10 Surprise Hitter Breakouts — Who Keeps It Up?

Yesterday, I discussed 11 hitters who have disappointed their fantasy owners this year. Today, let’s get happier by flipping to the breakouts. These are the players that win you leagues and you’re always hoping to end up with when spending your last auction dollar.

This is far from an exhaustive list. I narrowed it down to names that were either bought for just a buck in my 12-team mixed league, drafted in the reserve round, or not rostered at all coming out of our auction. These are truly the biggest surprises of the season. Let’s dive in and opine on who might keep up their performance and who is due for some serious regression.

I used my league’s CBS actual rank, comparing to projected rank, to cherry pick the breakout. Both ranks can obviously be debated, but it’s a quick way to identify the breakouts and busts.

Ryan O’Hearn (CBS actual rank 55)

Remember when O’Hearn was a bust with the Royals and then suddenly turned his career around after joining the Orioles back in 2023? He’s maintained that level of production ever since and he’s currently on pace for his best fantasy season yet. He’s sporting a career best HR/FB rate, despite Statcast power metrics in line or worse than his career marks, and BatSpd that’s down a mile per hour from last year and 1.6 MPH from 2024. His wOBA is a career best, but xwOBA lower than the last two years and 0.024 points under.

Besides the home run total just one below all of last year, a lot of his value has been driven by his RBI and runs scored pace. The Pirates offense has been far better than expected, leading baseball in wOBA and wRC+, which has already pushed his RBI total to a new career high, one above last year, and a runs scored pace that would represent a career best.

It’s hard to believe the Pirates offense remains at the top and I just don’t think O’Hearn will sustain that career high HR/FB rate. Fewer home runs is going to reduce his RBI and runs scored total the rest of the way. Maybe I’m stubborn, but I would still consider him a low end option in my home league format. I wouldn’t think he’d be that much of an upgrade, if any, on my Josh Bell, for example.

Otto Lopez (10)

If you missed the number in parentheses next to Lopez’s name, go look at it again. It’s not a typo. According to CBS’ calculations, he’s been the 10th most valuable fantasy player this year. Otto Lopez! He enjoyed a sort of mini fantasy breakout last year by going 15/15, but I don’t think anyone saw potential for another level.

Lopez’s breakout has been almost entirely driven by one number — .370. That’s his current BABIP, compared to just .264 last year. That’s a massive spike. It’s raised his batting average from .246 to .335, which in turn has given him more stolen base opportunities, and he has taken advantage of such opportunities. He’s already swiped three more bases than last year, though he’s still two short of 2024 in nearly the same number of plate appearances.

I wonder how he’s been able to manage such a hefty BABIP while recording just a 15.6% LD%. Line drives have by far the highest BABIP, so posting such a below average make should make it difficult to reach a league average BABIP, let alone a near league leading one.

His .338 xwOBA is well below his .375 actual mark and actually barely above last year’s figure. He actually dramatically underperformed his xwOBA last year, so this is quite the turnaround.

It’s pretty clear that Lopez has no business maintaining such an inflated BABIP, but last year’s mark was unlucky so he should continue to be a positive in the batting average category. I think the home run power is real after his FB% jumped over 30%, and he’s a good basestealer, but when his BABIP drops, his opportunities to steal a base will too.

He’s not going to finish as the 10th most valuable fantasy player. Is he a sell high? It obviously depends on what you can get in return, but I’d be more willing to hold him than I would O’Hearn.

Casey Schmitt (44)

Schmitt wasn’t even drafted in my league, and probably wasn’t in the majority of 12-team mixed formats. After showing off middling power and no speed, while recording a low batting average last year, he was not on fantasy radars this season.

So it’s quite a shock to see him ranked 44th among fantasy players so far and a boon to his fantasy owner, particularly because he qualifies at the wasteland known as second base. There are three main drivers of his outburst. One is a reduction in strikeout rate from 23.9% to 19%. That’s not too dramatic, but enough to give him a bump across the board.

Another change’s impact is much more obvious. He has increased his FB% from 42.7% to 50%, which ranks sixth highest among 147 qualified batters. Even without increasing his HR/FB rate by much, he has hit seven more home runs in just 51 more at-bats.

Finally, after failing to steal a single base last year and having swiped just two throughout his short MLB career, he has stolen nine so far, while getting caught just once.

It’s difficult to predict whether he’ll maintain that elevated FB% (odds are against, of course) or if he’ll continue to run at this pace. I think everything else is real and his xwOBA is actually higher than his wOBA. He has also earned himself a prime lineup spot, hitting third nearly every day for about a month now. Second base gets pretty miserable if you also have an MI slot, so I would be unlikely to consider trying to sell high if I were an owner (actually, I do own him in Tout Wars Champions, and there’s literally no reasonable alternative, especially given that I’ve dumped steals!).

Miguel Vargas (19)

The former top prospect is finally making good on his promise! Vargas has reduced his strikeout rate even further after last year’s dramatic improvement, nearly doubled his HR/FB rate, and is already in double digits in steals, after stealing just 13 bases in his entire career before this year.

With a jump in HardHit%, maxEV, and surge in Barrel%, all supported by a massive jump in BatSpd, the power spike looks absolutely for real. That said, his July HR/FB rate sits at just 8.3%, in line with his history, after posting a mark between 15% and 16% in each of the first three months. It could just be random variance and a small sample size, or regression back to his previous self. Only time will tell the answer. The good news is he hasn’t lost any BatSpd in July, so I’d bet that it’s just a random down month so far and the earlier power surge will return at some point.

The White Sox offense is also wayyyyyy better than expected, so he’s on pace to crush his RBI and runs scored totals from last year. I don’t think that’s much of a fluke, but perhaps his pace falls off a bit.

Like I said when discussing Schmitt, it’s impossible to guess how many steals a non-speedster is going to accrue after surprising with his total so far. That number is going to be a factor in determining whether he maintains this level or disappoints the rest of the way. I think the power is for real though, and his xwOBA being significantly higher suggests that he’s worth holding onto as an owner. That doesn’t mean I expect him to finish 19th overall, of course, but you aren’t going to be able to trade him for 19th best value anyway.

Dillon Dingler (67)

It’s only fair that a guy with the last name of Dingler is going to have a home run breakout. It’s been all about the power spike here, as he’s simultaneously increased his HR/FB rate from 11.1% to 16.5%, while also enjoyed a FB% surge from 35.9% to 44.6%. So more flyballs, and more flyballs leaving the park, is a recipe for a home run breakout.

His HardHit% and maxEV are almost identical to last year, but his Barrel% has jumped two percentage points into double digits. He has also increased his FB Pull% from a lowly 18.8% to around league average at 27%. That will certainly boost the rate at which his flies fall for homers.

It’s always tough with catchers because you never know if they are going to wear down as the season progresses. Nothing in Dingler’s profile screams fluke and like Vargas, his xwOBA is above his actual mark. His strong hitting has also gotten him moved up in the lineup to the top third, after opening the season batting seventh.

If your team is struggling, but Dingler is one of your few bright spots, how about a fun challenge trade, offering him for…Cal Raleigh?

Curtis Mead (84)

Where on Earth did this come from?! Mead didn’t even open the season as a regular, but eventually hit his way into an everyday spot. Incredibly, he entered this season with just a 3.6% HR/FB rate over 445 career AB, but has posted a 17.9% mark this year. It’s not often you see improvement like that.

His HardHit% has gone from the mid-30% range to 42.5% and his Barrel% has rocketed from the mid-4% range to 11.3%. All this while his BatSpd is down! He has also upped his FB Pull% from 21.9% heading into the season to an above average 32.6% this year.

Lastly, he has reduced his strikeout rate, which hasn’t really helped his batting average since his BABIP has also declined, but given him more balls in play that could leave the park. The former top prospect had shown far more power in the minors than he did during his cups of coffee in the Majors before this year, but not exactly this level of power. Still, he was obviously better than he had been in the Majors and it’s pretty clear that everything suddenly cleared for the 25-year-old.

He’s got a prime spot in a pretty good lineup and likely has one of the lowest, if not the absolute lowest, perceived value of any names on this list. So trying to sell high probably won’t net you enough to bother, but every league is different, of course. I don’t think there’s a crash here, but I’m guessing he’ll drop toward the bottom tier of corner guys the rest of the way, as he’s already not contributing in batting average.

Brandon Marsh (45)

It’s always tough to roster a platoon bat in a weekly lineup league, which is why Marsh hasn’t been a very appealing fantasy option. But he’s managed to shed that platoon role, despite posting just a 79 wRC+ against them this year. Still, the extra AB adds to his counting stats.

What Marsh has done actually isn’t much different than what he’s done in the past. The difference is that he has maintained his strikeout rate improvement from last year, and combined it was a career best HR/FB rate, though that rate is barely better than his 2024 when his strikeout rate was over 30%. Surprisingly, the second straight sub-30% strikeout rate is paired with his highest SwStr% since 2022, while his walk rate has plummeted to a career low. Turns out, his O-Swing% has skyrocketed, while his Z-Swing% has jumped, so he’s simply swinging more, leading to fewer walks and strikeouts. That’s not a great approach and you would think would lead to a decline in BABIP, but instead, he’s posted his usually huge mark.

Without any clear improvement in his Statcast power metrics and barely an increase in his FB Pull%, which remains below league average, I would be selling here. Even though he’s starting against lefties now, he still can’t hit them. His defense hasn’t been anything special since 2023, so that shouldn’t be what’s keeping him in the lineup against southpaws. Any sort of extended slump might return him into a platoon role and he’ll quickly go back to replacement level fodder in 12-team formats.

Jordan Walker (5)

Every time I think he’s slowed down, he hits another home run. In May and June, he posted mid-teen HR/FB rates, but he’s back into the mid-20% range in July. His monthly strikeout rate splits are also fascinating, as they’ve jumped up and down each month, including sub-20% marks in both May and July.

His HardHit%, maxEV, and BatSpd always hinted at his ultimate power upside, and clearly whatever he learned at Driveline Baseball must have been a contributor to the light bulb turning on. It’s incredible that along with the power outburst, he has also swiped 13 bags. We have him listed at 6’6″ and 250 pounds, how does he steal bases too?!

Everything points to this being real, though again, impossible to know if he’ll keep up that steals pace, which will affect his rest of season value. He’s also leading all of baseball in RBI, which is team dependent, but batting cleanup behind three above average OBP guys should ensure he remains among the league leaders.

I would personally be curious to see what Walker would bring back in return now, but I would need to be really confident any potential sell high trade is going to increase my fantasy point total, because he looks pretty darn real.

Luis García Jr. (33)

Wait, wasn’t García just having a disappointing season, like yesterday? Then he seemed to hit like 15 home runs in five games and suddenly he’s the 33rd most valuable fantasy player. Yeah, he hit just one home run through April, then another four in May (which is still above his expected pace), before going ballistic in June with 11. In July, he’s already hit four, and that’s come in around half the AB as he had in May, when he also hit four.

His steals pace is actually down, so literally all of this fantasy breakout is driven by the 20 home runs, which is already two more than his previous season high. His HR/FB rate is more than double last year and his career mark. Yet, his Statcast metrics haven’t changed much. His HardHit% is barely up (though still a career high), his Barrel% is up marginally (also still a career high), but his maxEV is already a career best up nicely from his last three seasons. Also, his BatSpd has jumped 1.2 MPH to a career high. Still, none of this seems to support a 23% HR/FB rate, unless he’s suddenly pulling his flies like crazy.

Sadly, he’s not doing that. His FB Pull% is slightly down from last year and below the league average, like he’s always posted throughout his entire career. Shockingly, his flyball Hard% is at the second lowest of his career!

So, his Statcast metrics haven’t moved all that much, he’s not pulling his flies more than last year, and he’s actually hitting his flies less hard than nearly ever before. His xISO is .211 versus a .266 actual mark, so clearly Statcast agrees he’s been lucky in the power department.

All this power has resulted in a crazy 68 RBIs in just 324 PA, only two fewer RBI than his current career high, but in 204 more PA! That’s an insane pace over a full season and one I can’t imagine he could possibly sustain.

He’s a clear sell high for me if you can find any takers valuing him at anything near his current rank.

Jake Bauers (43)

I think he and Mead might be the most surprising breakouts of the bunch this year. Truly out of nowhere to fuel fantasy teams. Bauers was actually a one-time top prospect, ranking 43rd overall all the way back in 2018! Since then, he’s bounced around, counting the Brewers as his fifth team since he debuted that year with the Rays.

He entered the season with a career 87 wRC+ and has posted a 135 mark this year. That’s quite the breakout, and quite the surprise considering he’s already 30 years old. His breakout is being driven by two primary factors — a career high BABIP and HR/FB rate.

Until last year, he hadn’t posted a BABIP above .290, which means he’s never recorded a league average BABIP until last year’s .305. This year he’s at .318, as he’s cut his FB% and IFFB%, though it’s hard to say how much luck is in that number.

He came into the season with a career 12.4% HR/FB rate. This year it’s at 22.5%. His HardHit% has spiked to a fantastic 52.9%, the first time it’s jumped over 50%. He has already recorded a career high maxEV. His Barrel% is actually about the same as last year, and below the elite rate he posted in 2023. His BatSpd has increased marginally, but is at a near elite level. His FB Pull% has been all over the place in his career and currently sits at exactly his career average, which is below league average. But his Hard% on his flyballs has surged to match the second highest of his career.

I think the bottom line here is that Bauers has always had power, but didn’t always have the results to show for it. His Statcast metrics suggest he’s capable of at least a high teen HR/FB rate, though it might come with a lower batting average since I wouldn’t bet on his career best BABIP continuing. He’s also in a true platoon, so it’s going to be difficult to record enough PA to maintain anywhere close to 43rd overall value. However, he has posted a 119 wRC+ in his PA against lefties, so perhaps he’ll shed that role like Marsh undeservedly has.

I really want to like Bauers as I like the skill set a lot. I would probably be hesitant to try selling high, and like Mead, I doubt you could get enough value back to be confident it’s worth making such a swap. His playing time against lefties is really going to help determine what kind of rest of season he has.