Deep League Starting Pitchers: Nelson, Brown, Lowder, & Megill

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers

Note: I started writing these and then stopped away from a while. The ADP changed quite a bit so the last three aren’t in perfect order with some arms now between them.

Ryne Nelson (304 ADP)

I’m unsure how the 26-year-old righty put up a 4.24 ERA (3.98 xFIP), 1.25 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9 in 150 IP. Most of the improvement came in the second half when he cut his ERA from 4.98 (4.52 xFIP) to 3.23 (3.24 xFIP).

First, walks weren’t behind the second half improvement, he had them under control the entire season. His walk rate dropped from 2.9 BB/9 in 2023 to 2.0 BB/9 last season.

All the improvements came from his strikeout rate going from 6.1 K/9 to 9.4 K/9. He just leaned into his fastball.

His success hinged on his fastball being over 95 mph. In the starts when his fastball averaged 95 mph or less, he posted a 5.3 K/9. In the ones when his fastball averaged over 95 mph, it was a 9.2 K/9.

The issue is that his velocity jumps around quite a bit from start to start.

Overall, he’s rosterable in draft-and-hold formats but his talent is maxed out without an average or better secondary.

Ben Brown (359 ADP)

I was a fan of the 25-year-old righty going into last season and he didn’t disappoint with a 3.58 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 in 55 IP. The problem is that he keeps getting injured as seen by just the 55 IP this season. Here are his season totals since being drafted.

Season: IP
2017: 14
2018: 56
2019: 13
2021: 16
2022: 104
2023: 92
2025: 55
Total: 350

Over seven full seasons, he has never thrown over 104 IP. A projection of 100 IP is a reasonable upside play.

When on the mound, he dominates with a 96+ mph fastball and a plus-plus curve (25% SwStr%). Occasionally, he mixes in a changeup.

Besides the injuries, the Cubs might permanently move Brown to the bullpen limiting his value. I’ll ignore him until he shows up healthy to Spring Training and has a defined role.

Rhett Lowder (374 ADP)

The 22-year-old righty posted a 1.17 ERA last season over 30 IP, but that’s where the positives end. Even without allowing a single home run, he still posted a 3.10 FIP but with a 4.73 xFIP and 5.16 SIERA. He doesn’t strike out enough batters (6.5 K/9) to have a 4.1 BB/9. His 6.3% K%-BB% is comparable to Cal Quantrill (746 ADP), Michael Lorenzen (603 ADP), and Taijuan Walker (749 ADP). There are tons of low-strikeout, high-walk starters available later in the draft. There is no reason to take one this early.

It’s tough to find any positives. His 38% Ball% points to a 3.8 BB/9 … better but still a drain. His slider grades average with a 14% SwStr% (51 botOverall, 104 Pitching+). The one stat I’d focus on is his 2.0 BB/9 in the minors before his debut. Maybe he can get it back.

Another issue he’ll need to overcome is that his release point is all over the place. His four-seamer might was released half a foot higher than his sinker. He changes release point based on the hitter’s handedness.

A more consistent release point would most likely lead to fewer walks.

Like with Brown, I’m not interested in dealing with him on a draft-and-hold team. In redraft, I might be interested if he starts throwing strikes in Spring Training. It’ll be tough to find out about his release point with only one Spring Training park in Arizona having public StatCast information.

Tylor Megill (390 ADP)

The 29-year-old righty struggled and was demoted twice to AAA. After his second one, he had a 5.17 ERA (4.22 xFIP), 10.5 K/9, and 1.43 WHIP (4.2 BB/9). Over six starts (CHW, BOS, TOR, WSN, PHI, ATL) beginning on August 30th, he posted a 2.32 ERA (3.13 xFIP), 10.5 K/9, and 1.13 (2.9 BB/9). He returned to the majors over that last month with several changes.

Before even his first demotion, he changed his release point by moving a foot closer to third base.

With the change of release point, he added an amazing sinker that he started throwing 20% of the time.

With the 70% GB%, he can hope to drop his high Barrel%. Over the past four seasons (min 300 IP), his 9.4 Barrel% ranks 19th out of 156 pitchers. Over that time, he posted a 1.4 HR/9.

It’s not all rainbows and unicorns with Megill. The Mets have already added three starters this offseason, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, and Clay Holmes. Megill might have a tough time starting the season in the rotation, especially since he has a minor league option remaining.

Overall, Megill should be rostered in all formats for the chance that his late-season adjustments stick. A 20% K%-BB% from a starter is top-30 material.