Market Watch: Don’t Get the ShiNTS

Continuing our weekly series, I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following. Last week I tried the positional thing, but there isn’t always something to discuss at every position so I’m going back to free form.


BIGGEST RISER: Jeanmar Gomez | +17 spots to pick 361

Oh look at you, Jeanmar! Back-to-back weeks as the biggest riser as the market adjusts to him at least starting the season in the closer’s role. Despite his two big jumps, he’s still 120 picks behind Hector Neris, though that’s built on early drafts when most assumed Neris would get the role because he’s actually good at pitching.

BIGGEST FALLER (non-injury): Chris Carter | -7 spots to pick 266

This might be something of a reaction to Carter’s spring (.556 OPS in 25 AB), Gregory Bird’s spring (1.500 in 28), or both, though he has actually been falling since he signed with the New York, so there was trepidation in the market before the Grapefruit League started up. It went really well for Carter last year and he still hit .222 in 644 PA. He’s a year removed from a 24 HR/.199 AVG, so I understand the relative disinterest in Carter. Plus, I’m very high on Bird (though maybe it’s a case of the ShiNTS… more on that later).

NEWCOMERS TO THE TOP 500: Francis Martes at pick 500

The Houston Astros pitching prospect slides into the mix as a late-round gamble for NFBCers. I like David Paulino a little more to make a 2017 impact, but Martes is the higher rated prospect long-term. In fact, he checked in at 18 on Eric Longenhagen’s Top 100 list while Paulino was an also-ran. I’m probably only looking at Martes in AL-only leauges, but he and Paulino should both be on your radar with Houston’s staff not exactly filled with rock-solid assets from either a health or performance perspective.


Mitch Haniger (+11 to 377) might not have hit your radar until he was traded to Seattle, but he was said to be the linchpin that got the deal done by GM Jerry DiPoto. Jason absolutely loves him and secured him for us in LABR Mixed with our first reserve pick. And this hype was all before Spring Training started. Now that he’s decimating the Cactus League (.444/.500/.806 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 36 AB), the hype continues in earnest.

At his peak, he has made his way into the 15th round which is still a perfectly reasonable price for a gamble. He is a late bloomer… well, assuming he blooms… at age-26, but after putting together a filthy .999 OPS in 548 PA at Double- and Triple-A with 25 HR and 12 SB, there are hopes of a solid double-double season. The playing time will certainly be there, especially early on.


Most of the big drops are injury related (Alex Reyes, Sean Rodriguez, Homer Bailey, Sonny Gray, Chris Tillman, Anthony DeSclafani, and David Price) and the non-injury drops generally modest, but there are some interesting ones. Yoan Moncada (-3 to 240) going down after Brett Lawrie got cut from the team is interesting, especially since he’s still subject to Shiny New Toy Sydrome (ShiNTS). Don’t get ShiNTS in your draft, it’s a serious disease.

Matt Holliday (-3 to 260) is curious to me, but of course could just be random fluctuation. Or maybe I’m just too high on him. Health woes have cut his last two seasons short (183 total games), but he got in on the power surge last year with a .215 ISO, so he still managed 20 HR in just 426 plate appearances. Perhaps the switch to DH will keep him upright. I’m pretty excited at this cost.


Minimal movement among the top 100 picks. The big drops are obvious (Price and Dahl -3 each, Zack Greinke -2 after velo concerns) and no one is up more than a single spot. The biggest min pick differences (the highest someone was taken) seem to be WBC-influenced with Christian Yelich (+11 to Min Pick 28) and Carlos Correa (+8 to Min Pick 3). Frankly, I don’t have a problem with either. I was in the “Correa as first rounder” camp last year and his 2016 did nothing to move me off that position. And Yelich is just too good looking to fail.

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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5 years ago

Do you like Turner or Correa better as a second round pick in an OBP league? Thanks Paul