Some tricky spots out there for Tuesday and we’ve already seen some strong bets flop (thanks, Detmers!) so be careful.
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Fascinating board this week with several studs going as well as some legitimately solid streamers.
I’m just not 100% sure on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s volume which is the only reason he’s not Auto Start.
Reid Detmers is a guardrail-to-guardrail guy: in the minors when he’s off, but basically must start once he’s back on. He had 3 brilliant starts in the minors before returning and dropping 2 more gems against playoff teams (LAD, MIN). The HOU start is a bit scary just because of his volatility but I love Detmers down the stretch (at TEX in the final wk).
I was worried about Luis Gil and cut him when he hit the IL (for Detmers, though, so I’m not losing out — Monday Night Paul here — I have indeed lost out, quite a bit in fact. Thanks, Reid.) thinking he could be limited down the stretch and perhaps shelved as a starter until October entirely (meaning 1-3 IP type stints once back). But maybe the 2 weeks off was just what he needed as he’s come back with a pair of gems, allowing just 1 ER with 12 Ks in 11 IP. Now he gets a brilliant trio of starts to close out the year with the at SEA, at OAK 2-step this week and then PIT comes to visit in the final series of the season, though a Win won’t be easy if the Pirates stick to schedule and run Paul Skenes.
Matthew Boyd couldn’t take advantage of his CHW start, but I’m more than happy to run him after seeing the 2.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 22% K-BB in 6 starts this year. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, too, with just a 0.8 HR9.
Frankie Montas is back! I barely considered him in even the deepest of leagues during his Cincy run, but he’s found his groove again with Milwaukee: 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 17% K-BB in 45 IP across 8 starts including 6+ IP in each of the last 5. It’s a tough draw, but Wins and Ks chasers should be considering him.
Bobby Miller is back on the radar with at MIA/COL on the docket despite how scary he has been all year. The Angels tattooed him 2 starts ago so good matchups aren’t guaranteeing anything, but it’s hard to find a better pair of matchups and supporting cast combo than this setup.
Reese Olson gets thrown right back into the fire with trips to KCR and BAL after just 5 rehab innings in 2 starts. They were shutout innings with just 2 hits, 2 walks, and 6 Ks, plus let’s not forget how good he was prior to the IL stint (3.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15% K-BB in 103 IP). At the very least, I like stashing him for the CHW start in the final weekend if you prefer to let him tune-up this week.
If you have questions about anyone, let me know in the comments!
Here is today’s chat transcript:
Short board does offer some chances to stream and the 2-start board will be up Monday morning!
9/15/24
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I have once again been called up from Triple-A for the spot start with Jeff away, as I have minor league options remaining. This article approximately follows his methodology, focusing on players widely available at the start of this week (I use a <75% owned in the Main Event threshold). The players are ordered for redraft leagues roughly by my rest-of-season preference–only two weeks to go (!)–grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. I tend to put a lot of weight on recent playing time trends and popular weekly (e.g., Razzball) and rest-of-season projections, including the various systems published at FanGraphs, and my own system. I play in a lot of NFBC 15-teamers, so that’s the context I have in mind when writing this. Happy bidding!
Here’s a board for the weekend! I’ll be in the comments as much as I can throughout the weekend if you have any questions.
Angels
• Niko Kavadas (DH) only starts against righties.
• Bryce Teodosio (CF) started in four of the last five games.
Astros
• No regular first baseman with Jon Singleton, Yainer Diaz, and Victor Caratini starting there over the last four games.
• The outfield has been a mess with Chas McCormick on the IL, Kyle Tucker playing DH, Yordan Alvarez should be DH, and the corpses of Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel are still rostered.
Athletics
• Ryan Noda (vs RHP) and Tyler Nevin (vs LHP) are in a first base platoon.
• Each of Nick Allen, Tristan Gray, and Max Schuemann started at third in one of the last five games.
Blue Jays
• A mess with George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the only regulars.
Guardians
• Lane Thomas started eight straight including one against a lefty.
• Jhonkensy Noel started in only five of the last 10 games.
Mariners
• Steady with the second (Jorge Polanco and Dylan Moore) and third base (Josh Rojas and Luis Urías) platoons.
Orioles
• Cedric Mullins hits second with Adley Rutschman hitting fifth.
• Coby Mayo started in only four of the last 10 games.
Rangers
• Steady with Ezequiel Duran started in seven of the last 10 games.
Rays
• Jonny DeLuca started in nine of the last 10 games.
• Jonathan Aranda with six starts (four batting second) in the last seven games.
Red Sox
• Triston Casas doesn’t start against lefties and I’m not sure why with a career .754 OPS versus lefties and .842 OPS versus righties.
• Since coming off the IL, Trevor Story started in five of six games.
• Connor Wong with eight straight starts while splitting time between catcher and first base.
Royals
• Robbie Grossman has only three starts in eight games since joining the team.
• Paul DeJong with just six starts in the last 10 games.
• Since coming off the IL, Hunter Renfroe started in four of six games.
Tigers
• Jace Jung (vs RHP) and Andy Ibáñez (vs LHP) are in a third base platoon.
• Kerry Carpenter (vs RHP) and Justyn-Henry Malloy (vs LHP) are in a DH platoon.
• Trey Sweeney only faces righties.
Twins
• Edouard Julien only faces righties but leads off when in the lineup.
• Willi Castro has only three starts in the last six games.
• DaShawn Keirsey Jr. started in center field for the last two games while batting at the end of the lineup.
White Sox
• Same garbage, different week.
Yankees
• Jasson Domínguez started in three of four games since being promoted.
Braves
• Ramón Laureano started three straight over Jarred Kelenic including two against a righty.
• Luke Williams saw time at second base when Whit Merrifield was banged up.
Brewers
• Jackson Chourio leads off with Brice Turang batting ninth.
• Gary Sánchez started in four of five games with three at DH.
Cardinals
• Thomas Saggese started three straight, played 2B and SS, and hit seventh.
• Jordan Walker started in 11 of 12 games since his last promotion.
Cubs
• Steady with Dansby Swanson batting second now.
Diamondbacks
• Josh Bell started in five of eight games since Christian Walker came off the IL.
Dodgers
• Chris Taylor (vs LHP) and Gavin Lux (vs RHP) remain in a second base platoon.
Giants
• Marco Luciano and Brett Wisely are splitting time at second base.
• Jerar Encarnacion started in three of four games including his first game at first base.
Marlins
• Xavier Edwards has not started for three games and there is no news as to why. Editor’s Note:
• Rookie Javier Sanoja has started three straight games.
• Nick Fortes with eight straight starts at catcher.
• Kyle Stowers is the only outfield regular with Cristian Pache, Jesús Sánchez, David Hensley, and Griffin Conine sharing the other two spots.
Mets
• With Jeff McNeil on the IL, Jose Iglesias is now the regular second baseman.
• Starling Marte has only started in four of the last seven games. Their outfield has several guys rotating in and out with Nimmo as the only regular.
Nationals
• Steady with Dylan Crews up to hitting second.
Padres
• Xander Bogaerts is playing shortstop with Jake Cronenworth moving to second, Donovan Solano joining playing first, and Mason McCoy heading to the bench.
Phillies
• Steady with speedster, Johan Rojas, getting more playing time (seven starts in the last 10 games).
Pirates
• Bryan De La Cruz started in only six of the last 10 games.
• Billy Cook started two straight in the outfield. Across two minor league levels, he hit .275/.375/.474 with 17 HR and 25 SB in 493 PA. Projections agree on the power-speed combination but don’t buy the batting average with values around .220 AVG.
Reds
• Noelvi Marte has started in only three of the last ten games with Santiago Espinal starting in all ten.
• Amed Rosario started losing playing time with two starts in the last five games.
• Jake Fraley has started 11 straight including two against lefties.
Rockies
• Hunter Goodman (catcher-qualified) started in five of the last nine games.
• Nolan Jones started in six of the last 10 games.
This weekend, I have to travel a decent distance for my aunt’s funeral, so I’m off not going to be available for a few days. For the weekend, Jordan Rosenblum will have a waiver wire article article but I went ahead and looked into some players who could be or not be options.
Note on hitters. If in a Roto league, roster who you need. If power, Matt Wallner. If speed, Otto Lopez. If all around, Tommy Pham. I haven’t spotted any major value movers since MLB teams made waiver wire claims before September 1st. Check out my Big Kid Adds where the managers in these competitive leagues added Trevor Story (a drop for me), Grant McCray (power and speed, batting average sink), or Jonny DeLuca (regular starts).
Spencer Horwitz: He’s been on fire over the last month hitting .317/.386/.633 with 6 HR. His stats are up because he’s being benched against most lefties (.916 OPS vs RHP, .511 OPS vs LHP). Next week, Toronto has only four righties on the schedule so the volume might not be there. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s an odd thing, trying to rank baseball players before the season begins. There’s so much that can happen in between your last click of the “Post” button and the start of the regular season. Pre-season rankings are like a message in a bottle that gets gently pushed out to sea, or in my case, thrown overboard in choppy seas after the contents of the said bottle have been drained, stuffed with the best note I could muster and chucked out into the ether. It’s not easy, that’s what I’m trying to convey. In this post, I’m going to focus on what went well.