As you may have noticed, I skipped last week’s Pitcher Playing Time Changes because when I ran the query of our database to find the significant changes there really weren’t any. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case this week, as evidenced by Tarik Skubal’s surgery to remove a bone chip. Here are the notable swings for starters and relievers alike:
Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 4/24 to 5/8
Compared to the last couple weeks, nothing hugely consequential with this week’s set of notable pitcher playing time changes. But nonetheless, we’ve got some nuggets to report:
Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 4/17 to 4/24
Andrew Dolphin – USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Happy Friday, and happy Pitcher Playing Time Changes day! I skipped last week because there wasn’t a whole lot going on with playing time changes yet, but unfortunately for the UCLs of Cade Horton and Zach Eflin, that’s not the case this week. Here are the most significant swings in projected playing time:
Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 4/3 to 4/10
Frank Bowen IV – The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
After Wednesday’s introduction to this year’s Position Player Playing Time Changes, it’s time for pitchers! Every Friday, these roundups will work much the same as the position player ones, except I’ll split out starters and relievers. As with position players, this week’s compares changes since March 1, and next week I’ll transition to looking at week-to-week changes. Away we go:
Closers are probably the most exciting, frustrating position to deal with from a fantasy perspective. No other position is as fundamentally shaped by managerial discretion. No other position sees player value fluctuate so wildly. Last year, baseball’s most dominant closer, Mason Miller, lost his job to Robert Suarez at the trade deadline, for reasons wholly unrelated to performance–Suárez simply had performed admirably as closer, and the Padres preferred not to mess with their bullpen hierarchy, even if Miller was their best reliever. This offseason, Suárez himself appears to have already lost his closing job for reasons unrelated to performance, as he has opted for a setup role with the Braves.
This article ranks the closers for saves-only leagues for 2026. These rankings will be updated roughly once a week to reflect the latest happenings. The rankings will shift based on trades, free agent signings, team news, rumors, new projections, sufficiently persuasive reader feedback, and my own arbitrary whims. The list will grow longer as the offseason progresses.
Changelog
3/19/2026
This will be the final update for 2026. There was no major movement, but I made some small tweaks. Good luck this season; May thy closer’s knife neither chip nor shatter.
I lowered Carlos Estévez to tier four. Even though his velocity will likely rebound somewhat during the regular season, his projections are underwhelming enough where it’s hard to justify going any higher.
Clayton Beeter has looked great this spring. His velocity is down slightly, but his K% minus BB% is 36%.
Robert Garcia has had a dominant spring training, with normal velocity and a 42% K% minus BB%.
The messy Brewers situation did not resolve itself during spring training. Trevor Megill still looks likely to be dealt in-season, but it would not surprise me if he receives the bulk of save opportunities until then.
3/14/2026
One team reporter views Jojo Romero as likely closer to start the season, while another sees the situation as unresolved.
Riley O’Brien was predominantly used as closer ahead of Jojo Romero over the final three weeks of the 2025 season, but the situation appears dicier entering 2026. Romero remains a midseason trade candidate, but nothing appears imminent. O’Brien has struggled in his tiny spring training sample. I have bumped Romero just ahead of O’Brien in this update, but it’s close to a toss-up for me.
Taylor Rogers is still my top pick here, but it’s a messy situation with no clear favorite among the obvious candidates.
Josh Hader will begin the season on the injured list, though he emerged from his first spring bullpen feeling good.
On the whole, this is positive news as it looks like Hader will only miss a few weeks to start the year. In the meantime, Bryan Abreu will serve as a temporary top-tier closer.
Robert Stephenson experiences health setback, Kirby Yates viewed as top candidate to close to start the year.
With Stephenson out, Yates looks like a good bet to close for the Angels–at least until Ben Joyce proves he is fully recovered from shoulder surgery.
3/7/2026
Carlos Estévez’s velocity is down this spring.
It is common for closers to show diminished velocity early on in spring training, but Estévez’s average fastball is coming in six miles per hour slower than last year. He enters the season with great job security, but also arguably the worst rate stat projections of any closer, including Victor Vodnik.
Robert Stephenson reached 95 MPH in his first spring session against live hitters.
His average fastball velocity was 96 MPH in 2025, so he’s not far off where he was the last time we saw him healthy. He plans to be ready for opening day, further muddling an already cloudy Angels bullpen picture.
Hader continues to progress in his recovery from biceps inflammation and the team has not yet ruled him out for opening day. He’s heavily discounted in drafts right now given his uncertain health. If the reports on next week’s bullpen session are positive, he could be well worth the gamble, though not for the faint of heart.
2/24/2026
Paul Sewald signs with Diamondbacks.
Sewald jumps to the top of the closing hierachy in Arizona given his experience and recent team comments. However, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson are not far behind him if he stumbles.
It doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, but it could cause him to miss Opening Day, giving Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger a leg up in the Rays closing competition.
Hader is playing light catch as he recovers from biceps inflammation. It doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, but he looks increasingly likely to miss Opening Day.
2/12/2026
Updated ADP data from NFBC Draft Champions to NFBC Online Championships.
Athletics sign Scott Barlow.
Barlow has the most closing experience on the team and his projections are passable. Mark Leiter Jr. has slightly better projections and signed for a slightly bigger contract ($3 million versus $2 million), so this one is close to a toss up–but right now I lean toward the guy with a lengthier track record of closing.
He was dealing with biceps tendinitis and returned to throwing yesterday. He believes it’s a minor concern that won’t impact his availability this year, but it’s enough to ding him a few spots in the rankings, and to bump Bryan Abreu up a few spots.
Kevin Ginkel is healthy, Andrew Saalfrank will miss the year after undergoing shoulder surgery, and A.J. Puk could return from elbow surgery before All-Star break.
Puk is not worth stashing for two months in standard FAAB leagues, but when he returns he is a good bet to reclaim closing duties from Kevin Ginkel, or whomever else has the job. With Saalfrank going down, Ginkel looks like a solid bet for saves to start the year.
Robert Stephenson dealt with multiple arm injuries this offseason, but is ostensibly healthy now.
With Ben Joyceuncertain for opening day, Kirby Yates looks like the clear front-runner for saves to start the year.
Robert Garcia and Chris Martin named as lead candidates for saves for the Rangers.
Texas did not give Martin many save opportunities last season even though he was as dominant as ever, so Garcia is still my preferred pick here–but Martin is also worth drafting later on.
Jordan Hicks traded to White Sox.
Per general manager Chris Getz, “I think the White Sox are at the best if he’s at his best in the bullpen.” Hicks still projects well in a bullpen role and could eventually compete for saves if Seranthony Domínguez falters.
Liam Hendriks signs minor-league contract with Twins.
Hendriks is coming off a rough couple of seasons but has legendary closing pedigree, while the Twins lack a clear closer. Monitor his chances of making the team this spring and consider him as a late dart throw in your drafts.
He joins tier three as he is expected to close. Jordan Leasure and Grant Taylor each take a hit in the ranks. Along with David Robertson, who has now announced his retirement, Domínguez was the last big domino to fall among free agent relievers. There are still a few interesting names left unsigned, like Michael Kopech, but none are a particularly good bet to usurp an incumbent closer regardless of where they end up. That means future movement in the ranks will be driven by trades, injuries, and commentary from the teams themselves.
Rogers immediately jumps to the top of the bullpen hierarchy in Minnesota given his past closing experience and the paucity of strong alternatives in the Twins bullpen. His ERA projections are nothing special, sitting in the high-threes across across most projections, but he’s a solid bet to open the season as closer.
Per Steamer and OOPSY, Loáisiga has the best projections of any healthy D-backs reliever, but he will probably have to work his way up the closer hierarchy as his contract is of the minor league variety. If he looks like a good bet to make the MLB roster this spring, I may need to move him up.
Moving in the fences will likely increase homers, decrease doubles and triples, and boost scoring overall. Carlos Estévez’s rank falls a few spots as his rate stat projections take a hit (note: the park changes are already reflected in OOPSY).
Given his extensive closing experience and Robert Stephenson’s trouble staying healthy, Yates vaults to the top of the Angels hierarchy for me, joining the third tier, while Stephenson drops down to tier four.
This year’s OOPSY projections should be published at some point in the next 24 hours, joining other published FanGraphs projections, Steamer, THE BAT, and (partially) ZiPS. Focusing on ERA projections, here are some relievers OOPSY is bullish on relative to the other systems: Andrés Muñoz (2.51), Griffin Jax (2.68), and Trevor Megill (2.93). OOPSY’s optimism on Muñoz is likely park-related, as it makes use of Statcast park factors that view T-Mobile as more pitcher-friendly relative to FanGraphs park factors. OOPSY’s Jax projection suggests he is one of baseball’s best relievers; he is no lock to lead the closing committee for Tampa, but he has huge upside if he is able to win a large share of the job. Megill’s projection would make him a worthy closer for many MLB teams, but OOPSY is even higher on Abner Uribe. In any case, the Brewers closer situation remains one of the most difficult to parse this offseason.
Closer Monkey and RosterResource are two indispensable sources for understanding bullpen hierarchies and saves situations. They tend to agree more than they disagree, with the two sources currently listing the same name at the top of the hierarchy for 26 of 30 teams. There are four teams where they disagree: the Rays, the Brewers, the Diamondbacks, and the Athletics. I currently side with Closer Monkey on three of those four, also preferring Griffin Jax, Kevin Ginkel, and Mark Leiter Jr. to lead their respective hierarchies, while I am aligned with RosterResource on Abner Uribe over Trevor Megill for now–in large part because I think Megill will be traded to a situation where he may not close. Additionally, I deviate from both sources only on two teams: I have Kirby Yates leading the Angels hierarchy, while both still prefer Robert Stephenson; I also have Kody Funderbunk leading the Twins hierarchy, although that situation is so volatile that I’d guess that their 2026 saves leader is someone that’s entirely off the radar at this point. In any case, from a fantasy perspective, the teams with disagreement are the most interesting–and volatile.
It’s a great landing spot for Fairbanks as he should be the sole closing option in Miami. Accordingly, Calvin Faucher and Ronny Henriquez have been removed from the ranks. Henriquez would have been removed even if he were healthy as a result of the Fairbanks signing, but it was also announced that he is slated to miss the 2026 season after undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery.
It is still difficult to imagine him not handling most save opportunities given his track record but at this point in his career his projections are less than stellar. I added Will Vest to the backend of the ranks as he has much better projections and was used ahead of Kyle Finnegan to close out games at the end of the 2025 season.
Newcomb will be given the chance to start, but he is still a nice late sleeper option for saves as he is more experienced than Jordan Leasure or Grant Taylor, plus he is coming off a strong 2025 season out of the pen.
Diamondbacks are expected to sign a closing option to fill the role until Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk are ready to return in late 2026.
The only issue here is there aren’t a ton of great bullpen options left in free agency. Per RosterResource’s Free Agent Tracker, some remaining arms that might compete for closer are Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald, and Seranthony Dominguez.
12/18/2025 – First Release
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team saves league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.
Mason Miller cemented his status as baseball’s most dominant reliever this past season, with an extraordinary 54.2 K% after joining the Padres. Edwin Díaz slots in next. He has continued his stellar performance year after year, and he will now be closing games for the World Series winners in Los Angeles. The only thing holding back Jhoan Duran’s fantasy value over the last couple of years has been Minnesota’s funky bullpen usage. With the Phillies set on using him as a traditional closer, he could take his fantasy game to the next level. Andrés Muñoz is a trustworthy option, especially in T-Mobile, the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. Aroldis Chapman and Cade Smith are coming off great seasons, pairing elite projections with excellent job security. David Bednar also has a firm grip on the Yankees closing job after an incredible bounceback 2025. Devin Williams struggled uncharacteristically in 2025, with an ERA over four. K% minus BB% and xFIP are better indicators of pitching talent moving forward, however, and Williams’ indicators suggest a bounceback 2026 could be in order, this time closing games in Queens.
Next Best For The Ninth
A nitpick or two keeps these guys from joining tier one.
Ryan Helsley posted an unsightly 7.20 ERA after he was dealt to the Mets. He still has elite velocity and Stuff+ and is a good pick to rebound closing for the Orioles. Daniel Palencia dealt with a shoulder strain last year, but he made it back before the season ended and looked healthy, with normal velocity, in his return–and he has continued to look healthy this spring, particularly during the World Baseball Classic. Jeff Hoffman is a solid bet to bounceback after a down season, but he has less leash now, with Louis Varland, Yimi García, and Tyler Rogers giving the Blue Jays many worthy late-game options if Hoffman stumbles. Ryan Walker ended the season as de facto Giants closer after Randy Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery and Camilo Doval got shipped to the Yankees. He struggled in September and probably does not have a ton of job security, but he still projects well and should get the first chance to close in 2026. Raisel Iglesias ERA projections are no longer elite, but he enters 2026 with a good amount of leash. Pete Fairbanks projects well and is set to serve as sole closer in Miami.
Flawed Saves Heroes
This group contains many potential studs, but some will get knocked down by offseason shenanigans.
Josh Hader would be in tier one if not for health concerns. If you draft Hader, it may be worth reaching a bit to secure Bryan Abreu as a form of high quality health insurance. Abner Uribe is a tier one talent, but the looming threat of Trevor Megill bumps him down to tier two, as it’s not entirely clear who would get the first shot to close for the Brewers in 2026. Both are worthy late-game options, and both could will get a big bump if Megill is dealt to a team where he’d close. Emilio Pagán, Carlos Estévez, Dennis Santana, Seranthony Domínguez, and Kenley Jansen aren’t baseball’s most dominant relievers, but they’re solid, and more importantly, they have good job security to start the year. At the other end of the spectrum, Griffin Jax is an excellent reliever, but he doesn’t have much job security. Notwithstanding, he looks like a great value at ADP.
Closer Dart Throws
A few of these relievers will emerge as awesome closers this year–but which?
Many of these names have closing talent but none of them are a particularly safe bet to stick as closer. Robert Garcia and Clayton Beeter are nice sleeper options with the talent to lock down the role in 2026.
Deep League Fliers
These guys don’t get drafted in most leagues but they could be a factor on the waiver wire during the season.
In a recent article, I wanted to show the average fastball velocity increase from Spring Training to the regular season. I went to Mike Fast’s classic article, “Spinning Yarn: Do Spring Speeds Matter?” at Baseball Prospectus, and noticed it was 15 years old. In the article, he found a 0.6 mph increase from Spring Training to the regular season. As much as I trust Mike’s work, it’s time for an update. After looking at the numbers, the velocity difference has shrunk to almost zero.
To find the change, I took the available Spring Training fastball velocities from the past three seasons for both sinkers and four-seamers. Then I calculated the average and median differences, along with the standard deviation. Additionally, it seems like relievers are down more than starters (>=50% GS/G in regular season) in Spring Training, so I split them up.
That’s pretty much it, so here are the results.
Fastball Velocity Increase from Spring Training to the Regular Season
Pitch (Role)
Average
Median
SD
1 SD (68% chance)
2 SD (95%)
3 SD (99%)
FF (All)
0.26
0.22
0.94
-0.7 to 1.2
-1.4 to 2.4
-2.0 ti 3.6
FF (SP)
0.08
0.07
0.87
-0.8 to 0.9
-1.6 to 1.9
-2.4 to 2.8
FF (RP)
0.37
0.34
0.96
-0.6 to 1.3
-1.2 to 2.7
-1.8 to 4.0
SI (All)
0.18
0.13
0.89
-0.7 to 1.1
-1.4 to 2.1
-2.1 to 3.2
SI (SP)
0.01
0.01
0.81
-0.8 to 0.8
-1.6 to 1.7
-2.4 to 2.5
SI (RP)
0.29
0.24
0.92
-0.6 to 1.2
-1.3 to 2.4
-1.9 to 3.6
2023 to 2025
The overall increase is cut in half from the original study, with starters seeing almost no increase … on average. All the standard deviations approach 1 mph, so there can be some major differences from one pitcher to the next. I included the velocity ranges for different standard deviations. In the best-case scenarios (3 SD), starters gain about 2.5 mph while relievers are adding 4 mph.
With that knowledge, feel free to navigate our player pages to see who is up and who is down. And for me, it’s back to Mining the News.
The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Updated tier placement for one player (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 19 players based on 2026 draft results. Added Paul Sewald, Brooks Raley, Drew Pomeranz, Mason Montgomery, and Cole Henry.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.
Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.
Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.
We flipped the script this week, with Jake Mailhot posting his FanGraphs Points reliever ranks before I posted my 4×4 ranks, but I still wanted to provide my ranks. I am also going to make this article – the last of the ranks before the keeper deadline this weekend! – pull double duty. In addition to my 4×4 tiers, I am going to share my thoughts on Points and 5×5 leagues, as well as head-to-head, rather than doing a full follow-up article. All the same great taste now packed into a single bite.
