Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 30th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Joe: Thoughts on Dylan Crews?

Justin Mason: I really like Crews and I do think he will be good, but he is still young and there are questions to me if the power translates this early. I am a bit afraid of the ADP going up to the point where he becomes too expensive to gamble on.

Kate: Happy holidays Justin!  How long do you think Robert Suarez holds the closer job in SD this year?

Justin Mason: I do. No reason to think he will lose it unless he really struggles in season

Randy: Cubs a 90 win team?

Justin Mason: I don’t think they are. Maybe they add more and get better luck outcomes, but I think they haven’t improved enough

JLPicard: No Question. Just a Happy New Year and all the best. Thanks for the chats.

Justin Mason: Happy New Year to you as well!

mitch: thoughts on adrian del castillo for 2025?

Justin Mason: I don’t know if he can stick at catcher long term personally, but I hope they can continue to get him enough ABs there to not lose his eligibility for a bit. The difficult part is Moreno isn’t going anywhere for a while, so he will need to hit to be fantasy worthy and pick up DH abs. Probably won’t be much of a factor for fantasy this season unless Moreno gets hurt.

Squawky: 15 team roto, convince me that I should keep an $8 Holliday if it means I’d have to cut a $8 Vientos, $3 Winn, $5 Stott, $4 Baz, $3 Taj, $10 Ragans, $8 Schwellenbach,$8 Joyce

Justin Mason: Depends on how long you can keep him for at that price. I wouldn’t keep him over any of these guys if his keeper status is not long term.

Guest: If you could give Paul a new year’s resolution, what would it be?

Justin Mason: Do a main event with Justin Mason

Leone: Steamer projects Brian de la Cruz at  236 PA, .245 with 8 HR and 2 SB. Is that in the ballpark, or would you take the under or over significantly?  Why so few PA?

Justin Mason: I wonder if that has just not been updated since his signing. No reason to think he can’t get 400-500 plate appearances with how the Braves are currently constructed.

Trader Bob: i have Luzardo, Astros Luis Garcia, Mahle and McCullers ranked in that order as injury returners. Correct? Also do you think Alonso might defect to the Giants?

Justin Mason: I think that is the correct order. I would love to see the Giants land Alonso as long as the contract isn’t too long, but I just don’t see it happening.

Izzy: How many games do you expect to see Betts at 2b? (I realize they say he’s back at SS)

Justin Mason: I could see 10-20 as the most likely outcome, but he didn’t play there a ton after april last season, so it could be 0

Stephen: With 2B thinning out very quickly at the top (esp. where Betts is not eligible), how do you value Jordan Westburg?

Justin Mason: I am not a big Westburg guy, but I am intrigued by him as an accumulator if he can stay healthy. Also, I am waiting to see what the dimensions in Camden look like after they move the wall back in a bit in left field. He could be the guy most helped by it.

Steve: Hi Justin: Love your work and insights. I am in a 12 team Roto Home League, 6×6, OBP and QS with a $25M budget for carryovers and our auction. We have a unique format with a auction first and then a draft. We can carry 4 players and deduct their cost from our $25M budget.  My choices are: Judge at $6.4M, Lindor at $4.2M, Lawrence at $1M, Matt McLain at $1M, Jordan Westburg at $1M, Hunter Greene at $1M, Shane McClanahan at $.4M, and Joe Ryan at $1M. I prefer to focus more on hitting over pitching. The players I pick to carry over in 2025 cannot be carried over in 2026. What do you suggest?

Justin Mason: Judge, Lindor, Lawrence, McClanahan

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Who are your favorite post-hype picks for 2025?

Justin Mason: Shane Baz, David Festa, Jordan Walker, Brooks Lee, Joey Cantillo, Yariel Rodriguez, Max Meyer, Simeon Woods Richardson, Edouard Julien

Stephen: I expected the Mets to sign more elite free agents even after Soto. They need Pete to even call the team improved over last year, no?

Justin Mason: I think they are improved with just the signing of Soto, but I would think they end up with Alonso again and it is a huge offseason. I fully expect him to sign there.

Nick: I accidentally hit enter before entering the names: King, McClanahan, Springs and Woo, 12 team points league

Justin Mason: Rephrase the question so I make sure I fully understand it

Ted: Biggest FA surprise for you thus far this offseason?

Justin Mason: Got to be Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks. I don’t know that I heard any rumors about them as a landing spot prior to the signing.

Ted: What are you expecting from Evan Carter this year? What kind of odds on him regaining the form of a few years ago?

Justin Mason: Really hard to know what he is at this point. Is he healthy? Is he going to learn to hit lefties? Will he play every day? I think the price is decent enough to gamble on, but I am unsure he is the player we saw in his small sample in 2023

Oddball Herrera: Holliday or McClain for 2B in a keeper league?  Or the dark horse K Campbell.  The prospect lists say Holliday but I remain skeptical

Justin Mason: McLain for me in the short term. In the long term, I think it is holliday

Kim: A few youngster would-you-rathers (for a keeper league) – Schwellenbach or Jobe? Neto or Colt Keith?

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach and Keith

Aldo Rayne: You prefer Jorge Soler or Lars Nootbaar for Ottoneu FG Points?  Short term more important than long term here

Justin Mason: Nootbaar for  me

Stephen: I have the option to keep an all-sophomore outfield of Wyatt Langford, Jackson Merrill, and Jackson Chourio. What am I most likely to regret, and what other profiles do I need around them?

Justin Mason: You will regret nothing with that outfield. Those are all studs.

Aldo Rayne: Do you think Trevor Larnach will at least be the strong side of a platoon for the twins to open the year?

Justin Mason: I do and I think he is going to hit in the middle of the lineup and is a nice value in fantasy right now for deeper leagues.

Justin Mason: I need more questions!

Nick: Fuck my fat fingers

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Guest: best bargain signing of the offseason so far?

Justin Mason: I think it would be between Gleyber Torres and Christian Walker. Love a low risk investment in a guy that has been a top tier second baseman. Walker isn’t cheap, but he has really good skills and is made for that park. When Joc Pederson gets 2 for $37 getting Walker at 3 for $60 feels really nice

Nick: In a 12 team keeper points league would you be comfortable going 3 years on King, McClanahan, Springs or Woo. Prices are either $9 for one year, 8$ and 13$ for 2 years or 7$-12$-20 for 3 years

Justin Mason: Give me McClanahan here

Justin Mason: King is interesting if you can opt out if he gets hurt

Stephen: Where does Moncada wind up and does he have anything left?

Justin Mason: At best he gets a minor league deal. Maybe he ends up in Japan or Korea tbh

Mel: How do you rank the M’s starters? Feels like Gilbert may have stepped past Kirby last year

Justin Mason: Gilbert, Kirby, Castillo, Miller, Woo

RAGBRAI: Does Kerkeri g have a chance to be Phillies closer? If so, when?

Justin Mason: I think he does if Romano falters or gets hurt. I would definitely be stashing him early in the season. I could also see them just doing the committee thing again though

Guest: Do you think Festa spends the whole year in the Twins’ rotation?

Justin Mason: I do

Guest: Does Josh Lowe have a chance to become a full-timer or will the health and LHP splits continue to get in the way of that? Not that a 20/20 outfielder is a bad thing, but I wonder if there’s ever gonna be a next gear for him.

Justin Mason: Hard to project he will improve against left handed pitching at this point. The Rays probably won’t give him much of a chance to. He only got 50 PAs versus southpaws last season

Paul: I was debriefing my ’24 season recently – I knew Chapman had a good year, don’t think I fully realized quite how valuable he was. What’s your expectation for next year? Can he keep the speed while putting up another 30ish HR?

Justin Mason: I think the speed is fluky, but the power and gains he made in contact should stick around.

Kate: Josh Bell is essentially an everyday guy in Washington this year (at least to start), right?

Justin Mason: I think he should be

Real: Jordon Walker at $5 in NL-only $260 10-team league. Keep him (I don’t have a lot of keepers), drop him or sign for $10 for 2 years?

Justin Mason: I would keep him at $5

Kate: Is there a non-zero chance that Finnegan ends up somewhere he can still be the closer?

Justin Mason: I still think he does. Once the rest of the field gets figured out, there will be a team that should bring him in for cheap

Ed: Jeremy Pena was a nice little surprise last year – you expect similar stats this year, or a little regression likely?

Justin Mason: I think he can keep a lot of the gains from last year and be a really nice accumulator. I do worry that the Houston offense in general will be down so the runs are RBIs may dip

Kenny: I fell ass backwards into scooping Brenton Doyle on a whim last year and dude basically carried me over the second half. But he’s gotta fall back to earth this year, right? Dude was just a strikeout machine prior to last season. Not to mention seems like he’s prone to injury (aka dives all over the outfield constantly)

Justin Mason: Doyle made massive changes and gains in contact. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player make such huge improvements in contact like that. I am betting on it being legit as it didn’t disappear throughout the season.

Anselm: Keeper question – I can keep three, in a roto obp/qs league with 260 auction budget – Jazz at 23, Lugo, Wells, Cowser at 3 each, Trout at 4, and Rooker at 8. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Trout, Jazz, Rooker

Amish Man: How do you value Bo Bichette in a dynasty league? Still a core piece? A middling guy? Get what you can now and sell?

Justin Mason: He may be the most difficult player to project right now. I don’t know what he is. I just locked him down to a big money deal for three years in a keeper, but I am hoping he has a hot start and I can flip him.

Kate: Where does the Teoscar signing leave Pages in terms of a role to start the year?

Justin Mason: in AAA

RAGBRAI: If the Cubs move to the front of the pack in the NLC with getting Tucker what does each team in the division need to do to keep pace?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it does move them to the front of the pack. I still think the Brewers are better.

Moves that would seperate them from the pack
Brewers sign Bregman
Cubs sign Jeff Hoffman
The Reds sign Santander
The Cardinals sign Jack Flaherty
The Pirates sign Jack Flaherty

Justin Mason: I don’t think any of these happen fwiw

Squawky: Squaky back, (15 player Roto).  Last keeper, Rengifo $6 or Festa $8?

Justin Mason: Rengifo

Kate: What are Bryan Ramos‘ chances of grabbing a starting role for the White Sox right out of spring training this year?

Justin Mason: Would need a big spring I could see it happening. Maybe 25%?

Squawky: Moncada to the Angels?

Justin Mason: lmao

Justin Mason: point awarded

CjBaseball16: Fantasy thinking… What is your ideal top 3 in the yanks order next season with Torres and Soto gone?

Justin Mason: It won’t happen, but give me a Yankees lineup that start like this:

Bellinger
Chisholm
Judge
Goldy
Volpe

Justin Mason: It will probably be Volpe, Jazz, Judge

Frank: I have Holliday entering year two, will have him through 2027 in a six-keeper, 12 team points league. Worth keeping over Lawrence Butler, Riley Greene or Mark Vientos? (I have Royce Lewis at 3B and Jackson Merrill in the OF

Justin Mason: I am not keeping him over Butler. Would keep him over the others

comish4lif: I’ve played rotisserie style fantasy baseball since the beginning.

But what I think would be fun would be running season long simulations. Load up my fantasy league’s rosters and generate a 3 game series daily.

Is there a service out there that gets anywhere close to that?

I tried OOTP once and when I turned it on, the OOTP GM for the other 12 teams made a flurry of free agent transactions and messed evything up.

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is, but I would love to see it

comish4lif: As a Nats fan and an owner in a 12 team NL only league, my perception is that Josh Bell is done. Am I correct? Even a little?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is done. He was quietly really good when he covered for Walker in Arizona. He isn’t a stud, but he could be decent in washington

Stephen: I’m always thinking of new rules to keep my friends league fresh and competitive, esp between players who are more active/savvy and those who are more casual. Lately unbalanced trades have been cause for commotion. Initially I took a “laissez faire” approach as commissioner and had everyone deal with the consequences of whatever deal was accepted. After some especially outrageous deals, we switched to a 6/10 veto rule, but it’s also not working well (people voting in their own best interest, veto trolls, etc). The resounding complaint usually being from other owners: “I would’ve sent you more! Why didn’t you shop around?” I had an idea to create a “counteroffer window” after every trade. Once a trade is accepted, it starts a 2 (or 3) day timer during which everyone in the league can make a counteroffer for any player in the original deal. If any counteroffer is accepted, the original deal is nixed and a “new” counteroffer window begins for the new deal. If no counteroffer is accepted, the original deal proces

Justin Mason: So I am not a fan of vetos, but I am in a league that has a trade committee and that works out fairly well. Pick people you can trust to do things the right way

CjBaseball16: What would you like to see your giants do next?

Justin Mason: rebuild

CjBaseball16: Are you as high on Lawrence Butler next year as the industry tends to be leaning right now?

Justin Mason: I am. I am a big fan and think a lot of his gains were legit last season

Squawky: Last one and I’ll stop Squaking.  Who would you keep, Winn $3 2-years, Stott $5 1-year.

Justin Mason: Stott

comish4lif: My league (12 team, NL only, auction) uses Wins + Quality starts. We replaced Wins a number of years ago.

With starter Wins and Quality starts decreasing every season, what are Leagues using these days to focus some value on starting pitching?

Justin Mason: I have seen some leagues go with innings pitched, but I think the correct answer is wins and just adjust to what is happening in MLB. Things will continue to evolve and players need to be able to do that with their strategies and approaches.

mitch: thoughts on andre pallante for 2025?

Justin Mason: boring innings eater that can be a decent DC guy but he allows a ton of contact that could make him a disaster from start to start.

Justin Mason: Alright! That is all the questions and time I have.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: and dont forget to sign up for TGFBI or TGFBI satellites at www.TGFBI.com

Justin Mason: happy new year!