Deep League Starting Pitchers: Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford

Skipped
Roki Sasaki

Hayden Birdsong (302 ADP)

The 23-year-old righty, dropped below 300 so I’ll examine him before looking at the later picks. Birdsong debuted last season with a 4.75 ERA (4.21 xFIP), 1.39 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9 over 16 starts. His struggles were directly linked to his 5.4 BB/9 (41% Ball%, equivalent to a 5.4 BB/9).

He has always struggled with walks:

Season (level): BB/9
2023 (AA): 5.1
2024 (AA): 3.7
2024 (AAA): 6.0

He showed no signs of improving last season with a 4.7 BB/9 in the first half and 5.6 BB/9 in the second. I’ll roster everyone I’ve featured before and after Birdsong. He’s built to destroy a team’s ratios.

Zack Littell (333 ADP)

The 28-year-old righty had a solid season with a 3.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 in 156 IP. He’s not fancy with his 92-mph fastball but refuses to walk anyone (1.8 BB/9).

He attacks batters backwards. His most thrown pitch is a slider/cutter with a 10% SwStr%, The next is his splitter (18% SwStr%). All of his pitches create flyballs (34% GB%) and those flyballs turn into home runs during the warmer months.

Month: HR/9
Apr: 0.8
May: 0.9
Jun: 2.3
Jul: 1.6
Aug: 1.7
Sep: 0.7

Another issue with Littell is that his fastball lost nearly 4 mph last season.

After checking for a Spring Training velocity rebound, I like the idea of rostering Littell to start the season but then moving on once the weather warms up and his velocity starts tailing off.

Matthew Boyd (351 ADP)

The 33-year-old lefty was solid in 39 IP last season with a 2.72 ERA (3.89 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9. His 19.9% K%-BB% ranked 26th among starters with at least 30 IP. Besides a useless sinker, his arsenal graded out great.

Pitch: SwStr%, GB%
Four-seamer: 11%, 19%
Change: 18%, 34%
Slider: 18%, 39%
Sinker: 4%, 38%
Curve: 17%, 50%

He gets a ton of swings-and-misses and besides the curve, everything gets hit into the air. The extreme flyball nature has kept the hard contact under control. His 6.7% Barrel% and 37% HardHit% rank in the 37th and 70th among the 221 starters with at least 30 IP.

The biggest question with Boyd is his health. The last time he threw over 80 IP was in 2019 (185 IP).

In a redraft environment, Boyd is a must-roster for the upside. If he gets hurt, just cut him and move on. In a draft-and-hold or best ball league, he’s a little trickier with no way to replace his broke ass.

David Peterson (352 ADP)

The 29-year-old lefty experienced some left-on-base luck (82% LOB%) up until September 1st leading (2.83 ERA (4.39 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 1.8 HR/9). In September, he found the strike zone, dropped his walk rate to 2.2 BB/9, and posted a 20% K%-BB% (3.16 xFIP).

The walk rate decline seems great but he’s dropped his walk rate several times to this level and it has always bounced back up.

The strikeouts always seem to be there with his four-seamer (12% SwStr%) and slider (17% SwStr%) doing most of the work.

In a roto league, his career 1.37 WHIP does as much category damage as a 4.75 ERA.  In a points league, he is more tolerable since the strikeouts help offset the walks. His starts will be matchup-based and I can’t see myself drafting him at this price.