Archive for Hitters

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 14, 2026

Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

We’ve reached the not-actually-halfway-but-people-call-it-that-because-of-the-All-Star-Break point of the season! Here are notable projected position player playing time changes for the last two weeks as we enter the second “half” on Thursday.

Significant Playing Time Changes, Hitters, 6/30 to 7/14
Name Team Position Old PT % New PT % PT Change Old PA New PA PA Change Reason
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH 2B, SS, 3B 14% 58% 44% 40 165 125 Litany of injuries open more playing time, plus he’s hitting well
Ryan Jeffers MIN C, DH 34% 73% 39% 97 208 111 Back from the IL
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT RF, DH, LF 27% 65% 38% 77 185 108 The Magician is a key cog in the lineup now
LaMonte Wade Jr. HOU LF, RF, 1B 14% 46% 32% 40 131 91 Returned from IL and starting every day against RHP
Luis Lara MIL RF, CF 3% 35% 32% 9 100 91 Called up to the majors and deserves to play semi-regularly, but OF is crowded
Tim Tawa ARI 1B, 2B, CF, LF 8% 39% 31% 23 111 88 Getting a crack at 1B with Smith DFA’d
Munetaka Murakami CHW 1B, DH 65% 91% 26% 185 260 74 Back from the IL
Jim Jarvis ATL SS, 3B, 2B 3% 28% 25% 9 80 71 Starting SS with Kim injured
Ryan Waldschmidt ARI CF, LF 23% 48% 25% 66 137 71 With Tawa getting 1B time, more OF time open
Ke’Bryan Hayes CIN 3B 25% 48% 23% 71 137 66 Back from the IL
Alan Roden MIN RF, LF, DH 25% 47% 22% 71 134 63 Called up to replace Byron Buxton on the roster
Jonah Heim ATH C, DH, 1B 30% 50% 20% 86 143 57 Will do some filling in at 1B with Kurtz out
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL RF, DH 67% 87% 20% 191 248 57 Nearing IL return
Kahlil Watson CLE LF, RF, CF, DH 34% 54% 20% 97 154 57 Ingle’s option makes him a surefire regular for now
Colby Thomas ATH RF, LF, CF 25% 45% 20% 71 128 57 Gelof injury makes him a more regular OF
Victor Caratini MIN C, DH, 1B 72% 52% -20% 205 148 -57 Jeffers return cuts into C time
Samad Taylor SDP LF, CF, RF, 2B 59% 39% -20% 168 111 -57 Oblique strain, he hopes mild
Nick Kurtz ATH 1B 94% 72% -22% 268 205 -63 Thumb sprain, timeline unclear but hopefully won’t be too long
Mark Vientos NYM 1B, DH, 3B 54% 30% -24% 154 86 -68 Fractured hand
Joey Loperfido HOU LF, CF, RF 52% 27% -25% 148 77 -71 Optioned to minors
Ha-seong Kim ATL SS 70% 44% -26% 200 125 -74 Finger inflammation; on rehab assignment but it’s unclear how much PT will be available to him when back
Cooper Ingle CLE LF, DH, C 41% 14% -27% 117 40 -77 Optioned to minors
Kameron Misner KCR CF 33% 5% -28% 94 14 -80 Optioned to minors
Matt Chapman SFG 3B 95% 66% -29% 271 188 -83 Strained abdominal muscle
Max Muncy ATH 3B, SS, 2B 65% 16% -49% 185 46 -140 Optioned to minors
Pavin Smith ARI 1B, DH, RF 52% 1% -51% 148 3 -145 DFA’d
Konnor Griffin PIT SS, DH 89% 33% -56% 254 94 -160 Finger injury will keep him out ~2 months

Poll 2026: Which Group of Batters Performs Better?

Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing batter wOBA to xwOBA and pitting the xwOBA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.

We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect (for example, it fails to account for horizontal angle, which certainly impacts results). Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

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Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Home Run Derby?

Credit: Gerry Angus-Imagn Images

Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman know better than most that baseball is a haunted sport. Downright spooky even. Curses range from the Bambino to the Billy Goat to Seattle-area Etsy witches, baseball fans subscribe to and are victims of decades long vexing hexes.

And by baseball standards, the Home Run Derby Curse is akin to the curse of being on the cover of MLB the Show. FanGraphs writers have taken hacks at diminishing this curse over the years, but the popular consciousness still loves to tout it. Their theory is fairly straight forward, relying on the idea that derby participants change their swing to try and win the derby, and can’t find their game swing again in the second half, leading to a slump.

In this article, I’ll seek to answer two questions:

In recent years, has there been a fall off between halves for derby participants?

And is there a way to try and predict who will fall off to help us humble fantasy managers sell high?

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Lineup Analysis (7/10/26)


Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article. Additionally, I’ve explained why I like to focus on OPS to evaluate hitters in this article.

American League

Angels

• Jorge Soler might not DH as often with Mike Trout off the IL. Trout might also cut into Jose Siri’s playing time.

• Vaughn Grissom (vs LHP) and Nolan Schanuel (vs RHP) might be in a first base platoon. Read the rest of this entry »


Simplified Analysis: OPS and xFIP


Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.

Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.

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What Bat Speed Says About Young Hitters

Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Right now, the Major League level seems about as full of young talent as it ever has been. High-profile prospects are more prepared than ever to make the leap, skipping past the slow grind of the minor leagues to make an immediate impact at the big-league level. This season, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt have proven it: the former made the All-Star roster, and the latter absolutely should have been included.

Of course, bat speed is not a guarantee of success. The two examples I gave, McGonigle and Wetherholt, have both had great success without elite bat speed, sitting right around league average in the metric. But as indicators go, it can be a useful one. As we can see from the top end of this chart, bat speed can give you a strong platform to build on.

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Roto Riteup: July 10, 2026

Did not have Caleb Durbin, Power Monster, on my bingo card.

On the Agenda: 

  1. Closer Chaos
  2. Quick Hits
  3. Various News and Notes
  4. Streaming Pitchers

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Stream the Summer’s Hottest Platoons this Weekend

Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

In fantasy baseball, it’s sometimes safest to avoid platoon hitters. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyways. And in many cases, that’s the right advice. 

During drafts, hitters tagged with platoon risk, like Jarren Duran and Oneil Cruz, are often best avoided, as their upside is severely capped. In shallower leagues, when chasing upside and  racking up counting stats is particularly important, they should be especially eschewed. 

But there are formats and circumstances when platoon bats are worthwhile.

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Roto Riteup: July 9, 2026

Daullton Varsho is incredible!

This one preserved the no-hitter, but then it became a hitter.

On the Agenda: 

  1. Closer Chaos
  2. Quick Hits
  3. Various News and Notes
  4. Streaming Pitchers

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Second Half Expectations from First-Round Busts

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Every baseball and fantasy season brings wonderful surprises and massive disappointments. Among the top hitters in our Fantasy Player Rater are two Nationals (James Wood, CJ Abrams), post-200 ADP breakouts Otto Lopez and Jordan Walker, and Liam Hicks, a catcher added off FAAB and waivers in April. We know that it takes more than just our first-round selection to win our leagues, and we strive to avoid traps and busts, but it’s impossible to know who those are ahead of time. That’s why we play the game. We can break down first-rounders into three groups: those who return first-round value ($25+), those who don’t return it, but don’t sink our squad ($15-$24), and those who outright destroy us. Over the last decade, only 35-45% annually return first-round value or come close to it. Last season was a positive outlier in this regard. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were the top producers ($40+). Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Bobby Witt Jr., Fernando Tatis, and Corbin Carroll easily returned first-round value. Elly De La Cruz was on the bubble ($24.8, 16th hitter per the 12-team Player Rater) and technically counts as a hit. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a Round 2 ADP in 12-team leagues and was a borderline first-rounder in 15s. He, too, earned $24 and change. We also had the unique occurrence of the first three pitchers off the board — Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Garrett Crochet — all ending the season as the top three fantasy pitchers.

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