11 Veteran Hitter Busts — Who Rebounds?

One of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball is drafting a bust, especially when no one saw it coming. Baseball players are human and sometimes simply have disappointing seasons. It happens. It stinks when you’ve rostered such a player and they help sink your chances at finishing in the money. So let’s discuss 11 veteran hitters who have performed wildly below expectations so far. Will any of them rebound and produce a second half we expected from them to begin with?

Gunnar Henderson

After a major fantasy breakout in 2024, Henderson has disappointed his fantasy owners. He hasn’t been bad, of course, but most likely failed to deliver at least a breakeven value for those that drafted him. This year, even though he has already recorded the same number of homers as last year, he’s been a bust. The disappointment is driven by two stats — seven steals and a .219 batting average.

While he swiped just 10 bags during his first full season in 2023, he stole 21 bases in 2024 and 30 last year. So at the very least, we would have expected 20+ steals this year. Some of the low steal total is due to the tiny .288 OBP, which is significantly below his last two seasons. Another piece of it is that he’s already been caught four times, only one less than all of last year, and the same number as in 2024, when he went 21 for 25.

The low OBP is almost entirely due to a career worst .250 BABIP. He has recorded his worst LD% and highest FB% so far, both ingredients for a lower BABIP. Sure enough, his xwOBA is barely higher than his .299 actual mark, so this hasn’t been a case of poor fortune.

I would have to imagine his LD% improves, bringing both his BABIP and OBP higher. I also think there’s some additional HR/FB rate upside as his FB Pull% has skyrocketed and should more than offset a dip in BatSpd. I think his 2024 unfairly inflated expectations, but I still believe a significantly better second half is in store making him a good target if he’s on a frustrated owner’s team. Remember he’s still just 25 years old.

Cal Raleigh

I’m going to be annoyed at myself all season on the 12/13 turn in the Tout Wars Champions league, as I was pretty confident he would fail to earn his draft day cost, but drafted him anyway given my strategy. Heck, the projections already accounted for significant regression and no one expected this amount of it.

Sure, he’s been injured, but he was awful before hitting the IL. His strikeout rate is above 30% for the first time since his 2021 debut. His LD% is at a career low, combined with a career high FB%, which has decimated his BABIP, while doing nothing for his home run total because his HR/FB rate is shockingly sitting in single digits. His HardHit% has plunged to below league average, he has yet to hit a ball 110+ MPH (his maxEV each season has been over 113 every year), and his Barrel% is nearly half his mark last year. Like Henderson, it hasn’t even been bad luck as even his xwOBA is just .287!

He’s still pulling his flies nearly as often as last year and above his career average, but the Hard% on his flies is down from 41.8% last year and 36.6% career to just 28%. What has happened?! He’s only 29 years old, so it’s not like we have to consider aging effects here. I honestly don’t know what to expect the rest of the season. You have to assume his power will return, even though nothing under the hood suggests it will.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult trading for a catcher because odds are you’ll have to include the catcher you’re replacing and that catcher might be perceived as too much of a downgrade. If your team is struggling in the power categories, he might still be worth looking at as a Hail Mary in the hopes he suddenly gets hot. Few possess his home run upside and if you’re already doing poorly, you need to take risks to make up ground. But as an owner, I’m not holding my breath.

Francisco Lindor

To be fair, Lindor has dealt with multiple injuries this season, including surgery to repair his hamate bone in mid-February. Hamate bone injuries typically lead to disappointing power, so it’s not too shocking that he has posted a career worst 9.1% HR/FB rate and the second lowest ISO of his career. However, his HardHit% is at a career high, his maxEV is down slightly, but not alarmingly so, and his Barrel% is also down slightly, but actually just above his career mark. He is also pulling his flies at a career best clip, while his flyball Hard% is right at his career average. Also, his BatSpd is actually up at its highest since we started tracking it!

So is his power actually down or is it more bad luck on the results front? When you also see the .222 BABIP, you begin to think maybe it really is just bad luck. Sure enough, his .338 xwOBA is much more in line with his history and far above his .285 actual mark. All the metrics make me believe he’s an ideal buy low target, until…I see the mere two steals. He has stolen 31, 29, and 31 bases his past three seasons, so seeing only two through 179 PAs is crazy! There’s no way to predict if he’ll get back to stealing bases, but his willingness to swipe a bag makes a massive difference in his rest of season fantasy value. Since he has only attempted three steals so far, the prudent thing is to expect only a marginal improvement, if any, at a pace that still pales in comparison to previous years. He might still be a buy low, but definitely not at the same level as if he was on his normal 30-steal pace.

Austin Riley

Okay seriously, what has happened to Riley? After posting wOBA marks of at least .363 from 2021-2023 with 33+ homers each season, he has dealt with injury and seen his wOBA slide precipitously each year. You would have thought he bottomed out last year at .318, but the slide has continued and he’s at just .284 right now. Like the first two names, his xwOBA suggests bad luck hasn’t been involved at all. That’s nuts.

Aside from a career low BABIP, it’s all about the power here, so let’s focus on that. His HR/FB rate has declined for a fourth straight season after peaking at 21.8% and is now sitting in single digits for the first time. His HardHit% is at a career worst (but still above league average), as is his maxEV (also still above league average), and Barrel% (still in double digits though), while his BatSpd is in line with his history.

In addition to not hitting the ball as hard as usual, his FB Pull% is at a career low in the high teens, well below league average, and his Hard% on those flies is at a career low. None of this bodes well, but I still would love to understand what has happened to the 29-year-old. Where did his power go?! I feel like each season I’ve wanted to own Riley figuring he would be priced cheaper after a disappointing season and I would get all the upside for free. Luckily, I haven’t been able to roster him as he has gone for surprisingly more than I expected, but if his season doesn’t turn around, I’m going to have yet another opportunity to buy low next year! It can’t get any worse than this, right?

For now, it’s really hard to buy here, as you’re actually hoping for a return to 2021-2023 form, but if he merely rebounds to 2024-2025 form, that’s not a significant enough improvement to bother trading for.

Salvador Perez

I had high hopes for the ageless wonder after Kauffman Stadium became more home run friendly over the offseason, but Perez seemingly didn’t get the memo. At age 36, has father time finally caught up?

Like the others, he’s sporting a sub-.300 xwOBA, so nearly all of his disappointing performance has been deserved. Yes, his BABIP is at a career low, but with the third lowest HP to 1B speed in all of baseball, it might not rebound much.

His 10.2% HR/FB rate is his lowest since 2014, as his HardHit% has dropped to its lowest since 2017, and Barrel% his second lowest since 2016. His BatSpd is also down 1.2 MPH from last year. Finally, his FB Pull% is at the second lowest since a partial 20212 season, while his Hard% on flies is at its lowest since 2016. So lots of declining trends explains the down season. His poor performance has gotten him dropped to sixth in the Royals lineup, which is quite the negative for all his counting stats, particularly his runs scored, which was always low. I’m not buying here.

Jose Altuve

Altuve is an aging veteran name I avoided after he posted his lowest xwOBA in a full season since 2015. Sure, he has routinely overperformed his xwOBA, but his skills have eroded, which is meaningful given his age. This year, his BABIP sits at the lowest of his career, failing to rebound from last year’s down mark, while his strikeout rate has jumped above 20% for the first time.

The combination of a drop in BABIP and spike in strikeout rate has lowered his batting average to a non-Altuve-esque .231, a mark no one would have ever expected from him. The home run power has been fine, but he’s swiped just two bases. The steals disappeared last year, but he’s not even on a double digit pace.

Does his name still command a premium in trade talks or are his owners willing to admit what he is now? More than likely, I wouldn’t bother trying to trade for him, as the steals are unlikely to come, and while his batting average will likely improve, I would worry about his rest of season homer total, especially considering his lowest FB% since 2018.

Christian Yelich

Yelich has missed time to injury, reducing his counting stats, but his lowest career batting average and the lowest HR/FB rate since 2021 has hampered his value as well. Excluding the short 2020 season, this is the highest strikeout rate he’s recorded, driven by a career worst SwStr%. It’s led to the low batting average, despite the .337 BABIP. He continues to kill worms, proving yet again that his 2019 FB% surge into the mid-30% range was a complete fluke. His HardHit% is at a career low, as is his maxEV, while his Barrel% is at its lowest since 2017. His BatSpd is right in range, as it has consistently stood between 73.1 and 73.6 MPH.

With both his power down and strikeouts up, it’s hard to believe in a rebound. The strikeouts might be a side effect of aging, while his low FB% makes it hard for him to be a strong home run contributor without a 20%+ HR/FB rate.

Unlike the other names, Yelich’s xwOBA is actually below his actual mark. I probably wouldn’t be buying here.

Mookie Betts

Betts has also missed time to injury, but has been a bust when on the field. With rather stable underlying skills and a higher HR/FB rate than the last two seasons, though still well below his peak years before that, it’s all come down to a career worst BABIP and just one steal.

To be honest, I didn’t realize how many seasons Betts hasn’t been a big stolen base threat for. As long ago as 2021 he stole just 10 bases, so I still have memories of 2016-2018 when he was a 25-30 steal threat. So perhaps just the one steal isn’t as crushing to his value as expected, but he’s still obviously well off the pace of the projections, and it does cut into his value.

Then of course the career worst BABIP has crushed his batting average, which sits at a career worst .232. His batted ball profile isn’t that much different than usual, but with a heavy flyball tendency and surge in IFFB%, it makes sense he’s struggling to convert balls in play into hits.

His xwOBA is right in line with last year, so this mostly seems like bad luck. But even if so, he just hasn’t been the same player as he used to be, and the lack of steals completely eliminates a category he used to contribute in.

I would buy here, but cautiously, as his name still carries value and you should ensure you’re not paying for anything he has done prior to 2025.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I guess if I keep screaming that Guerrero is an ideal buy low, ready to enjoy a power rebound, it has to eventually happen, right? It’s all about the power outage here as the rest of his metrics are in line.

His HR/FB rate sits at an impossibly low 6.5%, while his ISO looks like a typo at just .096. His HardHit% is at its lowest since his 2019 rookie campaign, but still sits well above league average. His maxEV is perfectly fine for him and still a near elite 116 MPH. His BatSpd is stable. Besides the drop in HardHit%, his Barrel% has been nearly cut in half and sits at a career low…below the league average. Otto Lopez sports a Barrel% just above Guerrero’s! His FB Pull% is right in line with his career average, but his Hard% on his fly balls are at the lowest of his career.

So to sum it all up, he’s hitting his balls less hard than normal and there’s an even bigger decline in how hard he’s hitting his flies, in particular. Furthermore, he’s not hitting his balls as optimally for power (Barrel% down). The question then becomes — WHY? He’s 27 years old, so should be right in his prime. To think he would suffer such a precipitous decline in power is baffling.

I have always been a fan of his skill set, though would like to see more flyballs, and he has continually reduced his strikeout rate. So he remains a buy target, but like Raleigh, he is more of a close your eyes and cross your fingers, hoping he rediscovers his past form, because nothing right now suggests imminent rebound (though the xwOBA is marginally higher than his actual mark).

Eugenio Suárez

Another hitter coming off a surprisingly massive season who has disappointed, Suárez is yet another who has missed time to injury, but wasn’t hitting well before that. Three straight games with a home run recently has pushed up his HR/FB rate, so now it’s back to an expected range. However, a 36% strikeout rate, easily a career high, has still hampered his fantasy value. His SwStr% is at a career worst, but also just 0.1% higher than last year, so I feel like the strikeout rate will come down even without a SwStr% improvement.

What’s really fascinating here is that although his power looks fine right now, his HardHit% and Barrel% are actually at their worst since 2017, while his BatSpd is down marginally, after remaining in a tight range three straight seasons. So I’m actually a little skeptical of his power output.

There are lots of red flags here, and since he has been hot recently to increase his price, he’s probably not worst pursuing.

Kyle Tucker

Wow, I did not see a Tucker bust season coming. He was seemingly put in the perfect situation with a top supporting cast and a home park that inflates left-handed home runs. Instead, he’s running the lowest wOBA, ISO, and HR/FB rate of his career. To make matters worse, he’s swiped just six bases.

To start, his strikeout rate has spiked to a career worst, driven by his first double digit SwStr% (ignoring his first three small sample seasons). His FB% is at a career worst, though still above league average, which reduces his home run upside, but should be better for his BABIP. Sure enough, his BABIP is at its highest since 2021, but with a single digit HR/FB rate, his home run total is being bitten by both that low mark and the drop in FB%.

His HardHit% is below his career average, but barely below last year, and really not too far below the career mark. His maxEV has never been a strong suit and it’s marginally below his last two years. With two and a half months left, that’s not a concern. What is a concern is the microscopic 5.8% Barrel%, after never finishing below 10.1% in a full season. His BatSpd is also its lowest since we track, but not by such a significant amount to ring the alarm bells.

He’s still pulling his flies close to his career mark, but like many of the others, the Hard% on his fly balls is well down and at a career low. Why? How has he suddenly lost so much power on his fly balls?

He has swiped six bases in six attempts, and while a lower OBP than expected helps explain the disappointing steals total, his Steal Attempt% is less than half of last year’s mark and easily a career worst. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether he picks up the running game pace.

Batting sixth now is a problem, and it might take an extended hot streak to move him back up. His .335 xwOBA is marginally higher than his actual mark, but well below where he’s sat in all of his full seasons. Simply from an “I can’t believe he’s such a bust” perspective, he’s a buy low, but nothing really looks great here.