Deep League Starting Pitchers: Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson

Roki Sasaki (270 AVG)

Now that it’s clear that Sasaki will be posted, his ADP has shot up.

Everyone has covered his talent level. The only bit I will add is these pitcher comps of other arms who came from Japan. The resulting comps fit nearly perfectly except for Sasaki being younger and throwing harder.

NPB Comps

MLB results

Here are some starters with similar Steamer projections.

Name: K/9, BB/9, ERA
Clarke Schmidt: 8.8, 2.9, 3.94
José Soriano: 8.8, 3.8, 3.92
Gavin Williams: 9.1, 3.4, 4.11
Charlie Morton: 9.0, 3.6, 4.14

Good but not great comps.

Brady Singer (302 ADP)

The 28-year-old righty returned to form (3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.5 K/9) after struggling in 2023 (5.52 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.5 K/9). The main reason behind the changes was that he threw his sinker (4% SwStr%) fewer times (51% usage to 41%) while adding a four-seamer (6% SwStr%). Also, he leaned even more (43% usage to 46%) into his above-average slider (17% SwStr%).

The biggest issue with Singer is his inability to get out lefties. Lefties posted an .855 OPS (career .784 OPS) against him last year while righties hit just a .563 OPS (career .672 OPS). Teams that can stack the lineup full of lefties eat him up. In two starts versus Boston, he allowed 8 ER in 8 IP. He’s tried to add a changeup to neutralize lefties but it has never stuck.

Singer is a known quantity who should be benched in a quarter of his starts. He has some nice upside if he can find a way to get lefties out.

Brayan Bello (306 ADP)

The 25-year-old righty tweaked his arsenal, had an up-and-down season, and in the end, posted near his career norms (4.49 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.5 K/9).

He started the season by dropping his four-seamer while throwing his slider (15% SwStr%) and changeup (19% SwStr%) more. The problem is that he could only throw his sinker (4% SwStr%, 58% GB%) for strikes and his walk rate increased from 2.6 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9.

His groundball nature (51% GB%) will lead to more hits than the average pitcher. When the hits are combined with the walks, the WHIP is unrosterable in roto leagues. His 1.36 WHIP did as much damage to a roto category as a 4.69 ERA.

There were no signs of him controlling the walks with a 3.8 BB/9 in the second half and a 4.3 BB/9 in September.

One other issue to monitor is his fastball velocity which dropped twice last season. Once right before a lat injury in May and then over the last month.

Finding an upside for Bello is easy, he just needs to get the walks under control. The downside is a repeat of 2024.

José Soriano (343 ADP)

The 26-year-old righty enters the 2025 season with several question marks after posting a 3.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9. He doesn’t control the plate with strikeouts or by limiting walks (3.6 BB/9). His 11% K%-BB% ranks 103rd out of 126 pitchers with 100 IP just behind Kyle Gibson, Austin Gomber, and Patrick Corbin.

Soriano gains his edge with his 60% GB% (0.6 HR/9), the third highest value among the same 126 pitchers.

Soriano’s number one weapon is a 98-mph fastball that generates a 72% GB% and 7% SwStr%. Additionally, he has a curve (15% SwStr%), splitter (16% SwStr%, 56% GB%), and four-seamer (4% SwStr%). Finally, he introduced a slider late in the season (20% Swstr%). He mixed up his pitches until June 1st and then went almost exclusively sinker-curve.

His results improved with the simplification (fewer ineffective four-seamers). Up to June 1st, he had a 3.86 ERA (3.92 xFIP, 58% GB%). After that point, a 2.96 ERA (3.66 xFIP, 62% GB%).

The main reason that Soriano isn’t being drafted sooner is that he spent the last month and a half on the IL with “arm fatigue”. Right before going on the IL, he was at a career-high 113 IP with his previous high being 82 IP in 2019 and just 65 IP last season.

The other concern is his 3.6 BB/9 after struggling with walks in the minors.

Season: BB/9
2018: 6.8
2019: 5.6
2021: 7.4
2022: 2.8
2023: 6.2

Besides 2022, walks have been a huge issue.

There is a ton of upside with Soriano. He could throw more innings and possibly push 150 IP to 160 IP. He could adjust his pitch mix to record more strikeouts by throwing his secondaries more. Great add at this price.

Ryan Weathers (356 ADP)

The 24-year-old lefty had a solid half-season with an 8.3 K/9, 3.63 ERA (4.03 xFIP), and 1.18 WHIP. He missed half the season with finger soreness. He experienced a velocity drop of ~1 mph from Opening Day until he went on the IL.

Going over his arsenal, he might have a little upside if he moved away from this four-seamer (5% SwStr%, 34% GB%, 40% usage) and leaned into his groundball-generating sinker (4% SwStr%, 60% GB%). Besides the two fastballs, he throws a slider (16% SwStr%) and change (19% SwStr%).

Last season, he got his walks under control going from a 4.5 BB/9 in 2023 to 2.5 BB/9.

If Weathers can repeat his 2024 production, especially the walks, he’s a great value at this point. His 15.3 K%-BB% sat right between Max Fried and Tobias Myers.