Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered OF Rankings Follow Up

The rankings beat marches on. Yesterday, you saw my 4×4 rankings for outfield and today I’ll share my FanGraphs Points rankings, as well as thoughts on the other formats.

This one should be a little shorter than my middle infield follow up, because I will spend a little less time explaining the “why” behind differences in formats – you can check out the middle infield version if you want those details – and instead focus on the who. That said, I will again leave the FanGraphs Points rankings table for the end, so feel free to scroll down there if that is all you are looking for.

FanGraphs and SABR Points

As a reminder (details in the middle infield post), the biggest changes between 4×4 and FanGraphs points are time missed (which hurts more in 4×4), stolen bases (which matter in points), and batting average (which was a real impact in points, even if we think of these points leagues as OBP leagues). Also, SABR and FanGraphs Points use the same offensive scoring, so the this section is the same for both of them, but keep in mind that SABR leagues use different scoring for pitching which, in my experience, makes bats a bit more valuable overall, relative to FanGraphs Points.

• Some outfielders most impacted by the volume projections (due to injury, platoon risk, park factors, etc.) include Wilyer Abreu (25th ranked OF in my points rankings, 39th in my 4×4 rankings), Kerry Carpenter (28th vs. 37th), Ryan O’Hearn (42nd vs. 50th), and Giancarlo Stanton (47th vs. 66th).
• Those most impacted by steals include Oneil Cruz (23rd vs. 31st) and Daylen Lile (54th vs. 60th, but offset by volume concerns in the projections). Interestingly, this group proves relatively small in projections and rankings and, to be honest, I am not sure why. I suspect it has to be do with stolen base gains being offset by other issues, but you would logically expect outfield speedsters to gain more in the transition to points – compared to guys who don’t run, you would think they are more average vs. OBP,  fewer HR but more doubles and triples (so points would be more forgiving of their power faults), and more likely to maintain playing time thanks to defense. It doesn’t seem to have worked out that way, and I’ll have to dive deeper into that in the future.
• Those most impacted by average include Yordan Alvarez (third in both lists, but a tier higher in points – volume risk also hurts him less in points), Jackson Merrill (17th to 12th), Masataka Yoshida (only up a three spots, but a tier higher – and another with less volume risk in points), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (78th vs. 115th). Somewhat interesting, and maybe answering part of the question asked above, the highest projected batting averages among outfielders from THE BAT X are mostly not high steals guys. Nine outfielders are projected for a .270+ average and while six of them are projected for double-digit steals, most of those are just truly elite bats (Ronald Acuña Jr, Juan Soto, Julio Rodríguez) or very good bats (Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio) who are more valuable in points leagues but don’t really move up the rankings – Merrill aside. The only pure steals guy in that group – Chandler Simpson – is just way down my rankings in both formats. The floor and usefulness are higher for him in points, but I don’t really want or trust him in either of these formats.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level in both formats, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to FanGraphs Points from 4×4 are:
  • Anthony Santander (-$8), Daulton Varsho (-$8), Adolis Garcia (-$6), Heliot Ramos (-$5), Randy Arozarena (-$5), Aaron Judge (+$16), Yordan Alvarez (+$13), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+$9), Jackson Merrill (+$7), and Oneil Cruz (+$7).

Head-to-Head

The overview for head-to-head is that volume matters more than in season-long leagues. You have more games to fill (seven days a week all season rather than 162 games total) and that means platoon guys require more roster balance, injured players are harder to replace, and you generally need more depth. This makes guys who play every. single. day. that much more valuable, and raises some players above replacement level because you need more depth.

• Outfielders who have played at least 310 games the last two seasons combined are Juan Soto, Jarren Duran, Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge and Bryan Reynolds. Other players who missed five or fewer games last year are Julio Rodriguez, Michael Harris II, Tyler Soderstrom, Heliot Ramos, Riley Greene, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and James Wood. Keep in mind that playing a lot last year doesn’t have to mean you play a lot this year – Nick Castellanos almost made that list of players with 310 or more games over two seasons.
• Players who move from below replacement level to above or at replacement level include Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas (though I think he stays below replacement level for me if he’s a small-side platoon), and Evan Carter.
• Other guys I am more intrigued by in head-to-head because I think they are reliably going to be in the lineup when healthy include Steven Kwan, Jakob Marsee, Brenton Doyle, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. These guys have a higher floor in head-to-head because even if they struggle, availability means they can help you keep maxing out games played every week. Marsee is the exception because he could lose his job, but I don’t see another obvious replacement so I think he has a very long leash.
• Note that the biggest impact in this group is that a lowered replacement level means dollars need to be spread more evenly, bringing down the value of some of the highest end players.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level in both formats, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to head-to-head from season-long are:
  • Aaron Judge (-$7), Juan Soto (-$5), Yordan Alvarez (-$4), Ronald Acuña Jr. (-$4), Fernando Tatis Jr. (-$3), Adolis Garcia (+$1), Gavin Sheets (+$1), Brandon Marsh (+$1), Isaac Collins (+$1), and Andrew McCutchen (+$1).

5×5

Steals and RBIs are the biggest driver of statistical difference between 5×5 and the other formats. Steals count in points but at a much lower rate, while RBI don’t count at all outside 5×5. The other big driver of value change is that with so many more ways to accrue value (no power but high average, stolen bases, empty power, etc.) the value curve is, in general, shallower. The top end guys are worth less and more players are worth at least a buck or two. Even way down at replacement level, there are just more options.

• Outfielders whose steals make them valuable in 5×5 when they aren’t in other formats include Dylan Crews (projects at or below replacement level for points leagues and 4×4, but $10 for 5×5), Jakob Marsee (similar, but closer to $8 in 5×5 and a little better overall), Victor Scott II ($5 in 5×5 but shouldn’t be rostered in any other format), Josh Lowe ($4 in 5×5, below replacement level elsewhere), Daylen Lile and Chandler Simpson (both project as $1 in 5×5 with no value elsewhere). A quick note that this is just projections – I like Marsee, Crews, and Lile in other formats as upside plays, but you should only really expect value from them in 5×5.
• The impact of RBI is harder to see because a high RBI projection is usually reflective of a strong offensive profile. But Some names that are impacted are Adolis Garcia (10 steals help, too, but his new lineup has him projected for 79 RBI in 139 games), Daulton Varsho (his 77 projected RBI plus a big HR total are helping make up for ugly batting average), Anthony Santander, and Jo Adell.
• Another thing I am seeing is that low OBP guys – even if they are low average as well – who fill up other categories are much more valuable in 5×5. On the list below the next bullet point, you’ll see names like Daulton Varsho and Adolis Garcia. Average isn’t helping them, but going from 4×4 and points, where OBP and average are the foundation for everything, these guys provide empty power and a bit of speed. While this doesn’t make them good MLB hitters (which shows up in their 101 and 93 wRC+ projections, as well as in their 4×4 and points values), 5×5 isn’t really concerned with how good you are as an MLB hitter. Adolis Garcia can have a really bad year for the Phillies, but if he hits 25+ HR, steals double digit bases, and drives in a decent number of runs hitting behind better hitters, that will make him a useful 5×5 option. The counterpoint to this is that the very best MLB hitters (Judge, Alvarez, Soto, etc.) simply don’t stand out as much in 5×5. The huge advantages they have on getting on base and hitting for a high ISO simply don’t matter in this format. And while they may have advantages in the five categories here, there will be worse players who beat them in certain categories and where they do have big advantages, they are easier to offset.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level in both formats, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to 5×5 from FanGraphs Points are:
  • Yordan Alvarez (-$31), Juan Soto (-$24), Aaron Judge (-$23), Kyle Tucker (-$13), Ronald Acuña Jr. (-$13), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+$15), Luis Robert Jr. (+$13), Adolis Garcia (+$11), Dauton Varsho (+$10), and Randy Arozarena (+$9).

Chad Young’s Tiered OF Rankings for FanGraphs Points