Archive for Featured

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.

Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.

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Earlier this week when I detailed what is sure to be the most important human versus machine debate our society will face, I found that the projection robots very narrowly edge the ADP market when it comes to predicting fantasy performance. That analysis, though, was based on a half-season of 2026 data with a hint that there might be more to come.

This is that follow-up. My goal here was to conduct a broader analysis on more data to see if the conclusions held up, and it turns out that they did.

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Right now, the Major League level seems about as full of young talent as it ever has been. High-profile prospects are more prepared than ever to make the leap, skipping past the slow grind of the minor leagues to make an immediate impact at the big-league level. This season, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt have proven it: the former made the All-Star roster, and the latter absolutely should have been included.

Of course, bat speed is not a guarantee of success. The two examples I gave, McGonigle and Wetherholt, have both had great success without elite bat speed, sitting right around league average in the metric. But as indicators go, it can be a useful one. As we can see from the top end of this chart, bat speed can give you a strong platform to build on.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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We’re back with another rookie check-in, covering several rookies that have been making an impact in fantasy baseball leagues. The theme of today’s article is the examination of several left-handed starting pitchers. Two of these rookies have been performing well. The third pitcher has been struggling, but was a highly ranked prospect. 

We’re examining their strengths and weaknesses, notable parts of their arsenal, stuff, and command, intending to provide a recommendation for whether we should be buying, selling, or holding in keeper or dynasty leagues.

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In fantasy baseball, it’s sometimes safest to avoid platoon hitters. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyways. And in many cases, that’s the right advice. 

During drafts, hitters tagged with platoon risk, like Jarren Duran and Oneil Cruz, are often best avoided, as their upside is severely capped. In shallower leagues, when chasing upside and  racking up counting stats is particularly important, they should be especially eschewed. 

But there are formats and circumstances when platoon bats are worthwhile.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

2-x

• Henderson is coming off the IL (back) so I hedged and just went 2-x. He’s a 3-x pitcher when he’s fully healthy, but as I always mention, everyone has their own strategies about guys off the IL.

0-1 x

• Ober is also off the IL (elbow). He’d been pitching pretty well except for the start right before the injury so I’m willing to give him some leeway there, especially since it was at PIT – one of the scariest spots for righties this year.
• Feltner got moved off yesterday’s which is great since he avoided the Dodgers and now gets a more palatable matchup at SFG.
• Keeping the IL return train going, Junk is returning (shin) from over a month off. His May really shows you the kind of volatility you’re getting into with him: 1, 4, 7, 8, 1 ER in his 5 starts. Probably want to see one here, but SEA is sitting 24th vR over the last two weeks, well off their season mark, so maybe it’s a soft-ish landing.
• Hey, it only took like 70 bad starts in a row for me to stop recommending Perkins! I still think he’s an interesting talent, but he’s completely unstartable at home and very rarely startable on the road. He’s going to cook my Tigers because I’m talking this mess, but I’m not starting him anywhere.

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Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: Again, I noticed almost no good options and it showed in the players added. Normally, I write up the players added in five or more leagues, so I included a few guys added in just four leagues.

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We’ve had about a month to digest the Swing Timing and Miss Distance Leaderboards on Baseball Savant. Like with any new metric, there’s probably some noteworthy information and some noise. Let’s by looking at league averages across as a starting point. Here are the the league averages for these metrics across all pitches:

• Average Miss Distance: 2.67 inches
• Flawed Percentage: 7.5%
• Perfect Contact Percentage: 22.6%
• Tied Up Percentage: 8.8%
• Flailed Percentage: 26.3%
• Early Percentage: 21.8%
• Late Percentage: 14.1%

That will provide context for each metric as we dig into specific pitch types, in the table below. Forkballs, splitters, changeups, and breaking pitches (sliders, curves, slurves, sweepers) tend to lead to a higher average miss distance. Meanwhile, the fastball types (cutters, sinkers, four-seamers) generate misses of roughly two or fewer inches. 

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Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

• Grayson Rodriguez should be off the IL any day.

RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Injury: Lower back tightness
IL date: June 15 (15-day IL)
Expected return: July 10
Status: Threw 5 1/3 innings in Triple-A rehab start on July 4, allowing one run on four hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Is expected to return to start on July 10.

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