Justin Mason’s Final 2022 First Base Ranks (w/Comments)
With the season upon us, it is time to drop my final edition of my positional ranks. I will continue to update them live on the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon until the season gets underway and in-season as well.
You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
Justin Mason’s First Base Ranks: 3/29/22
| Rank | Player | Team | POS | ADP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 5.61 | Fantastic player, but I have a hard time taking a player without speed that early |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 1B | 19.51 | I love Freeman at his price. One of the few five categories first basemen |
| 3 | Matt Olson | ATL | 1B | 44.16 | Love the landing spot in Atlanta |
| 4 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 52.86 | Goldy is getting older, but he is like a diet Freeman. |
| 5 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 52.98 | Kind of underrated for a guy that could lead the Majors in homers. |
| 6 | José Abreu | CWS | 1B | 90.67 | About as safe as you get. |
| 7 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 129.24 | Love the triple eligibility on a great team |
| 8 | Josh Bell | WAS | 1B | 130.78 | I believe in the talent and he is a small change from another monster season. |
| 9 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 129.2 | Health is the only question mark. |
| 10 | C.J. Cron | COL | 1B | 127.63 | Love Cron, but health and lineup are questionable. |
| 11 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 149.88 | Approach change makes the power surge more believable. |
| 12 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 119.88 | I am a bit worried about the awful average against lefties. |
| 13 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 118.94 | I am a little worried that the playing time is hurt by recent trades. |
| 14 | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 1B | 182.37 | Great that he is returning to NY. Feels underrated. |
| 15 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B, OF | 122.33 | Park change hurts Mountcastle more than anyone else. |
| 16 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | 212.96 | Not much power, but he is a great average guy in a great lineup. |
| 17 | Frank Schwindel | CHC | 1B | 235 | Small sample, but I believe in the skills we saw. |
| 18 | Luke Voit | SDP | 1B | 257.53 | Health is the only question. |
| 19 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 1B | 228.37 | Lowe made real strides in 2021. He is a small tweak in launch angle from a huge season. |
| 20 | Jonathan Schoop | DET | 1B, 2B | 203.22 | I can’t remember such a streaky player that is so reliable. |
| 21 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B | 205.45 | I don’t know what to make of Mancini. I want him to be good, but I worry the power isn’t great. |
| 22 | Ty France | SEA | 1B, 2B | 157.76 | I don’t see the power upside that others do for France. |
| 23 | Rowdy Tellez | MLW | 1B | 295.67 | If he doesn’t platoon, he could have a massive season. |
| 24 | Jesús Aguilar | MIA | 1B | 265.8 | Boring vet that is very serviceable. |
| 25 | Miguel Sanó | MIN | 1B | 259.9 | A lot of power for a cheap price. |
| 26 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 225.59 | Wide range of outcomes. Could be a 40 homer guy or a minor leaguer. |
| 27 | Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B, OF | 184.82 | Health is a huge question mark. |
| 28 | Tyler Stephenson | CIN | C, 1B | 149.2 | Finally gets the full time role and he could get time at 1B/DH. Breakout potential. |
| 29 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 246.65 | Once he is up, he could be great. |
| 30 | Bobby Bradley | CLE | 1B | 417.14 | So much power and so much swing and miss. |
| 31 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B | 219.29 | Injuries scare me too much. |
| 32 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | PIT | 1B, OF | 339.67 | I believe in what we saw after the move to Pittsburgh. |
| 33 | Keston Hiura | MLW | 1B | 404.29 | Swing change is sucking me back in. Has looked good in spring. |
| 34 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SF | 1B, OF | 308.69 | I don’t know that he can get to 500 plate appearances. |
| 35 | Carlos Santana | KC | 1B | 428.31 | Will start until Pratto is ready. |
| 36 | Eric Hosmer | SD | 1B | 361.45 | NO |
| 37 | Yandy Díaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 364.2 | Will he ever lift the ball? |
| 38 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B | 142.78 | I can’t draft him until I see him playing. |
| 39 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 391.22 | Can he get back to a full time role? |
| 40 | Nick Pratto | KC | 1B | 476.16 | I think he is up quickly and could be good right away. |
| 41 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | 462.22 | Old, but plays. |
| 42 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 375.47 | Weak side platoon |
| 43 | Darin Ruf | SF | 1B, OF | 390.96 | Weak side platoon |
| 44 | Pavin Smith | ARZ | 1B, OF | 371.14 | About as boring as can be. |
| 45 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 474.69 | Waiting in the wings if Dalbec struggles. |
| 46 | Ji-Man Choi | TB | 1B | 564.16 | Strong side platoon |
| 47 | Colin Moran | CIN | 1B | 615.06 | Good park, but likely just a bench bat. |
| 48 | Matt Beaty | LAD | 1B, OF | 566.96 | If Muncy misses time, he could play more. |
| 49 | Jurickson Profar | SD | 1B, OF | 457.2 | DH could help him get playing time. |
| 50 | Brad Miller | TEX | 1B, OF | 545.57 | Could be a sneaky deep league player. |
| 51 | Edwin Rios | LAD | 1B | 476.55 | Love the potential if healthy. |
| 52 | Lewin Díaz | MIA | 1B | 541.49 | Is now the time? |
| 53 | Juan Yepez | STL | 1B | 469.24 | Blocked, but a deep sleeper |
| 54 | Daniel Vogelbach | PIT | 1B | 621.14 | Could find some regular playing time in Pittsburgh. |
| 55 | Ryan O’Hearn | KC | 1B, OF | 683.27 | Too much competition now. |
| 56 | Albert Pujols | STL | 1B | 711.49 | Back in STL, but probably just a short side platoon guy at this point. |
| 57 | Willians Astudillo | MIA | 1B, 3B | 704.96 | Will he get any playing time? |
| 58 | Yu Chang | CLE | 1B, 3B | 613.08 | Utility infielder. |
| 59 | Travis Shaw | BOS | 1B, 3B | 653.08 | Doesn’t have much value in Boston. 0 |
| 60 | Matt Thaiss | LAA | 1B | 599.73 | Addition of Suzuki means he probably won’t catch much in LAA. |
ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues during the. month of March
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Half these comments feel outdated
yeah sure seems like a lot of comments weren’t updated
Ya think?
“No matter where Olson ends up, it’ll be a better park and team.”
“Where he (Anthony Rizzo) signs will determine his value moving forward.”
I don’t know what you’re talking about.
Freddie Freeman, 32 y/o five category guy: 6-7 steals projected
Vlad Guerrero Jr., 23 y/o four category guy: 3 steals projected
Wow, the margin for five category guys is very thin!
3 steal difference and the guy with 3 fewer basically won the triple crown last year
“hard time taking Vlad this early” is just crazy imo
Based on what he’s said in many Sleeper and the Bust podcasts, I think he mostly meant he strongly prefers taking a 5-cat bat in the 1st half of the 1st round because of how hard it can be to get speed later.
I’d think if Vlad slid anywhere near the last quarter of the 1st round, he’d grab him and then see if he can still grab a (lesser) 5-cat bat on the turn…
His liking of Freeman is mostly based on the ADP price, which is probably someone he could grab on the turn in the 2nd round (assuming Vlad doesn’t really slide that far for him to have grabbed in the last quarter of 1st round). He wouldn’t be taking Freeman at all either if that means using a 1st round pick (and actually passing on Vlad to do it).
As for Freeman being 5-cat, well, yeah, it’s just blurb that indicates he likes the steals… and even if it’s just 6-7 vs 3 in the projections — and he might not quite agree w/ the projections — it is an easy 2x the steals… and honestly, I personally would think it’ll end up a somewhat bigger diff than just 3-4 steals between them…
Anyway, context is very important to understand such short blurbs me thinks…
ranking muncy below tsutsugo, hiura and carlos santana at this point is undeniably a ranking
Muncy could play 60 games and I’d still take him over full seasons of all 3 of those guys. It’s really odd to note injury concerns throughout, and then only banish muncy, the guy with some of the best stats over the past few years, to the sub-hiura territory.
Luke Voit at 18 and Muncy at 38 is an absolutely bonkers ranking, for example.
i actually like tsutsugo and hiura a lot as late dart throws! and yet,
Hard to say what exactly Muncy will do even though he looks more and more like he could go the full season… but at what actual performance level though?
Yeah, spring training games don’t usually tell much, but it’s not like he’s shown at all that he’s actually all that close to 100% — and he thought he was ~85% himself just before spring training began…
Personally, I ended up just dealing him away (on the last year of his 5-year contract) in my salary dynasty league to be replaced by a combo of Voit + Tsutsugo + whomever on my squad might well gain 1B, eg. Sheets, maybe (remotely possible) even Yordan Alvarez… I also have Brandon Lowe for 2B (and Gorman waiting in the wings on my farm); otherwise, I probably would’ve kept Muncy more for 2B than 1B. Too bad they apparently won’t let Bellinger spend (enough) time back at 1B as I’m pretty much stuck w/ him (and a big contract) there…
sure, it’s a fair point to suggest that a performance level hit from the injury is a risk even if he’s on the field. hardly a given though. and i dunno what you think we’re supposed to take away from him going 2 for 10 in early spring action; to me it’s encouraging that he’s gotten hits, no setbacks reported, they’re throwing him straight into playing 2B and 3B rather than DHing him. no one seems worried
It would be good to see him hit the ball hard (maybe at least to the warning track) at least a few times w/out any issues me thinks. So far, he just has a couple singles and nothing more, ie. no long flyouts nor particularly hard groundouts it seems.
Given it’s his glove-hand elbow that was injured, that probably doesn’t make playing 2B/3B any more problematic than 1B. Also, since he bats oppo-handed vs playing defense, it might not affect his power that much, but might still cause him to swing w/ a bit more restraint than usual even if no actual pain.
But yeah, no telling how much it’ll end up affecting his batting so far…
Is Dominic Smith just considered an OF? I know he had a tough year last year, but seems like he should be listed.
Becoming difficult to take the Justin ranks seriously
unfortunately it feels like FG is just an opportunity for him to plug his patreon these days 🙁
Wondering where Connor Joe would rank if he qualified and actually starts say 140 games — Cron isn’t exactly a model of health himself afterall, and seems like the Rockies would likely let Joe resume 1B if Cron goes down at some point or takes a breather as the DH…
I’m trying to cobble together something w/ Voit + Tsutsugo as the main guys at 1B (and maybe sporadically spelling 1 of 2 UTs or even OF in Tsutsugo’s and Joe’s case) — I also have Sheets who might (re)gain 1B at some point if/whenever he gets 5 games there…
I’m also thinking longer term since this is a somewhat deep, salary dynasty (18 teams x 40-man rosters), and all these guys I’m getting very cheaply, except Voit who’s still pretty affordable (at less than 5% of my budget), but not dirt cheap… I’m, of course, much stronger in other parts of my offense, so my squad is still a real contender despite the 1B weakness…
Guessing Joe has a good chance of (re)gaining 1B before too long since the Rockies could always slide him in as defensive replacement for Cron late in some games even if they avoid playing Cron as DH most days…
I’m guessing they’d play Cron at DH more regularly if they again decide Hilliard isn’t ready enough yet and just keep Grichuk and Blackmon mostly in CF and RF — Hilliard certainly hasn’t looked good so far this spring K-ing ~50%(!) of the time…
Has the disintegration of the Reds lineup changed the view on Votto, expect it’ll impact the counting stats a bit. Not much protection either on top of some age related risk.
May want to add in the comment section for Walsh that he may lose time against lefties with Upton getting reps at 1B in ST.
And may want to refresh your comment section in general for a number of other players.
Maybe that won’t change anything much particularly at the spot he’s ranked. He was pretty awful against LHPs anyway, and those (probably just against the tougher LHPs) would be the only PAs he’d lose out vs Upton…
Other than maybe Voit (now that he’s landed somewhere pretty good for his value), I’d still much rather have Walsh than everyone else ranked lower on this list…
But yeah, his various comments definitely need some updating.. and he should probably start moving Muncy up some now that Muncy looks at least ok enough (though still hasn’t proven how close he’ll perform to his pre-injury norm)…
This article is outdated by at least 10 days. Not to mention the comment, “NO” for Hosmer. This could be the laziest article published I’ve ever seen on FanGraphs.
If there was a laziest article leaderboard, Justin would dominate it.
With (extremely outdated ) comments… Unfortunately, the entire list loses credibility when the comments are so antiquated.
I like Cronenworth and his positional eligibility as much as the next guy. Would love to get him as my MI or even starting at 2B…but the 7th best option at 1B is just mind bottling.
No Schwarber ranking? I believe he has 1B eligibility in most standard leagues.