Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Outfield

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: MI | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points OF Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Aaron Judge OF 1346.1 2.04 The best hitter in baseball and showing no signs of slowing down.
$55-$65 2 Juan Soto OF 1163.2 1.70 Despite the slow start in his first season in New York, still finished the season as the third most valuable player in Ottoneu.
$45-$54 3 Yordan Alvarez OF 899.5 1.70 Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
$45-$54 4 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 938.9 1.61 Skills all looked intact after he returned from his second major knee injury in late May. Lack of SB shouldn’t be an issue in FGpts.
$36-$44 5 Kyle Tucker OF 882.7 1.49 Should be healthy in 2026 after a finger injury derailed his 2H in ’25. Only question is where he’ll sign — he’ll produce wherever he lands.
$36-$44 6 Kyle Schwarber OF 1016.8 1.49 Even though he re-signed with the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine him repeating his career year from 2025.
$36-$44 7 Corbin Carroll OF 930.0 1.44 Contact quality dramatically improved last year. Could he take another step forward?
$28-$35 8 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 914.7 1.42 Probably won’t return to the .400 wOBAs he posted early in his career, still very productive with .350 wOBAs.
$28-$35 9 Brent Rooker OF 909.0 1.41 Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
$28-$35 10 Julio Rodríguez OF 904.9 1.36 Still hits too many groundballs, but improved his strikeout rate in 2025. Batted ball quality is still there, just needs to elevate more.
$21-$27 11 Byron Buxton OF 731.0 1.44 Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
$21-$27 12 George Springer OF 800.6 1.34 How much do you trust his rebound? Significant skill changes drove improvements, but he’s entering his age-36 season.
$21-$27 13 Seiya Suzuki OF 810.1 1.32 Contact quality still excellent despite second half slump. Plus he stayed healthy all season long.
$21-$27 14 Mike Trout OF 675.0 1.32 How the mighty have fallen. Power output significantly dropped but managed to play more than 130 games for the first time since 2019.
$21-$27 15 James Wood OF 793.1 1.32 Despite second half slump (150 wRC+ in 1H, 93 in 2H), ceiling is extremely high.
$21-$27 16 Riley Greene OF 803.5 1.31 Broke out with 36 HR in 2025, but strikeout rate climbed over 30%. Still starts against LHP, but very unproductive.
$21-$27 17 Roman Anthony OF 686.0 1.30 Extremely impressive big league debut cut short by injury. Could have highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$21-$27 18 Wyatt Langford OF 755.4 1.28 Prospect hype placed too high expectations on him. Slower to develop but still very good player and getting better.
$21-$27 19 Christian Yelich OF 739.6 1.28 Good all around player. Completely healthy season after serious back injury cut 2024 short.
$21-$27 20 Jackson Chourio OF 760.1 1.27 One of the youngest players in baseball with two good seasons to start his career. Still waiting for a big step forward.
$21-$27 21 Jackson Merrill OF 736.2 1.27 Five point increase in strikeout rate led to 20 point drop in wOBA. Contact quality remained solid.
$15-$20 22 Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF 692.0 1.28 Big breakout wasn’t a Sacramento mirage (-9 point wOBA home/road split). Adding OF eligibility definitely helps his value.
$15-$20 23 Jarren Duran OF 810.1 1.27 Issues against LHP keep his ceiling lower than you’d think. Hard to pay more than $20 for what is essentially a part-time player.
$15-$20 24 Teoscar Hernández OF 740.2 1.25 Barrell rate down. Walk rate down. Feels like 2024 was the outlier between two disappointing seasons.
$15-$20 25 Cody Bellinger OF 773.2 1.25 Could be ranked a tier lower depending on where he signs. Big beneficiary of Yankee Stadium’s short porch (76 point wOBA home/away split)
$10-$14 26 Kyle Stowers OF 653.7 1.28 Breakout season in 2025 cut short by injury. All the underlying metrics look solid, needs to prove it in ’26.
$10-$14 27 Kerry Carpenter OF 569.9 1.28 Crushes RHP. Nearly unplayable against LHP. Probably won’t repeat the highs of 2024.
$10-$14 28 Matt Wallner OF 533.1 1.25 No platoon issues last year despite reputation. BABIP dropped 161 points last year, should be better in ’26.
$10-$14 29 Wilyer Abreu OF 564.0 1.23 Big gains in contact rate while improving barrel rate. Top line results didn’t follow underlying metrics, but could take step forward in ’26.
$10-$14 30 Jo Adell OF 678.8 1.22 Big breakout fueled by big contact quality gains. Plate approach still poor which limits his ceiling.
$10-$14 31 Taylor Ward OF 774.0 1.22 Traded away from home run friendly Angels Stadium to unfriendly Camden Yards. Solid hitter but a little worried about new outlook.
$10-$14 32 Oneil Cruz OF 661.4 1.22 Still having trouble turning raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
$10-$14 33 Jurickson Profar OF 699.3 1.20 Carried skills over from 2024 breakout after returning from his PED suspension.
$10-$14 34 Ian Happ OF 780.1 1.20 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$10-$14 35 Brandon Nimmo OF 762.4 1.20 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Will plate discipline rebound?
$10-$14 36 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF 621.2 1.19 Eliminated platoon splits in 2025, though he struggled in San Diego after trade.
$10-$14 37 Alec Burleson 1B/OF 667.1 1.19 Small improvements in plate discipline and contact quality led to big improvements in results.
$10-$14 38 Randy Arozarena OF 790.6 1.19 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Contact quality improved in ’25.
$6-$9 39 Giancarlo Stanton OF 523.1 1.27 Can still crush the ball when healthy. Enjoyed his best offensive season in 2025 since ’17, but only played in 77 games.
$6-$9 40 Tyler O’Neill OF 465.0 1.27 Is he healthy? Can he still hit for power in Camden Yards? Contact quality fell in ’25 but plate discipline bounced back.
$6-$9 41 Ramón Laureano OF 598.2 1.22 Resurrected his career in Baltimore, continued pounding the ball in San Diego. Biggest difference was 4 point improvement in contact rate.
$6-$9 42 Trent Grisham OF 639.3 1.22 Resurrected his career in New York, set career high in HR in 2025. Real change in plate approach from patient to selectively aggressive.
$6-$9 43 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 707.3 1.22 131 wRC+ in 1H, 72 in 2H. Which is the real Pete? Underlying skills stayed stable throughout the year — maybe 2H slump was just bad luck?
$6-$9 44 Brandon Marsh OF 534.9 1.19 Much more aggressive at the plate in 2025 led to improved contact rate, lower walk rate.
$6-$9 45 Andy Pages OF 682.7 1.18 Crushed the ball at home but couldn’t produce away from Dodger Stadium.
$6-$9 46 Anthony Santander OF 633.7 1.16 Shoulder injury cost him nearly all of 2025. If healthy, could be a steal in this tier, but everything hinges on his shoulder.
$6-$9 47 Lawrence Butler OF 640.7 1.16 2024 showed us his ceiling if everything goes right. 2025 showed us his floor if his plate discipline continues to slide.
$6-$9 48 Heliot Ramos OF 716.2 1.16 Barrel rate way down but contact rate way up. Feels like he tried to trade power for contact but the result was a big step backwards.
$6-$9 49 Bryan Reynolds OF 747.0 1.14 Strikeouts up even though chase rate fell. Contact quality stayed steady. Could bounce back if he can get the K’s back in line.
$6-$9 50 Jasson Domínguez OF 526.4 1.14 Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
$6-$9 51 Michael Harris II OF 628.9 1.13 2H surge salvaged his season (47 wRC+ in 1H, 130 in 2H). Projections still really like him, but I’m weary after ’24 and 1H ’25.
$6-$9 52 Luis Robert Jr. OF 575.7 1.13 Improved his plate discipline significantly in 2025. Power still hasn’t returned and healthy will always be a question.
$6-$9 54 Spencer Steer 1B/OF 651.0 1.12 Slowly worked his way back from shoulder injury (113 wRC+ in Aug/Sept). Still feels like 2023 was his high water mark.
$6-$9 55 Daulton Varsho OF 561.6 1.11 Big power spike after returning from shoulder injury. Too many strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling.
$6-$9 56 Lars Nootbaar OF 573.2 1.10 Contact quality remained excellent but wasn’t pulling the ball as much in 2025. Solid floor thanks to good plate approach.
$3-$5 57 Mickey Moniak OF 542.2 1.22 Made real strides forward in Colorado. Strikeouts down, contact quality up, home park is a nice bonus.
$3-$5 58 Masataka Yoshida OF 350.0 1.17 Does he have a regular spot in Boston’s lineup? Injuries derailed his 2025 season but underlying metrics looked normal-ish.
$3-$5 59 Jorge Soler OF 582.8 1.16 Bat speed and power output fell significantly in 2025. Doesn’t have the plate approach to rebound if power is gone.
$3-$5 60 Daylen Lile OF 537.2 1.15 Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
$3-$5 61 Isaac Collins OF 462.4 1.15 Excellent contact skills, little power, can take walks. I actually like his move to KC with it’s huge BABIP boosting park effects.
$3-$5 62 Jesús Sánchez OF 526.6 1.13 Contact quality took a steep dive after being traded to Houston. If it rebounds, could have a much higher ceiling than this ranking assumes.
$3-$5 63 Colton Cowser OF 546.5 1.13 Strikeout rate jumped through the roof in 2025. Untenable at 35%, could make it work at 30%, but the margin is razor thin.
$3-$5 53 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 524.2 1.12 ACL injury means he’ll miss first few months of 2026 season.
$3-$5 64 Evan Carter OF 402.4 1.11 Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
$3-$5 65 JJ Bleday OF 451.1 1.11 Big step backwards in 2025. Cincinnati should be a nice place to hit but he’s probably a platoon player in that lineup.
$3-$5 66 Mike Yastrzemski OF 524.0 1.11 Dropped his strikeout rate below 20% in 2025 and still has pretty good contact quality metrics.
$3-$5 67 Trevor Larnach OF 503.8 1.11 Barrel rate dipped in 2025 but maintained plate discipline improvements from ’24. Might be just a platoon player.
$3-$5 68 TJ Friedl OF 623.5 1.09 Solid plate approach gives him a nice floor. Tries to make the most of his pulled contact with weak contact quality.
$3-$5 69 Jakob Marsee OF 546.9 1.09 Exciting debut might have been BABIP fueled. Even if he doesn’t return to those heights, the skills are decent enough to return some value.
$3-$5 70 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 OF 609.9 1.09 Up-and-down season wound up being just average by the end. Projections see room for growth but I’m not sure from where.
$3-$5 71 Josh Lowe OF 473.3 1.09 Got his strikeout rate under control in 2025 but contact quality cratered. Can he put it all together in ’26? Might be just a platoon player anyway.
$3-$5 72 Steven Kwan OF 692.7 1.08 Even if his BABIP rebounds, it seems like his 2024 power spike was a one-year blip.
$3-$5 73 Brenton Doyle OF 580.5 1.06 Really struggled in 2025 but underlying skills looked intact. Be prepared to sit him on the road.
$3-$5 74 Dylan Crews OF 498.3 1.03 Still waiting for him to acclimate to the big leagues. Ceiling might not be as high as his prospect reports thought.
$1-$2 75 Jahmai Jones OF 196.9 1.32
$1-$2 76 Rob Refsnyder OF 300.3 1.20
$1-$2 77 Luke Raley 1B/OF 347.8 1.15
$1-$2 78 Randal Grichuk OF 320.9 1.12
$1-$2 79 Dominic Canzone OF 395.5 1.10
$1-$2 80 Austin Hays OF 499.3 1.10
$1-$2 81 Dylan Beavers OF 391.4 1.10
$1-$2 82 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 54.1 1.10
$1-$2 83 Heriberto Hernández OF 351.9 1.10
$1-$2 84 Garrett Mitchell OF 233.4 1.09
$1-$2 85 Jordan Beck OF 561.6 1.08
$1-$2 86 Lane Thomas OF 454.9 1.08
$1-$2 87 Nick Castellanos OF 544.8 1.08
$1-$2 88 Harrison Bader OF 512.0 1.07
$1-$2 89 Cedric Mullins OF 499.1 1.07
$1-$2 90 Sal Frelick OF 559.6 1.06
$1-$2 91 Andrew Benintendi OF 526.7 1.06
$1-$2 92 Troy Johnston 1B/OF 275.6 1.06
$1-$2 93 Adolis García OF 607.6 1.06
$1-$2 94 Jake McCarthy OF 320.5 1.06
$1-$2 95 Chase DeLauter OF 522.2 1.05
$1-$2 96 Nathan Lukes OF 355.0 1.04
$1-$2 97 Victor Robles OF 332.4 1.04
$1-$2 98 Jac Caglianone 1B/OF 454.1 1.04
$1-$2 99 Colby Thomas OF 226.2 1.04
$1-$2 100 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 537.1 1.03
$1-$2 101 C.J. Kayfus 1B/OF 356.9 1.02
$1-$2 102 Justin Crawford OF 396.2 1.02
$1-$2 103 Walker Jenkins OF 99.4 1.00
$1-$2 104 Cam Smith OF 430.9 0.99
$0-$1 105 Max Clark OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 106 Josue De Paula OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 107 Zyhir Hope OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 108 Lazaro Montes OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 109 Mike Sirota OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 110 Eduardo Quintero OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 111 Starling Marte OF 343.4 1.08
$0-$1 112 Jake Fraley OF 288.5 1.08
$0-$1 113 Mike Tauchman OF 399.5 1.07
$0-$1 114 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 331.4 1.07
$0-$1 115 Will Benson OF 288.3 1.06
$0-$1 116 Matt Vierling OF 391.4 1.06
$0-$1 117 Carlos Cortes OF 146.3 1.05
$0-$1 118 Alex Call OF 287.8 1.04
$0-$1 119 Wenceel Pérez OF 459.3 1.03
$0-$1 120 Luis Matos OF 295.9 1.03
$0-$1 121 Owen Caissie OF 387.4 1.02
$0-$1 122 Austin Martin OF 277.4 1.02
$0-$1 123 James Outman OF 238.1 1.02
$0-$1 124 Jake Meyers OF 442.1 1.02
$0-$1 125 Zac Veen OF 308.8 1.02
$0-$1 126 Tommy Pham OF 428.1 1.01
$0-$1 127 Chandler Simpson OF 391.1 1.01
$0-$1 128 Michael Conforto OF 423.0 1.00
$0-$1 129 Parker Meadows OF 413.9 1.00
$0-$1 130 Jack Suwinski OF 245.1 0.99
$0-$1 131 Christopher Morel OF 384.2 0.99
$0-$1 132 Jordan Walker OF 443.7 0.98
$0-$1 133 Carson Benge OF 419.0 0.97
$0-$1 134 George Valera OF 353.3 0.97
$0-$1 135 Jhostynxon Garcia OF 359.4 0.97
$0-$1 136 Jerar Encarnacion OF 135.8 0.96
$0-$1 137 Jake Mangum OF 372.5 0.96
$0-$1 138 Justyn-Henry Malloy 1B/OF 135.3 0.93
$0-$1 139 Alan Roden OF 175.3 0.93
$0 140 Max Kepler OF 473.6 1.06
$0 141 Andrew McCutchen OF 487.2 1.05
$0 142 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 307.9 1.02
$0 143 Mark Canha OF 299.1 1.01
$0 144 Sam Haggerty OF 213.1 1.01
$0 145 Connor Joe OF 354.0 1.00
$0 146 Eli White OF 201.5 1.00
$0 147 Chas McCormick OF 211.8 0.99
$0 148 Jarred Kelenic OF 281.2 0.99
$0 149 Zach Dezenzo OF 90.5 0.97
$0 150 Hunter Renfroe OF 357.2 0.96
$0 151 Zach Cole OF 310.9 0.96
$0 152 MJ Melendez OF 307.8 0.96
$0 153 Will Brennan OF 347.2 0.96
$0 154 Griffin Conine OF 305.9 0.95
$0 155 Eric Wagaman 1B/OF 351.0 0.94
$0 156 Denzel Clarke OF 304.1 0.94
$0 157 Jonny DeLuca OF 248.4 0.92
$0 158 Alek Thomas OF 368.9 0.92
$0 159 Blake Perkins OF 256.0 0.92
$0 160 Dane Myers OF 234.6 0.92
$0 161 Drew Gilbert OF 292.9 0.92
$0 162 Kevin Alcántara OF 124.1 0.91
$0 163 Nolan Jones OF 288.7 0.91
$0 164 Tirso Ornelas OF 118.0 0.91
$0 165 Alex Verdugo OF 350.5 0.91
$0 166 Joey Loperfido OF 149.4 0.91
$0 167 Tyrone Taylor OF 328.5 0.91
$0 168 Jose Siri OF 360.7 0.90
$0 169 Myles Straw OF 230.6 0.89
$0 170 Kyle Isbel OF 367.7 0.87
$0 171 Victor Scott II OF 399.5 0.85
$0 172 John Rave OF 130.8 0.85
$0 173 Kameron Misner OF 137.5 0.84
$0 174 Dylan Carlson OF 183.1 0.83
$0 175 Johan Rojas OF 176.5 0.83
$0 176 Bryce Johnson OF 151.6 0.83
$0 177 Jacob Young OF 310.7 0.83
$0 178 Alejandro Osuna OF 109.4 0.83
$0 179 Tyler Black 1B/OF 35.2 0.82
$0 180 Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF 119.4 0.82
$0 181 Drew Waters OF 191.0 0.81
$0 182 Robert Hassell III OF 175.5 0.80
$0 183 Heston Kjerstad OF 99.9 0.76
$0 184 Marco Luciano OF 36.6 0.61





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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