Paul Sporer’s 2022 1B Rankings
I’ll be releasing my first run of positional rankings over the next week or so. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.
Let’s discuss in the comments!
1B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER |
|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman |
| 3 | Paul Goldschmidt |
| 4 | Pete Alonso |
| 5 | C.J. Cron |
| 6 | Matt Olson |
| 7 | Ryan Mountcastle |
| 8 | José Abreu |
| 9 | Jared Walsh |
| 10 | Josh Bell |
| 11 | DJ LeMahieu |
| 12 | Jake Cronenworth |
| 13 | Joey Votto |
| 14 | Alex Kirilloff |
| 15 | Yuli Gurriel |
| 16 | Ty France |
| 17 | Luke Voit |
| 18 | Trey Mancini |
| 19 | Brandon Belt |
| 20 | Frank Schwindel |
| 21 | Rhys Hoskins |
| 22 | Anthony Rizzo |
| 23 | Jonathan Schoop |
| 24 | Nathaniel Lowe |
| 25 | Jesús Aguilar |
| 26 | Rowdy Tellez |
| 27 | Pavin Smith |
| 28 | Yoshi Tsutsugo |
| 29 | Miguel Sanó |
| 30 | Carlos Santana |
| 31 | LaMonte Wade Jr. |
| 32 | Spencer Torkelson |
| 33 | Triston Casas |
| 34 | Lewin Díaz |
| 35 | Bobby Bradley |
| 36 | Darin Ruf 러프 |
| 37 | Bobby Dalbec |
| 38 | Eric Hosmer |
| 39 | Christian Walker |
| 40 | Keston Hiura |
| 41 | Joshua Fuentes |
| 42 | Yandy Díaz |
| 43 | Brad Miller |
| 44 | Seth Beer |
| 45 | Daniel Vogelbach |
| 46 | Travis Shaw |
| 47 | Wilmer Flores |
| 48 | Matt Beaty |
| 49 | Yu Chang |
| 50 | Ryan O’Hearn |
Welp I guess I won’t be keeping Rizzo.
Cron seems awfully high
Playing in Coors is likely part of it.
It’s all of it, tbh. I mean, he’s good, too. If I thought he sucked, I wouldn’t have him there. But a good hitter like him in Coors is huge
Cron over Olson seems bananas to me, and though I’d pick a couple other names before Cron, no one after that seems like a CLEAR choice over him.
I looove Olson, but his status is uncertain right now so I dropped a couple spots for now (he was 4, but I went for Alonso & Cron over him right now).
I know Olson crushes in Oakland so it’s not like he will be ruined by a park, but I just want to see where he goes before settling on him as a top 5 guy right now
Not sure the temporary drop is at all warranted, Paul. I think Olson should be #3 no matter what.
I don’t hate on it if you go that way, but he’s on a little uneasy ground right now w/his situation so I’m playing it a bit cautiously. Really love the player, though.
I think Lowe has more to offer…hope I am not deluding myself
I don’t think you are. I loosely have France-to-Tellez as a tier so Lowe’s upside ranges pretty high. He loses some soft factors like park and lineup which is why he’s toward the bottom of said tier, but I do like the player
Belt’s combined OPS+ over 2020/21 is 165, third in all of baseball behind Soto and Harper. Yes, he may miss time due to injuries but when healthy he is an incredible hitter. At 19th he is undervalued. Wondering if you had expected regression from him but then why rank older players Gurriel and Votto so much higher?
He’s 34 next yr and has major injury issues which I think I just rate more severely than you. Dig the talent, but am I getting even 120 gms? Hard to think so.
Did you rank guys like him (likely will miss time due to injury) based on 120g Belt + 40g replacement level? Or are you only looking at 120g Belt versus 160g $other_1b?
No, I don’t factor replacement value in automatically
Kiriloff seems real aggressive relative to Torkelson, Steamer has monster projects for Tork (129 wrc+) vs Kiri (110). Seems likely he comes up early in the season. I could see him right around Rizzo. Are you worried they keep him down for a while?
Totally hear that re: Tork. Just hoping to get a little more clarity on the Tigers’ plan w/him before moving him up. Agreed he could stretch as high as Rizzo/Schoop if they at least hint at getting him up a few wks into the yr
Max Muncy?
people seem to have bailed on muncy pretty hard due to the “UCL damage” reports. but there was a line in the LAT this week about how the dodgers expect him to be ready for the start of the season. it’s all kinda uhhhh vague right now but if drafts were happening today and he was falling really far i’d personally grab him. so yeah i think he should be on here somewhere at least. even if only in a “remember that he exists and make your own call” slot
Don’t have a real read on him right now so I’m not drafting him in winter drafts unless he comes outside the top 200 at least… maybe 250
What are the chances that the Blue Jays add a 1B in the offseason and move Vlad back to third where he wanted to be?
I’m guessing close to zero. He’s not a third baseman.
I’m with Greg. I just don’t see it.
Its Vlad in the 1st tier all by himself, then Goldy,Olson, Freeman, and Alonso in tier 2 in that order.
Kirilloff’s wrist, even in the minors, persistently hampered until the levy broke. Lost most of his season to surgery. How come there isn’t more hesitation? Don’t wrist injuries extra risk for sliding performances?
Thanks again for the write up, Paul! Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 1B eligible in my dynasty league (Fantrax). Where would you put him on this list? Seems like a lock for 0.770 – 0.790 OPS.
There seems to be a looooot of unflashy first basemen. One could argue that the position is deep, but outside of the top 8, they all just seem to mush together. It’s telling that old guys like Joey Votto and Yuli Gurriel are in the top 15 above a whole bunch of younger hopefuls from not too long ago.
Where would Bellinger slot into these ranks? He’s a hard case to figure out.
Just haaaad to get Ryan O’Hearn in there, huh?
Never quitting him!!!! lol
This looks really top heavy… If I miss out on Vlad or Freddie I’ll take whatever comes my way in that 5-10 range.
First base is pretty bleh at first glance… Mountcastle top 10 oof. At second glance, there’s a lot of upside further down the list– either former stars that fell off/created doubts recently (Voit, Rizzo), old Giants guys who nobody outside the org trusts much yet (Belt, Wade, Ruf), or well-pedigreed young guys who have yet to break out/get promoted to the bigs. They obv won’t all do so, but if your league isn’t super deep it would do to closely monitor those dudes like Hiura, Tork, P. Smith, Nate Lowe, Beer, Vaughn, etc., plus a few less-heralded ones in that class like Lewin Diaz
Josh Bell seems way high while Rhys Hoskins seems low being that I’d draft Hoskins over Bell.
It’s hard to get a read on Torkelson’s projections. He’s projected for a 60 hit tool, and his BABIPs declined at every level last year – his average was pretty bad at AAA though with a BABIP in the 230s. Projections I’ve seen say he’s a .230/.240 hitter, though the usually stingy Steamer has him projected at .259. Not sure what to believe. What’s your read on this, Paul?