2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans — Catcher

It’s Pod’s Picks and Pans time! Last week, we rolled out our updated RotoGraphs positional rankings, so as usual, it’s time to discuss the players I’m in most disagreement on. As suggested by a commenter last year, I’m using the LN function to determine the difference between my rank and the consensus. This method better accounts for the fact that there’s a larger difference in value between a hitter ranked 2nd versus 3rd than one ranked 20th versus 21st.

I’ll start with catchers. Pod’s Picks will only include hitters in my top 24, while Pod’s Pans will only include hitters in the consensus top 24. Keep in mind I removed my ranking from the average and recalculated the average from the Rankings Update.

I’m guessing that the pessimistic Salvador Perez ranking from the rest of the crew was due to his knee injury scare, but that seems to be of no long-term concern. Thus, I completely ignored it and haven’t adjusted my projections as a result. Perez has been quite consistent, and although he finished ninth in value last year, that was thanks to a .247 average, which I’m forecasting to rebound marginally. Really, after the obvious top three, it’s a whole group of players who could potentially finish fourth and Perez is clearly in the thick of that group.

Interestingly, Stephen Vogt had the largest rank split among the top 18 catchers. I’m most bullish at ninth, two others are sitting at 11, two in the mid-teens, and one all the way at 21! Is this the same player we’re all ranking?! Vogt has cleared 500 plate appearances the last two seasons and continues to act as the Athletic’s full-time catcher, while likely sneaking some at-bats in the DH slot. My projection essentially calls for a repeat of last year, with only the slightest of bumps in the counting stats. I’m not sure what the argument is for expecting significantly worse.

Oyyyy, I had no idea I was more bullish on Yadier Molina. In fact, my knee-jerk reaction is to not draft an old catcher who’s batting average reliant. He finished sixth in value last year, so all of us are expecting some decline. As usual, my projections are virtually spot on with the rest of the systems, so perhaps it’s a valuation thing — my dollar values are liking his batting average more than whatever method for valuing stat lines the other rankers are using. But that’s just speculation.

I’m the most bearish on Russell Martin and one of just two rankers saddling him with a double digit rank. Three of the rankers sit at seven, with the fourth at eight. Clearly I got some ‘splaining to do. Compared to the other projection systems, I’m light on his power and related counting stats. My issue is with his seemingly inflated HR/FB rates, which have sat well above his xHR/FB rates, even after including a park factor adjustment. At age 34, I just can’t forecast continued HR/FB rates in the high teens. So I’m down at 16%, which might be slightly lower than everyone else’s expectations. That, plus a regression of his fly ball rate, which literally hit a career high last year, are hurting his projections.

I’m not sure if it’s correct what the LN function is doing, but it makes Jonathan Lucroy look like my second most bearish player relative to the other rankers! In reality, it’s probably just a dollar or two difference, which is nothing. And hey, someone was even more bearish than me, while two of us slotted Lucroy at three. I think it comes down to how much, if any, HR/FB rate regression are you expecting after he more than double his 2015 mark and easily set a new career high. Don’t point to the park — Milwaukee has actually been significantly better for right-handed home runs than Texas.

I like Willson Contreras just fine, but his xHR/FB rate suggests his actual HR/FB rate is going to fall well below 20%, while his xBABIP sat at just .307, meaning he also has serious BABIP/batting average downside. He’s also likely going to hit toward the bottom of the Cubs order, with little chance of moving up unless injuries strike. In a vacuum, I like him, but compared to what many other fantasy owners might be expecting, I’m out on him.

I’ve been questioned about my Yasmani Grandal ranking and some of it has to do with projected regression in HR/FB rate — he’s not posting another 25.2% mark. I’m down at 18%, which puts my projection close to Steamer. The big issue is how batting average is being valued, as he’s in a similar camp as Molina, but on the opposite side. You’re going to have to do a heck of a lot in the power department to offset my projected .234 batting average. That’s just a killer, even from a catcher.

I’m probably not as far off on Welington Castillo as the rankings suggest and I’m kind of in line with the Fans projections, though in fewer plate appearances. The Orioles do have a solid backup in Caleb Joseph, who was actually a positive pitch framer last season, while Castillo was a negative one. So Castillo is going to see fewer plate appearances than you might think. Oh, and importantly, his BABIP and xBABIP has been all over the place, so you really have no idea what you’re going to get. He could hit a respectable .260-.270 or hurt your team with a .230 mark. And he’s posted underlying skills that support both levels. Beats me which version you’ll get in 2017.