Ben Kaspick’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes

Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR ­­­— fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.

2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner

Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond.

Aledmys Diaz, 26, was on his way to giving Corey Seager a serious run for his money in 2016 N.L. Rookie of the Year discussions before he was hit by a pitch on the hand mid-season and forced to miss significant playing time. All told, in 111 games and 460 plate appearances, Diaz hit .300/.369/.510 with a .370 wOBA and 132 wRC+. His BABIP was sustainable at .312. His strikeout rate was low and his walk rate was above average. While the projections systems do foresee regression across the board, Diaz’s 2016 production looks more sustainable than Turner’s, and he is a sneaky candidate outperform Turner this season and for years to come.

3. The Marlins have baseball’s best offensive outfield

Giancarlo Stanton is the oldest of the three Marlins outfielders, and he’s only 27. He, along with Christian Yelich, 25, and Marcell Ozuna, 26, form what could easily be baseball’s best offensive outfield. Stanton, of course, is capable of hitting the ball harder and farther than just about anyone in baseball. He has a .380 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in his career. If he stays on the field, he’s one of baseball’s premier offensive weapons. Yelich, meanwhile, had a breakout 2016 in which he had a .367 wOBA and 130 wRC+. Before 2016, when he hit 21 home runs, his career high in big flies had been 9. Yelich looks like a breakout star in the making. Ozuna also looked like he was one his way to a big breakout campaign in 2016, but he slowed significantly in the second half (possibly due to injury). In the first half, Ozuna hit .307/.360/.533 with a .377 wOBA and 137 wRC+, but in the second half he fell to a .264 wOBA and 61 wRC+. Such an extreme decline in production could mean Ozuna was hurt, and his monstrous first half is reason enough to believe in the breakout potential. If he, Yelich, and Stanton can put it all together, they could be the best offensive outfield in baseball.

4. The Mariners’ middle infield outperforms the Astros’ middle infield

This entire prediction rides on the fate of Jean Segura. In his four seasons prior to 2016, only once did Segura crack a wRC+ above 68 and a wOBA above .278. In 2016, however, he had a .371 wOBA and 126 wRC+ in 153 games and 694 plate appearances. He was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners this off-season, and, along with Robinson Cano, could be part of an incredible double-play combo. Cano is coming off a .370 wOBA season of his own. Jose Altuve, meanwhile, had a .391 wOBA last season and is projected by Steamer to have a .353 wOBA this year, and Carlos Correa, who had a .349 wOBA last season, is projected by Steamer to have a .354 wOBA this season. No disrespect to Altuve and Correa, who are, by all accounts, two of the very best offensive middle infielders in the sport, but the bold prediction here is that Seattle’s middle infielders, fueled by another spectacular season from Segura, are even better.

5. Jorge Polanco is a must-own fantasy shortstop

Polanco, 23, is one of the more compelling under-the-radar shortstops in 2017. In 69 games and 270 plate appearances last season, he hit .282/.332/.424 with a 101 wRC+. Steamer projects him to hit at a barely below-average clip, but there is definite potential for double-digit home runs and steals with a reasonable batting average and on-base percentage. He projects as Minnesota’s starting shortstop, and by the end of the year he could be easily fall into must-own territory.

6. Matt Duffy has a 5-win season

Duffy, 26, had a breakout campaign with the Giants in 2015 in which he had a 114 wRC+ to go along with 12 home runs and 12 steals in 149 games and 612 plate appearances. Duffy’s offensive output, coupled with his elite third base defense and base-running, netted him 4.8 WAR and a runner-up finish to Kris Bryant in National League Rookie of the Year balloting. As good as Duffy’s 2015 season was, however, 2016 was that much worse. While he still rated well defensively, Duffy slumped at the plate and was traded to Tampa Bay, where he only played a handful of games before finishing the season on the disabled list with an Achilles injury. Duffy projects as the Rays’ primary shortstop moving forward, and if he can stay healthy, he’s capable of double-digit home runs and steals, and the overall offensive upside he showed in San Francisco. If everything breaks right, Duffy’s all-around game could net him a surprising 5-win season in 2017.

7. Joey Votto flirts with a .500 OBP

He’s come (kind of) close before: Votto had a .474 OBP in 2012 and a .459 OBP in 2015. Votto is undeniably the Reds’ best hitter, and Steamer projects a 19.0% walk rate in 2017. With almost no offense around Votto, and the only real calculable effect of a lack of lineup protection being a slight uptick in walks for the batter in question, Votto is primed for another high-.400’s OBP season. The bold prediction here is that the starts align for Votto’s OBP, and he’s able to crack .500 for the first time since Barry Bonds had a .609 OBP in 2004.

8. Lucas Duda exceeds 550 PA and is the Mets’ best hitter by wOBA

Duda has a .345 wOBA and 122 wRC+ in his career. In 2014 and 2015 combined, he had a .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ while averaging 144 games and 575 plate appearances. A back issue, however, slowed Duda in 2016 (he played in only 47 games and had a .304 wOBA), but he appears to be healthy now and is set to be the Mets’ Opening Day first baseman. Depth Charts projects a .344 wOBA for Duda, and a .340 wOBA for Yoenis Cespedes, so it’s not too hard to see Duda as the Mets’ best offensive weapon in 2017 if he can stay on the field.

9. Ken Giles is a top-three fantasy relief pitcher

Before being traded to Houston, Giles had a 1.82 FIP and 1.56 ERA in Philadelphia, one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. He also allowed just three home runs in 115.2 innings. Last season, for the Astros, Giles had a tidy 2.86 FIP, but his ERA ballooned to 4.11 because he allowed a career-high BABIP and home run rate. His strikeout rate, however, at 13.98 K/9, was the best of his career and the fourth-best in baseball (min. 60 innings pitched). Giles is entering his age-26 season, and he projects as Houston’s closer in 2017. Giles put up elite numbers in Philadelphia, so there’s no reason to think he isn’t capable of the same thing in Houston. He allowed a .349 BABIP and 1.10 HR/9 in 2016, both by far the worst of his career. Big rebounds in those departments, where has been excellent in his career, would make Giles once again one of the very best relievers in the game.

10. Pablo Sandoval is a must-own fantasy third baseman

In his career with the Giants, Sandoval hit .294/.346/.465 with a .348 wOBA and 122 wRC+. His well-documented weight issues seemed to play a role in his up-and-down seasons, and that appeared to come into play in his first two seasons in Boston. When he was a Giant, Sandoval had some bad years in which he was very heavy, and that always motivated him to come into camp the following year in terrific shape, and his play on the field was often much improved when he was in slimmer form. Sandoval looks to be physically fit entering 2017, and he’s just 30 years old. While it’s entirely possible that he’s no longer a quality major league bat, there is a reason the Red Sox decided he was worth a five-year, $95M investment. Sandoval’s offensive numbers were always suppressed by playing half his games at AT&T Park, and when he moved to Boston there was reason to be excited about what he could do in a more hitter-friendly environment. The first two seasons for Sandoval in Boston were utter disasters, but it’s not impossible to envision a motivated and slimmer Panda reminding people why he earned the big payday.