2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans — Outfield

Let’s finish up the hitting side of Pod’s Picks and Pans with a look at the outfielders. Since we draft so many of them, there are far more opportunities for disagreement. For this position, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 60 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 60.

Outfielders March Rankings Update

If you’ve been reading my articles over the past couple of years, you’re probably well aware of how the valuation system I use treats speed-only guys. Without arguing which methodology is correct (because seriously, I really don’t know for sure), my dollar values value the pure speed guys more highly than seemingly everyone else. I was hoping to avoid valuation system differences as a reason for my Picks and Pans, but alas, the outfield has forced me into such an explanation.

So here we have Billy Hamilton, A.J. Pollock, Ender Inciarte, Travis Jankowski, Jose Ramirez, Kevin Pillar, and Kevin Kiermaier all falling into about the same bucket. They either earn the vast majority of their value from steals, or a good portion of it.

You know the story on Hamilton, who I famously selected in the second round of the mixed LABR draft in 2015. So it shouldn’t surprise you that I’m more bullish…not necessarily on the projections, but on what that stat line is worth. And man do we disagree, as I’m up at 10 and the most pessimistic ranker is down at 32! The crazy thing is that I didn’t even roster Hamilton in either of my two leagues! So perhaps the perception that speed has become scarce has really inflated his price, as maybe owners are panicking and willing to pay more than they are valuing him at? Or I’ve just been in leagues where there’s one other owner who values him even more than I do.

Interestingly, I bought Hamilton for a mere $8 in my 2016 local league auction, and I believe he went for a whopping $22 this time. Aside from a suppressed BABIP fueled low batting average, he was exactly the same player in 2015 and 2016 from a fantasy perspective!

A.J. Pollock probably has a bit of expectation differences, rather than strictly valuation. He’s coming off a lost injury-marred season and is now 29. I believe in his power and ability to contribute once again in all categories, while his injury was of the freak nature and he shouldn’t be at risk of reoccurence. His steals total is the big question mark as speed ages poorly and now the Diamondbacks have brought on a new manager, whose running philosophy is unknown at this point.

Ender Inciarte makes the list not only thanks to his steals, but also his batting average. He has the classic boring profile with limited power and decent steals numbers, but with a major piece of his value coming from batting average. We tend to discount guys who don’t excite with the counting stats and it makes guys like Inciarte undervalued. I will admit that he’s a guy that I wouldn’t draft at his value because batting average is prone to so much variance due to the bouncing ball that is BABIP, and I’d rather pay for the counting stats. But if we’re just talking final season value based on a projection, he’s a bargain.

How can a guy who’s a real threat to steal 40 bases be ranked outside the top 60, as a guy not worthy of starting in a 12-team league? Travis Jankowski isn’t exactly a strong hitter, but his fantastic defense should keep him in the lineup. And with Alex Dickerson on the shelf with an injury, his playing time should be safe. He’s essentially Hamilton-lite and you can nab him for basically free.

I had no idea I was so much higher on Jose Ramirez until he was scooped up as a bargain in LABR (sadly, not by me). Here’s another one who doesn’t stand out in any particular category, but literally helps everywhere. It’s the whole “30 homers/0 steals looks better than 10 homers/20 steals” perception problem. And Ramirez also batted .312! Batting average is another undervalued category, though perhaps fantasy owners are skeptical since he hit just .219 the prior year and .262 the season before. xBABIP suggests he’s a legit .300 BABIP guy which should ensure he maintains a strong average. Oh, and he qualifies at third too.

Kevin Pillar? His counting stats fell across the board and I’m forecasting a marginal rebound. Once again, 10 homers and 15 steals doesn’t look all that enticing, but it is!

Kevin Kiermaier’s ranks are real interesting. Three of us are in the 30s, one in the 40s, one in the 50s, and one in the 60s. He’s another in the Jose Ramirez mold that does a little of everything, but without the batting average. Unfortunately, he hits too many pop-ups to ever contribute in average, but he should enjoy a mild rebound there. Oh, and for what it’s worth, Travis Sawchik thinks thinks there is breakout potential here.

And then there’s the answer to the question “which of these players doesn’t belong?” Adam Duvall is most certainly not a valuation issue, which is good, because I hate trying to argue something we can’t even prove which side is correct. Frankly, I have no idea why fantasy owners are so down on his potential to repeat his 2016 performance. xHR/FB not only validates his power, but even suggests upside — his mark sat at 19.4% versus a 17.8% actual mark. And being such a fly ball hitter, gains in HR/FB rate will have an increased effect.

Even his batting average should improve thanks to a .298 xBABIP versus a .275 actual mark. While it makes sense to call for some regression, he should see more plate appearances (though none of the projections except mine are calling for that), and should be a lock to hit at least 30 homers. His excellent left field defense should ensure he doesn’t lose playing time due to his suspect plate discipline.

I promised I would discuss my Bryce Harper ranking eventually, and now is finally the time. While everyone sits in the two (!!) to six range, I’m all the way down at 12, which seems downright wrong. Here are my issues:

• I don’t believe in the steals. In fact, I’m projecting regression to just 10. For a guy who continually gets banged up and with a below average Spd score, I just can’t comprehend why he would continue to run. This is especially true because he’s not a particularly strong basestealer (68% success rate last year, 69% career).
• His .264 BABIP was more real than you think. Sure, Harper had never posted a BABIP below .306 before so everyone is assuming a rebound. But, he’s now getting shifted more than ever before and also pushed his fly ball rate up to a career high level. His xBABIP was just .274 last year!
• That power? His HR/FB rates always sat in the mid-to-high teens until his historic 2015 explosion. Doesn’t that season look like the outlier, rather than the performance level he should be expected to return to? His xHR/FB rate suggested he was a bit lucky in 2015 and his 2016 mark completely supported the regression.
• You want to blame his 2016 disappointing performance on injuries/health, right? But that’s the thing with Harper, he’s seemingly always playing hurt! Health is a skill (Giancarlo Stanton nods) and so it’s silly to think that his performance will jump back toward his 2015 level because he is healthier now (yeah, yeah, great, he has six spring homers, whoopty doo)

I like Harper, we all do, and think he’s a fantastic hitter who should most certainly improve from last year. But to pay for him like 2015 is the norm with some small regression built in or that 2016 never happened makes little sense to me. He surely has the ultimate upside to do it again, but you don’t pay for a hitter’s upside if you expect to win in fantasy baseball.

My Nelson Cruz ranking also looks way out of line. This one’s easy. He’s 36 and coming off the two highest HR/FB rates of his career?! Plus, his xBABIP marks suggest a sub-.300 BABIP, as he is one of the rare right-handers that is getting shifted. He has both power and batting average downside even when ignoring his age, then you add in the age component and he’s a classic bust candidate.

Ahhh, Giancarlo Stanton. Can you just stay healthy darnit?! Only 546 projected PA, and he won’t help in average or steals. In a shallow league, I’m definitely willing to take him slightly earlier than my rank or pay a higher price than my value dictates. Since my ranking is strictly mathematically, the lack of PA is hurting him, whereas the other rankers are apparently less worried about the injury risk.

Jose Bautista is 36, has helped in batting average just twice in his entire career, and stopped stealing bases. Oh, and his Brls/BBE was essentially cut in half last year. Sure, perhaps he rebounds, but I’d bet on this just being age-related decline.

Joc Pederson is yet another who seems to be overvalued simply because the weak batting average isn’t take enough of a bit out of his value. It seems clear those minor league steals are never going to come and he gets shifted a ton, putting his batting average at risk. Batting in the bottom half of the Dodgers lineup makes it tough to be a strong contributor in RBI and runs scored.

I love Kyle Schwarber’s power, but he’s not going to face lefties or contribute in batting average. Batting first isn’t much of a help as although he’ll get a bunch more plate appearances, it vastly reduces his RBI chances. Also don’t forget that we still have just 278 MLB plate appearances from him. I keep thinking of him as a sure thing and then have to remind myself that he has barely even played half a season!

I was like 99% sure that Byron Buxton would be overvalued this year. I think these rankings came out before I adjusted his projections to reflect the expectation he’ll open the season in the leadoff slot, so I would have him higher now. But I don’t expect him to last there given my projected .290 OBP. You’re all excited by his offensive explosion in September, and while the power was a pleasant surprise, it came with a 33.6% strikeout rate and .370 BABIP. We also haven’t seen the willingness to run that he displayed in the minors and there’s no indication that he’ll come anywhere near the 25 steals the Fans are projecting. It’s just basically blind optimism at this point.

While his .329 BABIP looks reasonable given his power/speed combo, his xBABIP was just .301. He managed just a .225 average even with a .329 BABIP! He could flirt with the Mendoza Line if that strikeout rate fails to improve and his BABIP drops. I understand the appeal, but as I’ve mentioned above with Harper, it makes little sense to pay for that upside.