The 2024 Most Polarizing Hitters — A Review
The 2024 regular season is officially in the books, which means it’s time to review alllllll my pre-season and some in-season posts. Some of the reviews will follow my promise to be held accountable for my advice, while others will be more of the “let’s see what ended up happening to a pitcher’s velocity or hitter’s FB%” kinda stuff. We’ll start with a fun one, the most polarizing hitters. For this exercise, I used the default NFBC ADP at the time, created a formula to calculate how polarizing a hitter was based on the implied cost of his min and max pick values, then sorted by the difference. Let’s find out whether the crowd, the bulls, or the bears proved correct.
Player | ADP | Min Pick | Max Pick | Difference | Super Secret Ranking Formula | EoS Ranking* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Harper | 17 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 22.1 | 34 |
William Contreras | 71 | 17 | 103 | 86 | 15.5 | 12 |
Lane Thomas | 110 | 30 | 161 | 131 | 14.5 | 122 |
Max Muncy | 166 | 48 | 250 | 202 | 14.2 | 373 |
CJ Abrams | 41 | 16 | 63 | 47 | 11.8 | 64 |
Corey Seager | 29 | 13 | 50 | 37 | 11.6 | 69 |
Mike Trout | 59 | 26 | 97 | 71 | 11.3 | 703 |
Justin Turner | 241 | 82 | 298 | 216 | 11.1 | 336 |
Spencer Steer | 102 | 54 | 193 | 139 | 11 | 85 |
Whit Merrifield | 269 | 98 | 347 | 249 | 10.9 | 618 |
Cody Bellinger | 58 | 28 | 98 | 70 | 10.8 | 91 |
Yandy Díaz | 126 | 51 | 176 | 125 | 10.7 | 199 |
Elly De La Cruz | 26 | 12 | 41 | 29 | 10.6 | 7 |
I highlighted either the ADP, Min Pick, or Max Pick columns depending on which was closer to the EoS (end of season) ranking.
Unless you’re in an OBP league, I have no idea who was drafting Bryce Harper second overall. In his first full year after returning from TJ surgery, he was excellent as usual, and while his HR/FB rate actually fell, he made up for it by raising his FB% to its highest since the short 2020 season. That increase, along with relatively good health, allowed him to return to the 30-homer plateau. The overall line looks pretty close to what expectations should have been, yet he still finished just 34th overall.
William Contreras! Perhaps those selecting him 17th overall had their crystal ball working overtime. This is a fantastic skill set that contributes across the board, and he even swiped nine bases. The only flaw here is a low sub-30% FB%, limiting his home run total. Of course, an increase there and reduction in GB%, would likely hamper his BABIP and therefore bring down his batting average. He’s done this for three straight seasons now, making him a pretty safe bet to repeat, but obviously it’s always a bit riskier paying for a top catcher.
After a real baseball and fantasy breakout in 2023, Lane Thomas reverted right back to his real baseball performance this year, posting a wOBA nearly identical to his mark before last year’s improvement. That said, he essentially traded some homers for more steals, finishing with nearly identical totals when summing the two. But a decline in BABIP killed his average, and his runs scored and RBI totals took a massive hit. He still finished 122nd overall, which actually wasn’t too far off his ADP of 110. The crowd did pretty well here, but I’m sure those who drafted him as early as 30th overall are likely never buying into a previous year breakout again!
Surprisingly, Max Muncy is the first name so far whose poor ranking is driven by injury and missed time. He was limited to just 293 PAs, essentially half a season, but performed exactly as hoped when he did come to the plate. His pick range was pretty massive and it didn’t make much sense to draft a guy 48th overall who has no speed and is a near guarantee to hurt your batting average. Heading into his age 34 season, that injury risk isn’t going away and some of his skills could start to deteriorate, as his SwStk% has set career worsts now for two seasons running.
After swatting 18 homers and stealing 47 bases in a breakout fantasy campaign in 2023, what would CJ Abrams do for an encore?! It was no surprise he made this list of polarizing hitters. While he actually increased his wOBA to a much more palatable .322, and actually increased his power, a 16 steal drop made him a slight disappointment. It wasn’t as much of a lack of trying though, instead his success rate plummeted from 92% to 72%. While there’s no telling how much he’ll run next year and how successful he’ll be, all his metrics support his performance, so I wouldn’t expect a sudden collapse in power or an extended slump to push him to the bench.
Surprise, surprise, Corey Seager failed to reach 600 PAs again. The oft-injured star still managed to follow up well to last year’s performance, but a drop in BABIP to the second lowest of his career, combined with an increased strikeout rate (despite his lowest SwStk% over a full season since his first full year in 2016!), pushed his batting average down to well below last year’s mark and probably below most expectations. The Rangers offense was also weaker than expected, hampering his runs scored and RBI totals to the lowest sum he’s ever posted over a full season.
Man oh man, it was another lost season for future hall of famer Mike Trout, who hasn’t recorded 500 PAs since 2019 (he just missed in 2022). This was his lowest ever season PA total, which is unfortunate because his strikeout rate and SwStk% had rebounded, he was showing off his power by pushing his FB% back over 50%, and he suddenly decided to steal bases again. In a shallow league with a high replacement level, he’ll likely make for an ideal target next year.
I thought it was pretty silly that Justin Turner was going top 100 in any league draft this season, because as strong as his 2023 season was, he was entering his age 39 season! All his metrics actually held up this year, except his power disappeared. Interestingly, he’s been doing an every other year thing with his HR/FB rate, alternating double digit and single digit marks since 2019. If this ends up being his final year, perhaps he’ll have a future as a permanent judge on The Great Food Truck Race!
At the time of my original post, there was a major logjam on the Reds, resulting in playing time concerns for a number of hitters, including Spencer Steer. So after a strong fantasy breakout in 2023, those concerns combined with questions about his ability to steal double digit bases again or maintain a .318 BABIP lingered. Luckily for the bulls, the logjam cleared itself up between suspensions and injuries, and although his BABIP plummeted down to just .260, he stole even more bases (25). The BABIP decline resulted in just a .225 batting average though, but he still managed to rank 85th overall, thanks to going 20/25 and knocking in 92 runners. It’s hard to believe he’ll steal 20+ again, but he’s been a fantastic basestealer, getting caught just three times this year and last.
I couldn’t understand why Whit Merrifield was drafted just inside the top 100 at least once, as he didn’t hold a starting job at the time and ultimately recorded just 335 PAs. He continued to steal bases, but his BABIP hit a career low, and his HR/FB rate slipped to the second lowest of his career. I don’t think a full-time job is in his future again.
Cody Bellinger massively overperformed his xwOBA in 2023, so he seemed like a pretty obvious regression candidate, which the Max Pick people seemed to acknowledge. So what happened? Exactly what the advanced stats suggested. Despite holding onto his strikeout rate gains, his HR/FB rate hit a career low, and a BABIP drop resulted in a failure to hit double digit steals. He’s still just 29, but it’s past time to hold out hope that he’ll rediscover whatever it was that led to his elite 2017 and 2019 performances.
Yandy Díaz enjoyed career bests across the board in 2023, so it was almost guaranteed he would be overvalued heading into this year, especially given an age past 30. All his metrics, like BABIP and HR/FB rate, returned to around his career average, making him pretty worthless in shallow mixed leagues. The drop in walk rate also reduces or completely removes the boost in value he earns in OBP leagues.
Last year’s top overall prospect Elly De La Cruz made a scintillating debut last year, at least for fantasy owners. With a 33.7% strikeout rate and low FB%, many fantasy owners were skeptical. This year, he only marginally improved his strikeout rate, but he raised his FB% significantly, allowing him to exceed 20 home runs, despite a dip in HR/FB rate. Of course, I saved the best for last — he stole a whopping 67 bases, though most of those came in the first half (46). While his batting average remains a risk, he’s pretty much a lock for 20 home runs and 40 steals.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
How come your “Super Secret Ranking Formula” ranked almost everyone in the 10-11 range? That formula needs major adjustment because it doesn’t discriminate performance. Maybe I misunderstood the purpose.
Good question and maybe I should have been more clear. I explained it in my original article which is why I didn’t repeat. That ranking formula pertained to who was most polarizing in drafts at the time. It has nothing to do with end of season rankings or value.