Pod vs Steamer Projections — ERA Downside

Alas, it’s finally time to wrap up the Pod vs Steamer Projections series, which pitted my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in several fantasy categories, discussing which players I’m significantly more bullish and bearish on. Last week, I identified 13 pitchers I was far more bullish on than Steamer for ERA. In doing this exercise, I realized I was actually forecasting lower ERAs for the majority of the pitchers we both projected. So now turning to the pitchers I forecasted a higher ERA for, there was literally only 21 to choose from, most of which were within 0.10 runs of each other, which is, like, nothing. But here are seven fantasy relevant pitchers I’m a bit more bearish on than Steamer.

Pod ERA > Steamer ERA
Pod ERA Steamer ERA Diff
Jose De Leon 3.96 3.57 0.39
Robbie Ray 3.87 3.57 0.30
Zack Wheeler 3.82 3.62 0.20
Michael Pineda 3.69 3.51 0.18
Tyler Skaggs 3.73 3.56 0.17
Blake Snell 3.81 3.67 0.14
Tyler Glasnow 3.96 3.85 0.11

This is a much different collection of hurlers than in the ERA upside group. Look at all the excitement! It’s essentially a list of young guys who could very well break out this year. And there’s the rub — for these guys, we’re all just making educated guesses, but it’s much more guessing than is required for the veterans. Although these ERA differences really aren’t all that large after you get past the top two, let’s discuss each anyway.

Surprisingly, Steamer is easily the most optimistic of the systems for Jose De Leon. And it’s easy to see why — it’s projecting a 25.8% strikeout rate! Sure, his minor league marks have been incredible everywhere he has pitched, and over 30% at every stop since 2014, but that’s a mighty high number to project for a pitcher with just 17 MLB innings to his name. By contract, I’m at just 22.1%. To be honest, I’m surprised our projected ERA gap isn’t even larger given the huge difference in strikeout rate forecasts. Let’s also remember that he’s in the American League now, which is going to make strikeouts a bit tougher to come by than when he was with the Dodgers.

Ahhh, Robbie Ray. Every stats nerd’s favorite sleeper. Do you remember how I quickly discussed the differences between Steamer and ZiPS and their treatment of the pitching luck metrics in my ERA Upside article? Ray is an example of the pitcher that ZiPS is usually going to get right, one that may never actually regress to the league average for BABIP. Actually, the projections make little sense for Ray. ZiPS is actually projecting a slightly higher strikeout rate, but an absurd .338 BABIP (yup, there’s the assumption that BABIP is mostly pitcher skill!), yet it’s ERA projection is 3.73 versus a 3.57 mark for Steamer. The latter system is assuming a league average BABIP of .296, which is far better than ZiPS, so it’s a head-scratcher that the ZiPS ERA would be so close to Steamer. With those BABIPs, you would expect a much wider gap.

That said, I’m projecting a .305 BABIP, which is a nice improvement toward the league average, but acknowledges that his batted ball profile needs some work if actual league average is in his future. A Hard% in the mid-30% range is a problem. Oh, and I’m also projecting a slightly lower strikeout rate than Steamer.

Okay, so none of us really have a clue what Zack Wheeler is going to do, let alone what role(s) he’s going to be used in this year. So this one is a total crapshoot. Sounds like his velocity has been good, which is a great sign though. Steamer’s projection is almost all in relief, so that explains why the ERA is lower.

It’s funny to see me on the bearish side of Michael Pineda, and Sporer if you’re reading this, take a screenshot and tweet the beginning of this sentence out. It probably won’t happen again. This is the same situation as Robbie Ray in that Steamer is the most bullish on Pineda’s BABIP and HR/9, while I’m a bit more cautious. The HR/FB won’t fall back to league average because of his home park and can a pitcher really allow a .330+ BABIP two straight seasons on bad luck alone? There’s got to be something missing in his skill set to suppress hits on balls in play. However, I’m still betting lots of the inflated BABIP was bad luck, just not all of it like Steamer is figuring.

Heh, I thought I really liked Tyler Skaggs! For some reason, Steamer is projecting a career best strikeout rate, which might have something to do with his fastball velocity bump last year, which I know Steamer incorporates. That’s really the only source if the discrepancy here. I’m buying in AL-Only leagues though.

Blake Snell is yet another strikeout machine with control problems. Amazingly, Steamer and I are projecting nearly identical strikeout and walk rates. It appears the primary driver of the ERA projection gap is HR/9, which I’m higher at than all the projection systems. They are probably weighing Snell’s minuscule 5.6% mark heavily, whereas I’m completely ignoring it. I still like Snell, but there’s bound to be someone in your league who loves him.

Tyler Glasnow, meet Blake Snell. You’re the same pitcher. Once again, I’m a little more conservative when it comes to projecting strikeout rate, as I’m well below all the systems on his strikeout rate. With only 23.1 MLB innings, we’re all just taking wild guesses anyway. And with Glasnow, it all comes down to his control, not whether his strikeout rate is 23% or 25%.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Broken Batmember
7 years ago

Mike, what adjustments do you make when forecasting a guy coming back from surgery 1.5 years ago. Example: Cobb of Rays. Once upon a time he was Tier 1. So in looking at 2017ST and year end 2016 results, how would you forecast that type of comeback for upcoming year. Lance Lynn would be another.