FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 18

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 17 Overview

Hitters

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves blew up over the weekend, scoring 29 runs each. Nationals hitters mostly spread their production across the board, enjoying the visit to Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park. Short-side platoon first baseman Andrés Chaparro exploded with a 2-HR, 8-RBI game and is a viable streamer in Week 18 as the Nats will play three games at Coors Field and face up to four left-handed starters. Ironically, James Wood had a rough weekend, managing just one hit and one walk in 15 plate appearances. The Braves offense was fueled by Drake Baldwin and Austin Riley, both of whom hit two home runs each on Sunday against the Rangers. Baldwin had five hits on Sunday and led all hitters with 10 total hits.

The Boston Red Sox averaged seven runs per game in their four-game set with the Rays. Wilyer Abreu led all Major League hitters with four dingers. The Padres scored 26 runs in Kansas City, led by Ty France (5-12, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (6-12, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB). Not surprisingly, Junior Caminero is the top 5×5 standard roto producer over the last 30 days. The next two might surprise you — Jake McCarthy and Esmerlyn Valdez. McCarthy leads the Majors in RBI (28) over the last 30 days. Valdez has been the ultimate FAAB gem, batting .372 with 10 HR and 27 RBI over this span.

Pitchers

There were no two-start pitchers last week since we had the All-Star break. The standout performances belonged to Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 2 BB – 7 K), Nolan McLean (6t IP – 2 H – 0 ER – 2 BB – 10 K), Tarik Skubal (7 IP – 5 H – 0 ER – 0 BB – 9 K) and in-season waiver wire acquisition, Peter Lambert (6 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 3 BB – 10 K). Four of the top six starting pitchers in standard roto over the last month are free agent/waiver wire pick-ups. Boston rookie Jake Bennett has been the best ($36.4 on the Fantasy Player Rater), followed by another southpaw, Foster Griffin ($31.7). Two AL Central arms join Jesús Luzardo (3rd) and Sonny Gray (5th) among the top six — Tigers’ Troy Melton (29.1 IP – 36 K – 0.92 ERA – 0.75 WHIP) and White Sox’ Sean Burke (31.1 – 39 – 1.44 – 0.89). Burke is tied with Jacob deGrom with the fourth highest strikeout rate (31.9%) since June 1 behind Zack Wheeler (35.6%), Skubal (34.2%), and Luzardo (32.8%). Rays righty Griffin Jax had a rare rough outing (7 ER in 5 IP vs. BOS) and Zebby Matthews of the Twins had the worst outing of all this weekend — eight earned runs (10 unearned) on nine hits and three walks in just three innings at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Minnesota’s closer Yoendrys Gómez has been quite the pleasant surprise, converting all 12 of his save opportunities and providing some stability at the back-end of the Twins bullpen.

Most Added: NFBC Main Event, NFBC OC, and Fantrax

• Week 18: 11.1
• Week 14: 18.3
• Week 10: 24.1
• Week 6: 25.5

It’s no big revelation seeing transactions reduced by more than 50% from the heyday of May when everyone’s glasses were rose-colored. It’s not full carte blanche, but it is certainly much easier to acquire our Sunday targets after the All-Star break. Let’s start with the Main Event and see who the high-stakes crew were throwing their nickels and dimes at.

A young, charismatic British-American who was a former 12th overall draft pick, and with catcher eligibility? What more could a roto guy or gal want? Opportunity. That’s what we want. It’s something Harry Ford hasn’t received with his former team, nor with his current team, until this past weekend. The Mariners called him up last September for eight measly plate appearances, despite fantastic results in Triple-A (.283/.408/.460, 16 HR, 74 RBI and 7 SB in 97 games), then shipped him to D.C. where Ford could not crack the Opening Day roster as Keibert Ruiz’s backup. Drew Millas hit the IL, which finally opened the door for Ford to make a splash with his big-league club. Ford struggled in Triple-A this year (.223 BA, 4 HR, 22 RBI in 257 PA), but turned a page as he donned his fresh Nationals gear, crushing a three-run bomb in his team debut, and then a double, RBI and a stolen base in his second game. Will Millas force Ford to be optioned when activated? Not if this weekend previews the type of impact Ford can have in this surprisingly stellar offense. It can’t hurt Ford’s trajectory having a trip to Coors Field this week and four starting lefty pitchers in his next six games. Ford batted sixth in both starts against southpaws and will hopefully keep his roto mojo going this week with the extra playing time.

Opinions on Luis Lara’s rest-of-season value seemed split heading into last week, but everything changed when Sal Frelick injured his shoulder, went on the injured list, and opened the door for Lara. His $28 average winning bid in Main Events was the highest among players added in at least 20% of leagues. Lara had the day off on Sunday as Jake Bauers shifted from first base to right field while Andrew Vaughn earned a rare start against a righty. Lara should play five or six games this week and hopefully joins the Production Party this weekend when the Brewers host the Rockies.

Ty France’s big weekend and upcoming seven-game weekend launched his FAAB-tractivity, though there will be some tough matchups ahead, taking on Chris Sale and a trio of Marlins arms. He could keep his tank on high in the early part of the week against Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, and the soon-to-be-activated, Martín Pérez.

The Victor Mesa Jr. add is one I can’t wrap my mind around. The Rays have seven games, but only five against RHPs, and three of them are Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber. Mesa was in the lineup against a lefty over the weekend, but that was likely a one-off. The Griffin Conine love does make some sense, specifically for fantasy managers chasing power. Conine has three dingers in his last four games (7 in 99 PA) and the Marlins should face 5-of-6 RHPs from the Astros and Padres, including #oldfriend Ronel Blanco.

The speculative closer addition that seems to have the most legs is Michael Petersen ($7 AWB) of the Marlins. Fairbanks blew it on Sunday, serving up a three-run walk-off bomb to William Contreras. Fairbanks’ ERA is up to 7.42 and the Marlins can’t afford to keep plugging him into these opportunities. A 32-year-old career minor-leaguer with fewer than 40 innings of experience before this season, Petersen has been Miami’s most consistent bullpen arm, sporting a 2.92 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a 30% K-BB%. Peterson has been appearing in high-leverage situations and should be given the keys to the ninth, at least until the Marlins make a deal for a reliever. Luke Weaver would sure look great in teal.

In my weekly FAAB column at FTN, Zach Thornton and Shane Bieber were listed as my top two 12-team SP targets with a bid range of $10-$23. Both pitchers’ average winning bids were within this range, though Bieber was already rostered in a higher percentage of leagues (74% to Thornton’s 9%). We received the exact type of performance we were hoping for from Bieber on Saturday as he mowed down White Sox hitters over six scoreless innings, and lines up to face the Rays at home this Thursday. Thornton is slated to start in American Family Field in Milwaukee on Tuesday, though his stay in the Mets rotation may be a temporary one with Clay Holmes making rehab starts and expected back in 7-10 days. Thornton could stick around if the Mets deal a starter, as has been rumored. Holmes is on the block and should earn a couple of abbreviated starts before the August 3 trade deadline. His final Minor League rehab start comes this Thursday.

Steven Kwan is a solid deal for an average of $10 in 12-teamers, especially for folks hoping to get a boost in the batting average category. After all, Kwan is an elite contact guy (career 92%) with great plate discipline who was batting .212 through the end of June and has been red hot since the beginning of July (.436/.522/.590, 217 wRC+ in 47 PA). Kwan got back into the driver’s seat on Sunday (leadoff), ready to kick off a nice stretch with seven games this week and a visit to Great American Ball Park in the early part of next week.

Welcome back Luis Robert Jr.! He was activated today and will be ready to mash.

It’s Go Big or Go Home time for A’s corner infielder, Tommy White. Though Nick Kurtz won’t be activated anytime soon, Zack Gelof likely will be. White will have to produce this week to stay up, otherwise he will be demoted when Gelof returns, which could be later this weekend or early next. White’s path to making it back to Sacramento for the seven-game home stint against the Red Sox and Tigers is for fellow rookie Joshua Kuroda-Grauer to go ice cold at the plate or make several costly mistakes at the hot corner.

Tim Tawa was a popular add on all platforms this week, including Fantrax. Tawa had the day off on Sunday and went hitless on Saturday, but in his four previous games, he had three doubles, three homers and eight runs batted in. The Diamondbacks play seven games this week and Tawa should be in the lineup for most of their games. The 27-year-old offers great positional flexibility for fantasy managers, and for the D-Backs as well, covering first base and the outfield, as needed. Tyler Locklear was promoted on Friday and should earn some starts at first base as well, mostly against the lefty starting pitchers.

Drop of the Week

Daniel Palencia and Ryan Helsley were justifiably dropped in many leagues across fantasy platforms this weekend. Palencia has been out with an elbow injury since June 15. Manager Craig Counsell is “hopeful” that he can return around mid-August, which is still several weeks out and there’s no reason to continue bogging down a bench spot on him. Helsley was a more confident drop for us. Thankfully, he doesn’t have structural damage to his UCL, but he was transferred to the 60-day IL on Sunday, which means he won’t be available for activation until the end of August. For now, it’s Jacob Webb and Tyler Wells, with a bit of Trent Thornton and Andrew Kittredge mixed in for the save chances.

Week 18 Predictions

Andrés Chaparro and Harry Ford continue to mash this week. Chaparro will hit three more home runs.

Diamondbacks rookie southpaw Mitch Bratt pitches well in his two starts (vs ATH, at WSN) and becomes one of the most popular deep-league adds of the upcoming weekend.

The Atlanta Braves welcome back Ronald Acuña Jr. and continue to demolish opposing pitchers, scoring 40+ runs this week. Austin Riley stans will finally have a reason to celebrate.

Jacob Misiorowski punches out double-digit batters in each of his starts this week, against the Mets and Rockies.

Detroit Tigers slugger Spencer Torkelson hits three home runs in this three-game series at Wrigley Field. Jameson Taillon will wish he stayed on the IL for one more series.