Mike Podhorzer’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap
October 6, 2026
It’s bold prediction review time! Refresh your memory with my original theses driving these predictions.
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Jeff Zimmerman’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap
David Banks-Imagn Images
Here is my bold predictions piece from March, but let’s dive right into the recap:
1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.
Right idea, wrong player.
Wood ended up with just 179 K this season after missing most of August.
Colson Montgomery stepped up with 227 K to beat the previous high held by Mark Reynolds by four strikeouts.
0 for 1 Read the rest of this entry »
Don’t Undervalue Your Bullpen
Over a fantasy season, it’s hard to trace results back to the decisions or actions you took that led to that result. We take so many actions from keepers (if your league has them), to the draft, to trades, to FAAB or waiver moves, to lineup decisions, that parsing what mattered and what didn’t can be impossible.
Instead, I find it is more productive to evaluate things the other direction – look at decisions you made or actions you took, determine how they impacted your final results, and then decide if you did something right and repeatable or wrong and avoidable. That is how I started the analysis of my trade for Tarik Skubal. And that’s why I am diving into my bullpen in Ottoneu League 1.
I felt I had a strong team, with a good lineup and a top-tier rotation. I finished 4th. That’s not terrible – we pay out the top four spots and I still get bragging rights over eight managers, many of whom I have competed with for nearly two decades. But it isn’t what I hoped. And the bullpen might be why.
Mining the News (10/2/26)
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Overall
• Lance Brozdowski discussing eight breakouts. Twenty-four minutes well spent.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1541 – NFBC Postseason Contest Preview
by Paul Sporer
October 1, 2026
10/1/26
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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NFBC POSTSEASON CONTEST
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Hitters Who Played Through a 2026 Injury
Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
With the regular season over, it’s time to find out how the hitters who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain performed. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits (detailed reasoning on why this occurs), they continue to underperform their next season’s projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list. Read the rest of this entry »
JVL’s 2026 Lessons Learned
I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.
Were Early Season Locators Just Hot Hands?
In my first article for Rotographs, I dug into a premise that always puzzles me at the beginning of the season. What do you do with the seemingly low end starting pitchers who are off to hot starts?
I noted how sometimes, they can stay hot for the full season, citing Rick Porcello’s Cy Young season in 2016 and more recently, 2025 standouts like Kris Bubic, Shane Smith, and Tyler Mahle.
I set the parameters for this type of pitcher around a variety of the statistics that fantasy managers look to when determining the staying power of a starting pitcher.
“We want to find pitchers who are suppressing runs and locating, but who may be considered unsustainable due to underlying metrics, specifically around the GIF making Stuff+ and K-BB%. To capture this, we’ll focus on pitchers with Stuff+ below 100, a Location+ above 100, a K-BB% of 17% or less, and an ERA below 3.00.”
Here was that list as of May 1 this season.
2026 End Of Season Closer Report
Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Recently, I asked for help to clarify each team’s initial closer. Now, it’s time to get to the data (2025 report). Read the rest of this entry »
Five Personal Lessons From the 2026 Fantasy Baseball Season
I’ve written a couple of late-season articles on overperformers and underperformers based on projected versus earned value. As someone who spends plenty of time examining pitchers, my fantasy teams admittedly struggled in pitching points. My team’s pitching ratios exploded due to blowup outings from Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, and others.
On the hitter side, I rostered plenty of veteran players that might be seen as boring ones. Common hitters on my roster included Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Bryan Reynolds, and Seiya Suzuki. In one 12-team league, I started with Ronald Acuña Jr., Garrett Crochet, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Geraldo Perdomo.
On another 12-teamer, I went with Shohei Ohtani, Treat Turner, Ketel Marte, William Contreras, Hunter Brown, Suzuki, Carlos Estevez, Corey Seager, Alex Bregman, and Spencer Strider with my first 10 picks. Unsurprisingly, that team struggled across the board.
I’ll walk through a few lessons from my draft and in-season strategy from the 2026 fantasy baseball season.