Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

NOTES:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the king of the position, though I do feel like 2021 will remain his high watermark. He hit 44% of his 41 HRs in just 28% of his season plate appearances at the two temporary homes they used before returning to Rogers Centre. He is a good bet to get back to .300-30-100-100.

While Freddie Freeman doesn’t always deliver that cornerstone power at 1B, he more than makes up for it with his other four categories, often highlighted by a premium AVG (.325 last yr; .298 career). He even spiked a career-high 13 SBs last year to counterbalance his 21 HRs, his lowest over the last six full seasons.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a great hitter. His strikeout rate is low and he hits the ball very hard. He was really, really good in 2022, but drafting him as the first first baseman in fantasy is risky.

That’s not to say that the other first basemen don’t carry risk. Freddie Freeman is 33-years-old, Pete Alonso hits in a pitchers’ park, and Paul Goldschmidt is 35. Confessedly, we’re gonna be picky with Guerrero in this space. Because of his ADP. When we’re talking about the top-25, scrutiny is a necessary part of the process. You may leave this post thinking Guerrero is worthy of being a top-12 overall pick and the top first baseman. That’s totally fine because Guerrero is fine for that draft slot. The argument here is that we can get a better outfielder or starting pitcher with that pick and wait for first base.

In 2021, Guerrero put together an excellent season. Especially for someone under 25-years-old, let alone just 22. He hit 48 home runs and the Blue Jays lineup helped him to 111 runs batted in and 123 runs scored. He slashed a godly .311/.401/.601 with a .417 xwOBA with a 55.2% hard hit rate and an elite 15.1% barrel rate.

But he came back to earth in 2022.

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With catchers out of the way, we continue to move around the IF, going from the worst offensive position to the best. First base is always both top-heavy and deep, and that is the case again this year. It creates an interesting dynamic where there is big production to be had by adding the top guys, but there is also good value to be had by waiting out the rest of the league and seeing who shows up cheap later in the auction. It creates an interesting strategic choice in which there are a lot of ways to build a team.

As with catchers, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.

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Last week, we kicked things off in our initial 2023 fantasy baseball ranking with a surprisingly fun group at catcher, while also alerting me to a previously unknown (and unexpectedly vociferous) Sean Murphy army. I’m sorry, okay! Let us all now move on in peace to the slowest of the corners, and see what’s happening over at first base. Read the rest of this entry »

As promised, I am continuing to share potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. Last week we covered pitchers; today we cover infielders.  Read the rest of this entry »

With the season upon us, it is time to drop my final edition of my positional ranks. I will continue to update them live on the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon until the season gets underway and in-season as well.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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As we hit peak draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.
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While many expert fantasy players have been drafting and posting their rosters and drafting and posting their rosters and… you get the point…, you may be waiting out the lockout before you schedule your draft. If that’s the case, you’re probably exhausted from all the fantasy content that has been pumped out into the meta-verse and at this point, probably have your mind made up on a few players. Let’s put that theory to the test and let’s see if you can guess who’s who based on only their counting stat projections. This is my second installment of the choose your player game and here are the rules:

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The difference being cited is from my first run of rankings. These are for standard league setups that include 1B, CI, and UT with 20-game eligibility. While I play mostly in 15-team mixers, these wouldn’t change much in 12- or 10-teamers. In the latter formats, I’d elevate injury concerns and small sample guys because the replacement level is much higher. The double- and triple-eligible guys also take a little hit in the shallower formats for that same reason.

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