First Base ADP Market Report: 3/14/22
As we hit peak draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
None
Top 200 Players Rising
Rhys Hoskins (+14.34)- Hoskins continues to rise as it appears the concerns about his health are unwarranted. He has a ton of power and while the average isn’t good, with the league-wide average being down, his .240 average doesn’t hurt you as much. This could be the season he breaks the 40 homer barrier.
Max Muncy (+15.8)- Muncy’s rise has been in response to good reports about his health and most of this rise was before the most recent news. His price will continue to go up, but I am not buying it. While I have loved Muncy in the past, the risk that he could miss considerable time is too great to take him as a top 200 player.
Top 200 Players Falling
Ty France (-11.04)- I am a bit surprised that France is dropping. Not because I like him, but because I know many in the industry do. To me, he has a bland profile that doesn’t have much upside. I think there is safety in it though. He makes a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out, but so much of it is on the ground. He isn’t a bad pick at the price, but he isn;t winning any leagues.
Top 300 Players Rising
Brandon Belt (+14.64)- Belt is rising as people are buying what he did in a short stint. I am a little more skeptical though. Belt has struggled in the past to stay on the field and is at risk of losing at bats with the platoon happy Giants. I would have liked him more if he had ended up in a different park on a different team.
Rowdy Tellez (+19.96)- Tellez rise is in response to the DH coming to the Nationals league. He is likely to get a fair share of the plate appearances at first base with the added offensive spot. Tellez was quietly good in the second half after being traded to Milwaukee, hitting seven home runs with a .280/.335/.500 for the Brewers. He has a legit chance to be a very cheap 30 homer guy if he can get to 500+ plate appearances and as the team is currently constructed. His biggest risk is platooning, but I don’t think he has proven to be a platoon player yet.
Top 300 Players Falling
None
Others of Note
Darin Ruf 러프 (+50.16)- Ruf is rising with the DH coming to the National League. As the Giants are currently constructed, Ruf would be in line for a lot more plate appearances as the Giants DH. If the roster stays this way, I would love Ruf this year, however, I believe the Giants will add a piece. He is worth a gamble until we see a signing, but I wouldn’t pay a huge price.
| 1/31/22-3/14/22 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/21-11/14/21 | 11/15/21-12/12/21 | 12/13/21-1/30/22 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.05 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 6.11 | 5.46 | 6.42 | -0.63 |
| 22.03 | Freddie Freeman | FA | 1B | 19.17 | 17.92 | 22.68 | 0.65 |
| 52.01 | Matt Olson | ATL | 1B | 43.11 | 40.15 | 51.89 | -0.12 |
| 55.85 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 60 | 46.62 | 56.49 | 0.64 |
| 58.76 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 67.78 | 58.08 | 64.53 | 5.77 |
| 90.59 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 1B | 72.61 | 68.58 | 87.7 | -2.89 |
| 119.29 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 123.28 | 115.69 | 116.68 | -2.61 |
| 119.35 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B, OF | 115.61 | 111.35 | 111.57 | -7.78 |
| 122.43 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 112.72 | 116.88 | 123.3 | 0.87 |
| 126.67 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 122.83 | 122.5 | 124.26 | -2.41 |
| 128.39 | C.J. Cron | COL | 1B | 140.94 | 130.5 | 131.55 | 3.16 |
| 128.68 | Josh Bell | WAS | 1B | 151.44 | 143.31 | 135.28 | 6.6 |
| 134.15 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 156.67 | 144.54 | 148.49 | 14.34 |
| 146.05 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 165.11 | 166.08 | 154.7 | 8.65 |
| 153.87 | Tyler Stephenson | CIN | C, 1B | 173.78 | 158.58 | 154.87 | 1 |
| 154.76 | Ty France | SEA | 1B, 2B | 155.78 | 140.85 | 143.72 | -11.04 |
| 169.71 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B | 98.94 | 109.81 | 185.51 | 15.8 |
| 184.39 | Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B, OF | 178.17 | 169.81 | 178.91 | -5.48 |
| 188.63 | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 1B | 160.44 | 157.04 | 180.64 | -7.99 |
| 193.33 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B | 181.89 | 185.85 | 189.32 | -4.01 |
| 202.28 | Jonathan Schoop | DET | 1B, 2B | 205.28 | 205.35 | 212.21 | 9.93 |
| 213.2 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | 201.44 | 193.62 | 208.79 | -4.41 |
| 219.11 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B | 216.33 | 228.31 | 233.75 | 14.64 |
| 228.16 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 1B | 243 | 252.85 | 231.28 | 3.12 |
| 229.88 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 260.56 | 225.12 | 233.96 | 4.08 |
| 234.93 | Frank Schwindel | CHC | 1B | 232.61 | 227.77 | 228.17 | -6.76 |
| 261.05 | Miguel Sano | MIN | 1B | 273.11 | 264.08 | 264.72 | 3.67 |
| 265.03 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 252.72 | 262.23 | 261.49 | -3.54 |
| 267.19 | Luke Voit | NYY | 1B | 273.28 | 287.31 | 273.13 | 5.94 |
| 275.52 | Jesus Aguilar | MIA | 1B | 283.39 | 279.77 | 282.7 | 7.18 |
| 291.95 | Rowdy Tellez | MLW | 1B | 375 | 379.69 | 311.91 | 19.96 |
| 304.37 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SF | 1B, OF | 301.33 | 302.54 | 307.91 | 3.54 |
| 329.56 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | PIT | 1B, OF | 528.11 | 402.69 | 312.87 | -16.69 |
| 335.43 | Eric Hosmer | SD | 1B | 335.28 | 357.65 | 337.74 | 2.31 |
| 355.24 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 374.61 | 398.23 | 349.87 | -5.37 |
| 368.28 | Pavin Smith | ARZ | 1B, OF | 352 | 348.27 | 356.7 | -11.58 |
| 371.44 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 379.33 | 382.19 | 376.08 | 4.64 |
| 387.65 | Darin Ruf | SF | 1B, OF | 436.56 | 469.38 | 437.81 | 50.16 |
| 397.61 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 407.72 | 408.92 | 390.96 | -6.65 |
| 402.13 | Bobby Bradley | CLE | 1B | 409.94 | 380.35 | 407.06 | 4.93 |
| 404.64 | Keston Hiura | MLW | 1B | 358.56 | 409.27 | 413.81 | 9.17 |
| 432.84 | Carlos Santana | KC | 1B | 430.67 | 437.65 | 425.15 | -7.69 |
| 458.25 | Jurickson Profar | SD | 1B, OF | 518.72 | 478 | 450.64 | -7.61 |
| 470.12 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | 461.39 | 453.15 | 454.11 | -16.01 |
| 474 | Juan Yepez | STL | 1B | 574.39 | 495.65 | 469.98 | -4.02 |
| 477.28 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 534.17 | 517.96 | 480.42 | 3.14 |
| 481.2 | Nick Pratto | KC | 1B | 609.89 | 576.77 | 458.17 | -23.03 |
| 518.25 | Edwin Rios | LAD | 1B | 543.11 | 578.27 | 512 | -6.25 |
| 519.19 | Lewin Diaz | MIA | 1B | 536.11 | 608.88 | 528.98 | 9.79 |
| 520.65 | Brad Miller | PHI | 1B, OF | 531 | 565.5 | 537.74 | 17.09 |
| 530 | Ji-Man Choi | TB | 1B | 546.72 | 602.35 | 532.09 | 2.09 |
| 533.4 | Jace Peterson | MLW | 1B, 2B, OF | 608.61 | 577.38 | 538.25 | 4.85 |
| 583.09 | Matt Beaty | LAD | 1B, OF | 633 | 623.27 | 559.25 | -23.84 |
| 600.93 | Matt Thaiss | LAA | 1B | 745.39 | 747.42 | 666.79 | 65.86 |
| 611 | Sam Huff | TEX | 1B | 608.78 | 612.5 | 588.4 | -22.6 |
| 615.32 | Colin Moran | FA | 1B | 442.06 | 536.35 | 614.36 | -0.96 |
| 622.45 | Yu Chang | CLE | 1B, 3B | 651.44 | 670.81 | 627.34 | 4.89 |
| 667.97 | Eric Thames 테임즈 | OAK | 1B | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 685.73 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | 709.22 | 694.19 | 697.17 | 11.44 |
| 691.51 | Vinnie Pasquantino | FA | 1B | NA | NA | 691.25 | -0.26 |
| 696.72 | Phil Gosselin | LAA | 1B, 3B, OF | 542.61 | 573.27 | 657.19 | -39.53 |
| 710.57 | Daniel Vogelbach | FA | 1B | 685.06 | 711.38 | 717.51 | 6.94 |
| 718.17 | Johan Camargo | PHI | 1B | NA | 736.85 | 726.55 | 8.38 |
| 740.03 | Albert Pujols | LAD | 1B | 743.11 | 721.58 | 735.7 | -4.33 |
| 742.83 | Travis Shaw | BOS | 1B, 3B | 694 | NA | 738.42 | -4.41 |
| 742.85 | roberto ramos | FA | 1B | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 742.91 | Taylor Jones | HOU | 1B | 747.5 | 741.65 | 739.96 | -2.95 |
| 743.75 | Joshua Fuentes | COL | 1B, 3B | 676.56 | 738.5 | 729.72 | -14.03 |
| 746.93 | Ryan O’Hearn | KC | 1B, OF | 733.22 | 744.19 | 747.32 | 0.39 |
| 748.44 | Jake Bauers | FA | 1B, OF | 746.11 | 743.96 | 742.45 | -5.99 |
| 749.17 | Willians Astudillo | MIN | 1B, 3B | 731.22 | 740.35 | 745.34 | -3.83 |
| 749.79 | Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | 1B | 749.22 | 737.08 | 748.89 | -0.9 |
| 750.04 | Justin Smoak | FA | 1B | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 750.33 | John Nogowski | FA | 1B | NA | 747.58 | 748.62 | -1.71 |
| NA | Wyatt Mathisen | SEA | 1B | NA | NA | 748 | #VALUE! |
| NA | Jose Marmolejos | SEA | 1B | 749.22 | NA | 750.25 | #VALUE! |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.