Archive for Hitters

A little over a month ago, I wrote up a handful of hitters that were underperforming their draft cost, were readily available to pick up in most 12-teamers, and why they were primed to break through. 

Looking at underlying numbers from this season and comparing them to last season for struggling players can help identify when a player may be on the cusp of coming on strong after a weak stretch. 

Kyle Stowers was one such player. Coming back from injury, Stowers scuffled through mid-June, with an OPS below .700 and a K% near 30%. But from June 12 on, when I published the piece, he has slashed .261/.341/.521 with seven homers and 23 RBI. He had been squaring up the ball in the weeks leading up to this breakthrough. But without the results. 

Of course, the same process told me to consider Alec Bohm, who is himself rocking on OPS below .700 since I shouted out his hot run at the end of May and into June. I’m no wizard.

But late in the year, hot stretches are incredibly valuable. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that, but it bears repeating. Whether it be in head-to-head leagues, where a hot stretch in the late summer can lift you over opponents, or in season long roto leagues where you find yourself lagging in homers, the hot stretch is like a hot pastrami. Undeniably savory. Perfect. 

Now let’s look at some hitters, focusing on a selection of players rostered at different rates between CBS and Yahoo. Consider these hitters, particularly those in the top tier, options to replace struggling veterans like those that Mike Podhorzer wrote up a few days back. And if you are in a shallower league where these hitters are rostered, consider the art of the deal!

Read the rest of this entry »

Flow like a harpoon daily and nightly…

Rice, Rice, Baby

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed 11 hitters who have disappointed their fantasy owners this year. Today, let’s get happier by flipping to the breakouts. These are the players that win you leagues and you’re always hoping to end up with when spending your last auction dollar.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball is drafting a bust, especially when no one saw it coming. Baseball players are human and sometimes simply have disappointing seasons. It happens. It stinks when you’ve rostered such a player and they help sink your chances at finishing in the money. So let’s discuss 11 veteran hitters who have performed wildly below expectations so far. Will any of them rebound and produce a second half we expected from them to begin with?

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I wrote about the importance of looking at a hitter’s performance on a per-game-started basis, particularly if you are in a daily lineups league. There are real risks to considering a hitter’s overall line without considering what they do when they start, and those risks can cut both ways. If you look at their rate stats and dream on the value of that .350 wOBA, you might miss that they lose plate appearances to pinch hitters, which might cost them 10% or more of their PA, even when they start.

If you look at their per-game stats, you might underrate a player’s power output or stolen base contribution because those numbers look bad overall, but they are actually on pace for 20/20 over 160 games. Today, we’ll account for those risks and look at a set of players whose overall and per-game performance might be hiding how good they have been on a per-game-started basis.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we enter the heat of the post-All-Star break summer, it is a natural point for both reflection and action for our fantasy squads moving forward. This chart plots first-half wOBA against OOPSY’s rest-of-season projection (RoS); the pitching chart will be coming soon. It is a useful way to see the discrepancy between how some hitters have performed and what OOPSY expects for the rest of the season, and to discuss why regression is being projected, and in some cases why it isn’t, across the league.

Read the rest of this entry »

With over half of the 2026 season in the books, it’s a good a time to update OOPSY’s Top 100 prospects list, this time with a fantasy spin.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy baseball is a stats game, both in terms of scoring (you are literally trying to maximize certain stats) and in terms of building a roster (you use stats to figure out who to roster). But if you play in daily lineups leagues, almost all of the stats we look at are presented in the wrong format for your purposes, particularly for hitters.

When you check out Michael Conforto’s player page, you will see he has 8 HR and a .243 average in 160 PA, which puts him on a 30-HR pace for a full season. You’ll also see him at 3.44 P/G in Ottoneu points leagues. But if you have been moving him in and out of your lineup based on when he does/doesn’t start, and you look at what he has given your team, you’ll see something more like 5 HR and a .223 average, with 4.06 P/G for Ottoneu points leagues. Why has Conforto been better for your team in points leagues (though, to be fair, still not good) and worse in roto?

His starter/substitute splits.

Read the rest of this entry »

Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

Read the rest of this entry »