What Bat Speed Says About Young Hitters: Part 2

Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

What separates them is what happens after contact. The hitters worth finding are the ones who hit the ball hard and swing at the right pitches, and both parts matter. Plenty of young hitters in this group do one and not the other, and they produce nothing for it.

Owen Caissie | Miami Marlins

Owen Caissie has made steady progress throughout 2026, as shown by his rolling wOBA chart. This is the kind of progression ball clubs love to see from young hitters. While the initial break-in period can be a struggle, they show enough to make incremental improvements and adjust as the season progresses.

Caissie stands out from the under-25 hitter set, outside the household names, for myriad reasons. He stands out initially because he sits between PCA and Esmerlyn Valdez on the bat speed axis. What separates him slightly is the shorter swing, at 7.1 feet against a 7.4 for everyone else. He sits in the 100th percentile with an LA sweet-spot at 47%, and his fast swing rate of 53% means he’s geared up on over half of his pitches.

Caissie puts 44.1% of his contact in the air against a 37.4% median for the group, and his 36.2% ground-ball rate sits in the 15th percentile, so almost nothing gets beaten into the dirt. His GB/FB ratio of 0.82 is well clear of the average, and his average launch angle of 16.7 degrees is four and a half degrees above the pool. He hits the ball hard, and he gets it off the ground. This is a huge plus, as it is something a lot of young hitters can struggle with against major league pitching, and most of the hitters in this group manage one or the other. Particularly at the bottom of the zone, he gets to pitches quickly and powerfully through these mechanics, as we can see below.

Now it’s time to insert the Jonah Hill Moneyball meme, his only defect… he has the worst strikeout rate in the league, for hitters who have had at least 200 plate appearances. Now this is being hyperbolic, and it’s not necessarily the strikeouts in isolation, but rather he is getting beat in the zone, particularly at the top rail. So his problem is bat to ball rather than an approach problem. Obviously, when he does make contact, the results give him an incredibly high ceiling. What’s interesting is his expected stats reflect this clearly, his xBA is .216, very poor, xSLG at .429 is very respectable; and xwOBA at .309, but steadily improving. I think there is enough there to warrant strong consideration for deeper leagues and dynasty formats.

Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds

While saying Sal Stewart sits on the other end of this chart wouldn’t quite be fair, he certainly is a long way from the Junior Camineros and Jordan Walkers of the world. He finds himself in the middle of the pack, his bat speed sitting at 72.50 mph, remarkably average. Yet he barrels the ball at an 88th-percentile clip.

This has translated into real success in his rookie season, a 116 wRC+ and a .351 xwOBA up to the All-Star break, and with 414 plate appearances, this is one of the largest samples in the group. As with most young hitters, he hits more ground balls than he would like, 45% of the time, and he can get beaten in the zone, as we can see with his 82.7% Z-contact. But when he gets the ball in the air, he does damage, with a HR/FB rate in the 80th percentile of this group and a 218 ISO in the 83rd. Bat speed is a great foundation for young hitters. Stewart is the proof that you can get to the same place without it.

Slow and Steady

Using Sal Stewart as a bit of a bridge, it’s worth looking at how those hitters have had success without possessing elite bat speed. Stewart sits right on the 72.50 mph midpoint. If we look at the pool of players below, we can break down how they fare for those with a wRC+ above 100 and those below it.

What stands out right away is the chase rate. The hitters producing at a 100 wRC+ or better chase at 28.4% against 34.3% for the group below them, the widest gap on the board, so they are picking better pitches to attack in the first place. The other half of it is what they do with those pitches. They hit the ball hard 38.9% of the time against 35.1%, and that naturally leads to a higher ISO and a higher ceiling for power. Limiting strikeouts helps too, 19.2% against 22.6%, though it is the smallest of the three gaps.

The interesting observation is on the batted-ball side, where almost nothing separates them. The ground-ball rates are nearly identical, 42.0% against 44.0%, and the same is true of fly balls and launch angle. But the difference lies entirely in the approach at the plate and how hard they are able to hit pitches.

This is what separates the likes of Kevin McGonigle, who chases at a pool-low 21.2%, and JJ Wetherholt, who hits the ball hard 45.3% of the time, from Ezequiel Tovar and Justin Crawford, who do neither, and it gives us a good read of who might perform well in the future.

So what names are currently sitting in the sub-100 group that could break out from a fantasy perspective with a more productive second half?

Colt Keith is the one name from the group below who looks the part. He hits the ball hard 42.3% of the time and chases at just 26.7%, both better than the average of the hitters clearing a 100 wRC+, and yet he sits at 89 with a .324 xwOBA that suggests he has been better than the results show.

With Keith close to turning 25, Braden Montgomery is the younger version of the same bet. His 40.7% hard-hit rate already clears the average of the group above him, and at 23 with only 116 plate appearances, there is room for the chase rate, currently 30.7%, to come down as he sees more major league pitching. His barrel rate is 3.7%, well below the producing group’s 6.3%, so he will have to find the barrel more consistently if he is to make the jump.

Of course, if you can swing the bat close to 80 mph, you are putting yourself in a very good position to have success. The hitters with bat speed above the midpoint of this group are producing at a 100 wRC+ or better 48% of the time, against 30% for those below it, so the faster swing does buy you something. But as proven in this piece, it is not the be-all and end-all. Even with a sub-75 mph swing, quality contact, discipline at the plate, and applying power when you make contact can still put young hitters in great stead.