The Argument Against Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a great hitter. His strikeout rate is low and he hits the ball very hard. He was really, really good in 2022, but drafting him as the first first baseman in fantasy is risky.

That’s not to say that the other first basemen don’t carry risk. Freddie Freeman is 33-years-old, Pete Alonso hits in a pitchers’ park, and Paul Goldschmidt is 35. Confessedly, we’re gonna be picky with Guerrero in this space. Because of his ADP. When we’re talking about the top-25, scrutiny is a necessary part of the process. You may leave this post thinking Guerrero is worthy of being a top-12 overall pick and the top first baseman. That’s totally fine because Guerrero is fine for that draft slot. The argument here is that we can get a better outfielder or starting pitcher with that pick and wait for first base.

In 2021, Guerrero put together an excellent season. Especially for someone under 25-years-old, let alone just 22. He hit 48 home runs and the Blue Jays lineup helped him to 111 runs batted in and 123 runs scored. He slashed a godly .311/.401/.601 with a .417 xwOBA with a 55.2% hard hit rate and an elite 15.1% barrel rate.

But he came back to earth in 2022.

Guerrero slashed a very good (not-great) .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs, falling just short of 100 runs batted in and runs scored. His BABIP fell from .311 to .289. His expected stats really took a tumble. That xWOBA fell to .348 with everything else. His 50.4% hard hit rate was still one of the best in the league, but his 11.2% barrel rate seemed to suffer from the dip.

That near-10% drop in hard hit rate could’ve been the difference between him being of the best hitters in the game to him being a really good hitter at a position stacked with power.

Is Guerrero the juggernaut we saw in 2021 or is he the version of him that we saw in 2022? As always, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. If the 2022 numbers are our floor, that’s great. but only if everyone else hits their floor. If we draft Elvis Andrus and he sucks, it’s of no consequence. But for a top-12 pick, we shouldn’t really care about floor when hitting that floor does damage to our squad because the opportunity cost is so high.

This isn’t just the cost of passing up on better first basemen for their price tag, but outfielders like Yordan Alvarez and his 21.0% barrel rate on a 59.8% hard hit rate or pitchers like Corbin Burnes.

Burnes is only 28 and just logged 10.83 K/9 with only 2.27 BB/9 and 1.02 for a 3.05 SIERA over 202.0 innings. He isn’t just a per-inning wizard like, say, Carlos Rodon. He can log the volume we need from a top starting pitcher.

The concerns about those aforementioned first basemen are legitimate — especially Freeman for the price — but we’re getting discounts on Alonso, Goldschmidt, and Olson.

If we’re gonna cling to 2021, here are the 2021-22 barrel rates for those five:

Alonso, 13.5%
Olson, 13.1%
Guerrero, 13.1%
Goldschmidt, 12.6%

Guerrero doesn’t have a significant lineup advantage over these three guys, either. The Braves are stacked, the Mets are stacked, and the Cardinals are strong.

Steamer has Guerrero’s projected .393 as the best at the position. They could be right. That’s a great reason to draft him in the top-12. I’d rather overdraft Burnes and wait for first base. In a 12-team league, we have both on the swing, but there’s no frickin’ way I’m passing up on Alvarez for Guerrero.