12%, .855, 4.80
vsRHH: 19%, .563, 3.05
Against lefty-heavy teams, Singer might be unstartable. Singer is a fine pitcher who should end up around a 4.00 ERA. Just be careful about starting him against teams with good lefty lineups.
Kyle Harrison (317 ADP)
I’m surprised to see the 23-year-old righty being drafted so early. First, he was limited to 124 IP as he dealt with a shoulder issue that ended his season.
Harrison’s 14.3% K%-BB% is similar to the likes of groundball pitchers Logan Webb, Ronel Blanco, and Cristopher Sánchez. The problem is that Harrison gets hit hard and in the air. This season he allowed the 7th highest HardHit% and 3rd highest Barrel% among pitchers with at least 120 IP.
As for his arsenal, he took a hit with over 1 mph loss in fastball velocity. His velocity has been on a steady decline since his MLB debut.
This drop is especially troubling for him since he threw his fastball 58% of the time. His strikeout rate did drop from 9.1 K/9 in 2023 to 8.5 K/9 this past season.
He tried to offset some of the drop by throwing his fastball fewer times (62% to 50%) and his curve/slurve more (20% to 30%), but it doesn’t matter since each of his pitches misses bats at the same rate.
Pitch: SwStr%
Four-seamer: 9%
Curve/Slurve: 9%
Change: 10%
I don’t see a way for Harrison to take a step forward without a major velocity bump and/or a re-engineered pitch. Those two options are the same for every starter. I think there is a place to draft him, this isn’t that place.
Nick Martinez (318 ADP)
The 34-year-old righty has cycled between the rotation and the bullpen over his last three seasons (35 GS, 117 relief appearances). His demand stems from the last 11 games when he posted a 2.42 ERA (3.69 xFIP), 7.5 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9. His 18.4% K%-BB% during that stretch would have ranked 18th among qualified pitchers between Carlos Rodón and Freddy Peralta. Martinez’s upside is that of a top-20 starter because he just has to keep doing what he did at the season’s end.
Martinez has a strong arsenal with six pitches he throws between 6% and 22%. His money pitch is his plus changeup (24% SwStr%). His slider (6% usage) is the only other pitch with a 10% SwStr% or higher. If looking for more upside, he could throw both pitches more often.
The big question for Martinez this offseason is whether he will sign with another team and if . He has a $13M player option that he’ll likely decline and look for a multi-year deal. The hope is that his new team will keep him in the rotation and he can settle in between being a 3.50 ERA and 4.00 ERA talent.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.