Alas, we have reached the end of the Pod’s Picks and Pans series. We conclude with a look at starting pitchers. Since there are just so many differences of opinion, I didn’t strictly go down the line of pitchers with the largest gaps, but rather cherry picked a bit that would be the most insightful.
Let’s finish up the hitting side of Pod’s Picks and Pans with a look at the outfielders. Since we draft so many of them, there are far more opportunities for disagreement. For this position, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 60 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 60.
Let’s continue my picks and pans with a look at the second base and shortstop positions. Like for the corner guys, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 20 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 20.
March Rankings Updates:
Second Base
Shortstop
It is Bold Prediction season here at Fangraphs and I am ready to improve on my 2.5 correct out of 10 from last year.
This year I decided to do mine a bit different. I have been vacation and busy preparing for my trip to New York for Tout Wars, where I will be crashing/helping out with the festivities and harassing/getting to meet fellow industry colleagues. So, I decided to focus on players and themes that I felt I have not been able to touch on as much on my podcast or here at Rotographs. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I shared my picks and pans at the catcher position by comparing my ranks to the consensus ranks after excluding my own. Continuing through the infield, we’ll combine first and third base together so I can finish these before the season begins. These were the March updated first base rankings and here are the third base rankings.
Unlike catchers, I’m going to restrict my picks to those that made my top 20 and my pans to those that made the consensus top 20.
1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes
Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR — fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.
2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner
Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s Pod’s Picks and Pans time! Last week, we rolled out our updated RotoGraphs positional rankings, so as usual, it’s time to discuss the players I’m in most disagreement on. As suggested by a commenter last year, I’m using the LN function to determine the difference between my rank and the consensus. This method better accounts for the fact that there’s a larger difference in value between a hitter ranked 2nd versus 3rd than one ranked 20th versus 21st.
I’ll start with catchers. Pod’s Picks will only include hitters in my top 24, while Pod’s Pans will only include hitters in the consensus top 24. Keep in mind I removed my ranking from the average and recalculated the average from the Rankings Update.
Alas, it’s finally time to wrap up the Pod vs Steamer Projections series, which pitted my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in several fantasy categories, discussing which players I’m significantly more bullish and bearish on. Last week, I identified 13 pitchers I was far more bullish on than Steamer for ERA. In doing this exercise, I realized I was actually forecasting lower ERAs for the majority of the pitchers we both projected. So now turning to the pitchers I forecasted a higher ERA for, there was literally only 21 to choose from, most of which were within 0.10 runs of each other, which is, like, nothing. But here are seven fantasy relevant pitchers I’m a bit more bearish on than Steamer.
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
Who was the most surprising starting pitcher in fantasy baseball last year? The answer might just be Kyle Hendricks. We ranked him 54th among starters heading into the season and he ended up earning $29.10, fourth most among starters at the end of the year. Oh, and he finished third in the Cy Young award voting. He also posted a suppressed .250 BABIP, a LOB% above 80%, and outperformed his SIERA by the widest margin among all qualified starters. So obviously, the knee-jerk reaction would be to figure some severe regression this season. Right? Let’s find out.
Continuing our weekly series, I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.
PREVIOUS EDITIONS:
BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +17 spots to pick 361
Oh look at you, Jeanmar! Back-to-back weeks as the biggest riser as the market adjusts to him at least starting the season in the closer’s role. Despite his two big jumps, he’s still 120 picks behind Hector Neris, though that’s built on early drafts when most assumed Neris would get the role because he’s actually good at pitching.
