Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images
Angels
• Vaughn Grissom (.264/.353/.431, 2 HR, 0 SB) started five straight games, hitting in the top half of the lineup, and playing at first, second, and third base. Read the rest of this entry »
Among the top 100 hitters on the Fantasy Player Rater, several hitters are highly touted rookies or players who entered the season rookie-eligible. We’ll examine five rookie hitters. The goal is to provide redraft, keeper, and dynasty thoughts on these rookie-eligible hitters to figure out whether fantasy managers should consider holding, selling high, or buying in various formats. Though keeper and dynasty formats can have different rules and scoring, we’ll do our best to consider these differences.
Big Willie Style!
Will Smith earned his first career start as a leadoff hitter and got jiggy with it right off the bat.
On the Agenda:
Just like dad!
On the Agenda:
Back on April 14, I introduced my process of researching upcoming matchups and schedule outliers in three- to four-week windows to help identify waiver-wire and trade targets. The basic premise of this theory is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into short-term timeframes. We do not know who will get hurt and whether a specific team would be a good or bad matchup for a hitter or pitcher two months from now. We know that the New York Mets have been great to stream pitchers against, as have the Houston Astros for hitters. If Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Josh Hader are all healthy and playing well in mid-July, the Mets offense and the Astros pitching would be better.
My long-time fantasy baseball modus ponens has been this:
Below you’ll find all the latest in significant playing time projection changes for position players since Cinco De Mayo. Headlining the list is a bunch of Astros increases to balance out the crushing loss of Carlos Correa, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing ankle surgery.
| Name | Team | Positions | % of Remaining PT, 5/5 | % of Remaining PT, 5/12 | PT Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Waldschmidt | ARI | CF, LF | 15% | 60% | 45% | Welcome to the big leagues! |
| Daniel Susac | SFG | C | 19% | 46% | 27% | Bailey trade creates playing time when back from injury |
| Jesus Rodriguez | SFG | C, DH, LF, 2B | 20% | 45% | 25% | Bailey trade opens PT for him, too |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | DH, LF, CF | 3% | 27% | 24% | Playing every day against RHP until Giancarlo Stanton or Jasson Domínguez is back |
| Henry Bolte | ATH | CF, RF | 5% | 28% | 23% | Welcome to the big leagues! |
| Casey Schmitt | SFG | 2B, 1B, DH, 3B, SS, LF | 51% | 67% | 16% | Has been the Giants’ best hitter, plus he’s versatile |
| Harrison Bader | SFG | CF | 60% | 75% | 15% | Back from the IL |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | SS | 76% | 90% | 14% | Back from the IL |
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | 2B, 3B, LF, SS | 40% | 53% | 13% | Continues to earn more playing time, including in LF |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | 3B, DH, 1B, 2B | 81% | 94% | 13% | Carlos Correa injury means fewer days off |
| Zach Dezenzo | HOU | RF, LF | 2% | 15% | 13% | Carlos Correa injury = more PT |
| Braden Shewmake | HOU | SS, 2B | 6% | 18% | 12% | Carlos Correa injury = more PT |
| JJ Bleday | CIN | RF, LF, CF | 41% | 53% | 12% | Has become a key cog in the lineup since recall |
| Justin Foscue | TEX | 2B, 1B | 4% | 16% | 12% | Struggles for Jake Burger et al. means he’s playing more |
| Christian Vázquez | HOU | C | 34% | 46% | 12% | Díaz injury has him as the starting C |
| Zack Gelof | ATH | 2B, CF, 3B, RF, DH | 40% | 51% | 11% | Versatility has him playing often |
| Sung-Mun Song 송성문 | SDP | 2B, 3B, SS, 1B, LF | 32% | 43% | 11% | Filling in for Jake Cronenworth (concussion symptoms) |
| Jeremy Peña | HOU | SS | 71% | 81% | 10% | Nearing return from IL |
| Tyrone Taylor | NYM | CF, RF, LF | 43% | 33% | -10% | A.J. Ewing recall muddies playing time |
| Luis Robert Jr. | NYM | CF, DH | 71% | 61% | -10% | Downward adjustment with continued uncertainty around timetable |
| Jake Cronenworth | SDP | 2B, SS, 1B, 3B | 83% | 72% | -11% | Concussion symptoms, on 7-day IL |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | LF, DH, CF | 44% | 33% | -11% | AC joint sprain in shoulder |
| Drew Gilbert | SFG | CF, RF, LF | 50% | 39% | -11% | Harrison Bader return cuts into playing time |
| Alex Freeland | LAD | 2B, 3B, SS | 22% | 10% | -12% | Optioned to minors with Mookie Betts back |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | DH, RF, LF | 69% | 55% | -14% | Sprained shoulder AC joint |
| Josh Smith | TEX | 2B, SS, 1B, 3B | 72% | 57% | -15% | Strained glute |
| Graham Pauley | MIA | 3B, DH, 1B, 2B | 41% | 26% | -15% | Optioned to minors |
| Anthony Volpe | NYY | SS | 60% | 44% | -16% | Activated from IL and optioned to minors |
| Yainer Diaz | HOU | C, DH | 67% | 46% | -21% | Strained oblique |
| Bo Naylor | CLE | C | 60% | 12% | -48% | Optioned to minors with Patrick Bailey acquired |
| Carlos Correa | HOU | 3B, SS | 82% | 0% | -82% | Season-ending ankle surgery |
In my recent articles, I’ve mentioned hitter flyball pull% a lot. It’s a metric I rarely see discussed, but hugely important when evaluating a hitter’s HR/FB rate potential. It’s pretty clear why:
| FB Direction | HR/FB |
|---|---|
| Pull | 30.7% |
| Center | 7.8% |
| Oppo | 3.7% |
If you want to be a home run hitter, you should pull your flies. It’s as simple as that.
Last Monday, I discussed Fernando Tatis Jr.’s odd season and the possibility that his missing power output is related to a stance change that hasn’t had the intended effect. I noted the natural next question at the end: what other players have made stance changes and what are we seeing from them? We’ll dig into that today.
With more than a quarter of the season in the books, buy low and sell high time is in full swing. Between X posts, website articles, and podcasts, everyone is dropping names of players off to cold or hot starts that are candidates to be involved in a trade to extract maximum value. Unfortunately, it’s far easier said than done, particularly if you’re in a competitive league (like one filled with FanGraphs and RotoGraphs readers, of course!). So while it’s easy to tell your readers to buy Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Shohei Ohtani, actually executing on such recommendations ain’t.
Pablo Robles-Imagn Images
Angels
• Vaughn Grissom (.264/.349/.396, 1 HR, 0 SB) started in four of the last five games at second base. Accumulator. Read the rest of this entry »
