Deep League Starting Pitchers: Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles.

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer

Skipped
Roki Sasaki

DJ Herz (305 ADP)

The 23-year-old lefty had a surprising season with several ups and downs. He threw two of the season’s best games when he struck out 13 and 10 batters. Also, he had five clunkers when he allowed four runs per game and didn’t make it to the fifth inning. In those five starts, he lost all control with a 5.1 BB/9, but in the other 14 starts, he allowed a 3.3 BB/9.

The problem with the bad starts is that they were evenly distributed with at least one every month and the seven-earned run outburst being in his second to last start. While the blowups were all over the place, his overall results degraded as the season went on with a 22.7% K% in June and July to a 14.4% K% over the last three months.

I can’t find the event(s) that caused the decline besides his inability to throw strikes as seen by his drop in Zone%.

Simply, Herz’s control/command is inconsistent.

Herz is being drafted so high for his ability to miss bats. His three main pitches (four-seamer, change, and slider) and his rarely thrown curve (3% usage) each have a 13% SwStr%. Among the 138 starters with at least 80 IP, his 10.8 K/9 ranks 10th between Cole Ragans and Tarik Skubal. Is that good?

Herz’s future could be at the extreme ends of high strikeout/high walk starters. On the positive is Blake Snell. On the negative, it could be Reid Detmers. With the high upside, I like Herz in waiver-wire leagues where he can be dropped if the control doesn’t come. In draft-and-hold formats, he’ll fit certain builds, especially when a manager needs strikeouts and/or already has a nice base in WHIP.

Chris Bassitt (306 ADP)

For his career, the 35-year-old righty has been able to use a varied arsenal (five pitches between 7% and 38% usage) and great control (2.9 BB/9) to limit hard contact (11th lowest HardHit% from 2021 to 2023, min 100 IP) and outperform his ERA estimators (career 3.59 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 4.31 SIERA).

The perfect balance started to fall apart this season with a 3.7 BB/9 (highest since 28 IP in 2016), a 37% HardHit% (four-year high), and his lowest swinging-strike rate since 2018 (8.7%). The combination put his 4.16 ERA right in line with his ERA estimators (4.08 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.31 SIERA). It seems like age might finally be catching up with him.

I wish an explanation for the decline existed. There was no late-season surge to hold onto but in September he posted his lowest strikeout rate (19% K%) and highest walk rate (13% BB%). He didn’t vary his arsenal as much as in previous seasons, but he’s still a league leader (with Civale).

I’m valuing Bassitt as if he’ll repeat his 2024 season knowing that 2023 is the upside with an unknown downside.

Aaron Civale (311 ADP)

The 29-year-old righty rotates between good and bad seasons with 2024 being a bad one. Here is ERA’s since his debut.

Season: ERA
2019: 2.34
2020: 4.74
2021: 3.84
2022: 4.92
2023: 3.46
2024: 4.36

Two items led to this season’s struggles. The main factor was a 1.6 HR/9 which propelled him to a 4.74 FIP. Part of the reason behind the home runs was a career-low 36% GB%.

The other major factor was a career-high 2.9 BB/9. Extra runners on base for the extra home runs is never a good combination.

There was no improvement over the season with his strikeout rate dropping from 9.0 K/9 in the first half to 7.3 K/9 in the second. The decline might be related to him tiring out since he broke his career high in innings pitched by almost 40 IP (124 IP vs 161 IP).

Like Bassitt, Civale has a diversified arsenal with only his slider possibly getting league-average results last season (14% SwStr%, 35% GB%). The sum is more than the parts but these parts aren’t even average.

As for a 2025 value. One method is to believe in the every-other-year thing and buy in for 2025. The other would be to go with more of an average and assume 100 IP of a low-4.00’s ERA with an 8.5 K/9 and 1.20 WHIP.

Cody Bradford (311 ADP)

The 26-year-old lefty’s season was solid with a 3.54 ERA (3.82 xFIP), 1.01 WHIP, and an 8.3 K/9.

Bradford is basically a two-guy with a fastball (9% SwStr%) and average-average change (15% SwStr%). He dabbles with a curve and slider but both have a swinging-strike rate lower than his fastball. The comps on the slider are decent.

If he were to throw the slider more there would be some strikeout upside.

With Bradford’s limited arsenal, it’s surprising he gets these results but a 1.5 BB/9 helps. His walk rate was the 6th lowest in 2024 (min 70 IP as a starter) with 13 of the 14 low walk-rate starters posting a sub-3.84 ERA (Miles Mikolas at a 5.35 ERA). A low walk rate goes a long way, especially in a low run-scoring environment.

Bradford is going too late in drafts, especially for managers looking for upside. His 18.9% K%-BB% ranked 28th among starters (70 min innings). Pitchers with similar K%-BB% rates are Michael King (73 ADP), Grayson Rodriguez (96 ADP), Brandon Pfaadt (163 ADP), and Carlos Rodón (123 ADP). Bradford is going way after them. All Bradford has to do is repeat his 2024 results while starting 30 games and he’s easily a top-30 starter with an ADP after 300.