Rookie Check In: Hitters With Small Samples and Tools

We’ve covered several rookie-eligible starting pitchers and hitters throughout the past few months. Now, we’re examining five more rookies with small samples and tools. When we say tools, we’re usually talking about power and speed. As usual, we’ll provide recommendations for keeper or dynasty leagues based on the current data. 

Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants

Bryce Eldridge’s playing time was spotty when he was initially called up, but over the past month, he has been playing consistently. Not only has Eldridge’s playing time increased from part-time to a full-time player, but he is also moving up the lineup to the two-hole.

Eldridge was No. 16 on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospect List, with 70-grade power being the calling card. No surprise given when you watch Eldridge at the plate, he has the build of an NFL linebacker, listed at 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds. Sometimes, hitters with plenty of power struggle to make contact, however, Eldridge’s 79.6% contact rate and 9.1% swinging-strike rate indicate quality plate discipline. He tends to pull the ball (44.3%) often into the air (18.6% pulled air rate), though he is showing power to all fields, including three home runs to over 405 feet to centerfield. 

Eldridge boasts above-average bat speed (73.6 mph) with a high 7.9% barrel rate per plate appearance. Among hitters with 50 batted ball events, Eldridge ranks 54th in Exit Velocity 50 or EV50 (102.3 mph). EV50 is a better measure than hard-hit percentage since it’s the average of the hardest 50% of a player’s batted balls. Other hitters with a similar EV50 include Shea Langeliers, Luke Raley, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Julio Rodriguez.

The OOPSY Peak projections have Eldridge at 28 home runs and a .248 batting average. That’s slightly better than the STEAMER600 projections for Eldridge (23 HR and .231 batting average). Most of the rest of the season projection systems seem to be lukewarm on Eldridge’s playing time, so they have only 14-15 home runs. And, given Eldridge’s .341 BABIP, the projection systems don’t expect him to continue to post a .285 batting average. 

With a locked-in role in the top-third of the lineup, Eldridge has the power to post 35-40 home runs consistently, even if his home park isn’t favorable for left-handed hitters (last in HR Park Factors). I would be looking to acquire Eldridge in keeper or dynasty formats.

Henry Bolte, OF, Athletics

Henry Bolte’s hot start in Triple-A and early-May call up led to a lot of hype and some big FAAB bids. Since his promotion, Bolte has been locked into the starting centerfielder spot while batting in the bottom third of the Athletics’ lineup. Though Bolte wasn’t on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospect List, evaluators had him with 80-grade speed. After stealing 44 (2025) and 46 (2024) in the minors, Bolte has already swiped nine bases this season. 

Bolte’s .436 BABIP is fueling his .308 batting average and production. He often had BABIPs north of .400 throughout his minor league career, thanks in part to his speed. Interestingly, Bolte struggles to make contact with a 67.7% contact rate while swinging and missing at a 16.3%. He ran higher swinging-strike rates with contact rates below 70% in his minor league career, as well. That’s a bit concerning and worth monitoring, especially if he struggles to make contact and put balls into play. 

To further add to the wildness of Bolte’s profile, he boasts an elite bat speed (76.9 mph) with a 63.7% groundball rate. Hitters with a 75 mph bat speed and a single-digit launch angle include Junior Caminero, Oneil Cruz, Jac Caglianone, Bolte, and Jake Bauers.

Bat speed can translate to exit velocity, but it doesn’t necessarily lead to barrels and Bolte has just a 3.6% barrel rate per plate appearance, due to his struggles to hit the ball into optimal launch angles. Bolte has juicy raw tools, though with that contact profile it’s fair to expect some bumps along the way.

Bolte’s OOPSY Peak projections have been more favorable than STEAMER600, with 17 home runs, 32 steals, and a .242 batting average. STEAMER600 has Bolte with 12 home runs, 22 steals, and a .229 batting average. There could be a 15/30 season without Bolte’s peak outcomes, making him an enticing upside option in deep keeper and dynasty formats. Bolte’s defense should keep his bat in the lineup even if he struggles at the plate, since he ranks in the 80th percentile in Outs Above Average, 92nd percentile in Arm Strength, and 100th percentile in Sprint Speed. 

As a fantasy manager who can be a sucker for tools, Bolte intrigues me as a potential acquisition in keeper or dynasty formats.

A.J. Ewing, OF, Mets

A.J. Ewing has been hitting in the middle of the Mets’ lineup and playing quality defense in centerfield. He rocks an 85th percentile Outs Above Average and 89th percentile Arm Strength. With 70-grade speed, Ewing stole 70 bases in the minors last season. He has a high stolen base opportunity rate (24%) and has converted 70% of his attempts. 

Ewing has a mediocre 78.4% contact rate and 9.3% swinging-strike rate. With elite speed (96th percentile Sprint Speed), he often runs higher BABIPs (.352), boosting his batting average potential, but Ewing lacks power. He has just a 3.9% barrel rate per plate appearance and 70.5 mph bat speed. Hence the single-digit home run projections. 

The OOPSY Peak projections have Ewing with 14 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a .260 batting average. However, STEAMER600 provides a more pessimistic view, with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a .239 batting average. I probably believe more in Ewing’s stolen base projections for OOPSY Peak as the floor, with STEAMER600 giving us a more reasonable home run expectation. 

If Ewing can find more power, it could turn into a Brice Turang-type profile. The defense will help keep his glove in the lineup. That’s the type of hitter I would suggest buying in keeper or dynasty. 

Owen Caissie, OF, Marlins

Owen Caissie was No. 62 on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospect List, as one of several players who previously debuted in the majors, though it was a sample of just 27 plate appearances. Caissie flashed power in the minors and in MLB he boasts a 7.8% barrel rate per plate appearance with a 102.3 mph EV50 (No. 46). He has been pulling the ball more often (33.3%), especially in the air (15.8% pulled air rate). However, Caissie has shown all-field power, so he may not need to lean into the pull-heavy profile. 

Like many other power hitters, Caissie struggles to make contact. Caissie has a below-average 67.3% contact rate with a 15% swinging-strike rate. That has led to a 39.2% strikeout rate and a .228 batting average. Throughout the minors, Caissie has run high BABIPs, so there’s a chance he raise the batting average. But as long as his contact rate hovers below that 70% threshold, he’ll need to destroy the ball when he does make contact to have any success.

The Marlins like their toolsy outfielders like Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Kemp Alderman, who struggle to make contact but hit the ball hard. The sneaky part of Caissie’s profile could be his speed and athleticism, with a 74th-percentile Sprint Speed. He has a 12% stolen base opportunity rate, which isn’t high, but could help him reach double-digit stolen bases over a full season. 

Caissie’s OOPSY Peak projections have him with 22 home runs, four stolen bases, and a .258 batting average. He has been deployed as a strong-side platoon option, which could limit his upside. There are tools to dream upon for Caissie, but we’ve also been chasing hitters like Jesús Sánchez for a while. 

If you’re a sucker for power, like me, I would consider buying Caissie in keeper or dynasty formats, though it can be risky.

Tristan Peters, OF, White Sox

As a journeyman prospect, Tristan Peters finally received his chance to play regularly with the White Sox. Peters’s .344 BABIP is fueling his .286 batting average, and most projection systems expect it to regress. He has shown decent plate discipline, with an 80.5% contact rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. Peters is pulling the ball at an absurdly high rate (55.3%), which could have diminishing returns. 

But a 24.2% pull-air rate is helping Peters tap into his power, despite weak the exit velocity numbers. He has just a 3.2% barrel rate per plate appearance and a 91.6 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (No. 194 out of 258 qualified hitters).

Peters grades out well from a speed (86th percentile Sprint Speed) and defensive (98th percentile) standpoint. His defense should help keep him in the lineup. Unfortunately, the speed hasn’t translated into a high volume of steals for Peters. Double-digit home runs and steals are within the range of outcomes, but that’s more of a deep-league option. 

It’s a fun story for Peters, but it’s more of a deep-league streaming hitter than anything reliable long term.